Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[L00b 441]

28 minutes ago, trastrick said:

Putin needs nothing from the West, except the incompetence and the weakness of their leadership, who he can intimidate and exploit,  with threats of nuclear war,  and bribery.

 

The U.S. allowed him to take over Ukrainian Crimea without a fight and have stated repeatedly, they will not intervene militarily with his latest aggression. He thtreatens Nukes, they threaten "more sanctions" 

 

 As for bribery, Europe refused NATO membership to Ukraine, because they won't stop buying  Putin's Fossil Fuel Oil and Gas, which is largely financing his opportunistic aggression, even today, while hypoctically decrying the slaughter from afar.

 

An open invitation to any evil totalitarian tyrant to grab what he wants.

 

Recognizing such reality, is not in any way supporting Putin's agenda. Actually the opposite is true.

 

(…)

You have something in the above, but IMHO you are wrong to dismiss the ongoing fundamental change to geopolitics in western quarters as “encouraging Ukrainians in a vain cause”.

 

The solution is not to coerce Ukraine into servility by withholding assistance.

 

The solution, pursued since the first day of the war, is to shore up Ukraine as much and best we can, for however long Ukraine is willing to fight for its independence and can continue to do so, whilst strangling Russia’s economy to hinder its capacity to finance this military adventure.

 

This is the bit which you game theorists lose sight of: unlike chess pieces, when the cannons stop, the destroyed khaki stuff stays destroyed, and the KIA/WIA soldiers stay KIA/WIA.
 

In that context, after the last 6 weeks of fighting, Russia’s military is spent. Putin cannot send anymore, without leaving his Eastern borders wide open to any and all comer. That’s why Russia is moving what’s left of its beaten up BTGs in the north, right back to Donbas. And militarily, that’s the worst thing you can do with units that are, to all extent and purposes, combat ineffective.

 

What the West needs to do, is still more - of the same. And that’s precisely what it is doing, looking at latest reports (CZ tanks and APCs, AU troop transports, heaps more Javelins/Stingers/etc. all being delivered to UA right now).

 

Harder sanctions would be nice, though. De-Swift every last RU bank, seize every last oligarch asset (like RU did with £-bns’ worth of West-owned airliners last week or the week before), expel every last RU diplomat and oligarch WAGs, stop ONG payments <etc>. The works. We’ve done Covid, this is nothing compared to its cost.

[trastrick 866]

50 minutes ago, RJRB said:

Unfortunately negotiated settlements only ever come about after years of strife and even then resistance fights continue.

The will to resist Russia comes from the Ukrainian people .

Zelensky represents the determination of the people not to give up their independence and I see no sign from any Ukrainians to act differently.

An east /west split may eventually be the result,but how many enforced partitions around the world have provided a lasting solution.

I fear that some level of conflict will exist for a long time to come As is the case in many hot spots around the world.

 

 

The will to resist has limits.

 

Confidence or hope of victory or outside intervention from allies, will soon dissipate if none is forthcoming.

 

The image of over 4 million Ukrainian refugees, (10% of the population?) many young and able bodied,  fleeing the country is not a sight to inspire "confidence", and the fact  that Western nations have stated repeatedly there will be no military intervention, will gradually weigh heavily on "hopes of victory".

 

Zelensky sees his potential "friends" in NATO actually trading with his enemy, Russia, for their Fossil Fuel Oil and Gas dependency, which is financing the Russian aggression against his country, and is obviously discouraging.

 

Those Russian bombs and tanks and missiles devasting the Ukraine, are courtesy of the $billions Europe is paying to Putin.

 

"The EU buys so much Russian energy that it has paid Russia nearly $19 billion since the start of the Ukraine war. In 2021, the EU bought 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)"

 

Not a great strategy to deter the Russian Bear. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by trastrick

[trastrick 866]

16 minutes ago, L00b said:

You have something in the above, but IMHO you are wrong to dismiss the ongoing fundamental change to geopolitics in western quarters as “encouraging Ukrainians in a vain cause”.

 

The solution is not to coerce Ukraine into servility by withholding assistance.

 

The solution, pursued since the first day of the war, is to shore up Ukraine as much and best we can, for however long Ukraine is willing to fight for its independence and can continue to do so, whilst strangling Russia’s economy to hinder its capacity to finance this military adventure.

 

This is the bit which you game theorists lose sight of: unlike chess pieces, when the cannons stop, the destroyed khaki stuff stays destroyed, and the KIA/WIA soldiers stay KIA/WIA.
 

In that context, after the last 6 weeks of fighting, Russia’s military is spent. Putin cannot send anymore, without leaving his Eastern borders wide open to any and all comer. That’s why Russia is moving what’s left of its beaten up BTGs in the north, right back to Donbas. And militarily, that’s the worst thing you can do with units that are, to all extent and purposes, combat ineffective.

 

What the West needs to do, is still more - of the same. And that’s precisely what it is doing, looking at latest reports (CZ tanks and APCs, AU troop transports, heaps more Javelins/Stingers/etc. all being delivered to UA right now).

 

Harder sanctions would be nice, though. De-Swift every last RU bank, seize every last oligarch asset (like RU did with £-bns’ worth of West-owned airliners last week or the week before), expel every last RU diplomat and oligarch WAGs, stop ONG payments <etc>. The works. We’ve done Covid, this is nothing compared to its cost.

"What the West needs to do, is still more - of the same".

 

I get it.

 

So we'll have to disagree.

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, trastrick said:

"What the West needs to do, is still more - of the same".

 

I get it.

 

So we'll have to disagree.

I kept my position to a moderate one which balances interests of all the parties (save for Russia’s) and keeps Ukraine in sufficient tanks, missiles and more to keep kicking asses and taking names until Russia calls it quits (militarily, it isn’t a remote possibility any more at this stage of proceedings, on the verified evidence of respective orders of battles).

 

But as previously posted, I’d be willing to go without a lot for a while, and risk more personally, in indirect support of stopping all fossil fuel imports overnight and isolating Russia North Korea-like until they starve (-just like North Koreans), whilst letting countries’ militaries go into Ukraine ‘on exercises’ on an invitation by that independent and sovereign country. After all, Russian politicians and Putin have acknowledged  this independence of Ukraine themselves, both prior to the invasion and since at the UN, and I’m not talking about the LNR/DNR. What is sauce for the goose and all that.

 

It’s a minority sentiment I’m sure. Though clearly, from interviews, testimonies and similar box pops, vastly majoritarian amongst Ukrainians.
 

And still diametrically opposed to your appeasing stance, for sure. No problem with agreeing to disagree.

[harvey19 541]

Would you stop us buying oil and gas from Russia ?

Apparently Mr. Putin has an 83% approval rating in Russia.

I presume from this the West, Ukraine and Russia are being provided with different media reports of what is happening.

[Kidorry 189]

1 hour ago, harvey19 said:

Would you stop us buying oil and gas from Russia ?

Apparently Mr. Putin has an 83% approval rating in Russia.

I presume from this the West, Ukraine and Russia are being provid

ed with different media reports of what is happening.

I think this could be that they dare not say anything wrong about Mr Pootin, or else.

[HumbleNarrator 286]

It's going to be fun watching Russia go gradually downhill as its economy falls apart.

[cuttsie 1,093]

According to the BBC many women and young girls have been raped by the Russian soldiers , Rape is used as way to traumatise communities and has been sanctioned by some Countries as a official method to wage terror while invading other lands . It happened in Rwanda and now in the Ukraine .

[RJRB 688]

I think that it has happened in every war ever waged ,including modern times.

Sanctioned or otherwise 

Edited April 6, 2022 by RJRB

[Kidorry 189]

It certainly happened in the last war (WW2) with the Russian advance on Berlin.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Kidorry
added text

[Annie Bynnol 614]

5 hours ago, trastrick said:

Lol

 

I doubt Putin checks out opinions on SF with his morning vodka.

 

Putin needs nothing from the West, except the incompetence and the weakness of their leadership, who he can intimidate and exploit,  with threats of nuclear war,  and bribery.

 

The U.S. allowed him to take over Ukrainian Crimea without a fight and have stated repeatedly, they will not intervene militarily with his latest aggression. He thtreatens Nukes, they threaten "more sanctions" 

 

 As for bribery, Europe refused NATO membership to Ukraine, because they won't stop buying  Putin's Fossil Fuel Oil and Gas, which is largely financing his opportunistic aggression, even today, while hypoctically decrying the slaughter from afar.

 

An open invitation to any evil totalitarian tyrant to grab what he wants.

 

Recognizing such reality, is not in any way supporting Putin's agenda. Actually the opposite is true.

 

It's the "stooges" in the West that are standing by, helpless, and hoping they can "shame" the devil into giving up, going home, and going to some Western Court and excusing or apologizing for his war crimes, or stepping down, or being overthrown. Lol

 

While the Ukraine, and it's hapless civilians bear the real  pain and suffering, egged on by the cowards, warmongers, and arms merchants of today's West.

 

WW3 or a negotiated/enforced settlement is the only way out of this Catch 22.

 

Take yer pickl!

 

But don't leave it until there's nothing left to save.

 

The lesser of two evils, is to for the West to enforce a settlement on Zelensky.  Do it, NOW!

 

The Ukraine must committ to nuetrality (for now).

 

Geopolitical reality is that when  totaltarians and democracies share a common border, the only way out is a nuetral, or "de-militarized" border. By quirk of history, the Ukraine happens to occupy that position. Life is not fair.

 

If you have another solution, the World is listening. 

 

The American far-right agenda includes supporting Putin in his attack on Western values and therefore his war on the Ukrainians.

Whether it is Russian propaganda or far-right Americans, or both, the aim is the same, it to undermine the Ukrainians and support in the west.

One often used propaganda technique is to persuade your adversaries that they have lost, to tell their families and friends that they have lost, to undermine their will.

Your persistent calls for Ukrainians to surrender is not aimed at them it is to bolster the American far-right, which begs the question why are you sending this propaganda to Britain?

 

 

 

[Delbow 708]

It turns out the UK has been importing Russian coal? In which mad universe has this been allowed to happen? We shouldn't even be using coal, let alone funding Putin's war chest with it. Another example of the people in charge of the UK's energy policy being fast  asleep at the wheel.