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The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting


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Just now, woodview said:

When discussing this, remeber the 3.9% prediction is the compounbded effect after 15 years. e.g in 15 years time GDP might be 3.9% lower than today. It may be correct, and also as we all know gdp forecast vary on a quarterly basis, so it also has to be treated with caution.

That particular article is also misleading as it makes a comparison in the amount of gdp to the contribution to the eu. The contribution to the eu is made from government receipts not gdp. It's similar to mixing up turnover and profit in a company. Very different figures.

Can you show any report that says we'll be better off economically outside the EU?

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Just now, truman said:

Can you show any report that says we'll be better off economically outside the EU?

I'm not disputing the figure, it may well be correct. In my personal opinion they are predicting a 0.2% impact on gdp per year, compounded over 15 years. 'If' that were true, I would still support a Leave vote. The other aspect is there is more to the economy than pure gdp (akin to turnover). If not, are we going to euthanise the old and sick to improve our prosperity? It works out on paper.

We have other costs associated with membership (as well as benefits), shools, health, housing etc etc

I don't fully believe the credibilty of forecasting gdp out 15 years in the future.

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2 hours ago, Magilla said:

The only way it ends arguments is when the result is near concensus.

 

Hence Swiss referena need to have a two thirds majority for any matter to be  considered "settled".

 

The referendum itself was fatally flawed.

Okay, you will be happy and stop arguing, if Mrs May stated nobody likes the deal I have negotiated  and said  we are  having another  referendum to either remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal and  remain had to receive  two thirds of the votes cast in order to overturn the result of the last referendum?

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2 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

Okay, you will be happy and stop arguing, if Mrs May stated nobody likes the deal I have negotiated  and said  we are  having another  referendum to either remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal and  remain had to receive  two thirds of the votes cast in order to overturn the result of the last referendum?

There will never be 2/3rds for any decision on this. And staying is as contentious as leaving. We run the country on first past the post, which sees governments formed with less than 50% support. We went to war in Iraq under the Blair government who were on a 40% vote share.

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Just now, woodview said:

There will never be 2/3rds for any decision on this. And staying is as contentious as leaving. We run the country on first past the post, which sees governments formed with less than 50% support. We went to war in Iraq under the Blair government who were on a 40% vote share.

How did that turn out?

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16 minutes ago, truman said:

Can you show any report that says we'll be better off economically outside the EU?

I dont believe reports from either camp or independent. There are too many unknowns and variables to come to any kind of remotely accurate conclusions.

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16 hours ago, Cyclone said:

He gave examples, so you couldn't take that route obviously.  Instead you went down the route of accusing him of selfishness after you specifically asked for personal examples.

You are being very predictable again with that reply and have gone down the route of accusing me of accusing him of being selfish which was actually from another poster.

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19 minutes ago, woodview said:

I'm not disputing the figure, it may well be correct. In my personal opinion they are predicting a 0.2% impact on gdp per year, compounded over 15 years. 'If' that were true, I would still support a Leave vote. The other aspect is there is more to the economy than pure gdp (akin to turnover). If not, are we going to euthanise the old and sick to improve our prosperity? It works out on paper.

We have other costs associated with membership (as well as benefits), shools, health, housing etc etc

I don't fully believe the credibilty of forecasting gdp out 15 years in the future.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/chancellor-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond

 

He can't see us being better off under any deal...

 

A bit removed from this

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history

6 minutes ago, lil-minx92 said:

I dont believe reports from either camp or independent. There are too many unknowns and variables to come to any kind of remotely accurate conclusions.

I'm not asking you to believe anything..I just wanted to see a report that says we'll be better off..  

 

Edited by truman
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