The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[L00b]

<...>

 

Many more of these coming in the new year. This is going to stun Brexiters day after day because the scale is not something they could have imagined.

It's not going to, you know. As typified by the responses of apelike, ENG and similar.

 

The full scale-effects of these Brexit-caused departures are not going to come through (to the extent that you could quote the impartial ONS to back up the point, rather than MSM articles, all fact-based that they may be) until a good year [EDIT: from Brexit date, post-transition] at least.

 

And even then, expect the Leavers to still be pointing at the full range of proxies, including in no particular order-

• the unelected EU
  
• immigrants still here
  
• remoaners
  
• lefties / Labour voters / Corbyn
  
• young people
  
• public sector workers
  
• scroungers the sick / vulnerable / unemployed
  
• other traitors, saboteurs, insufficiently patriotic or enthusiastic
  
• the BOE / financial experts (headed by an immigrant)
  
• lawyers, judges, human rights people
  
• academics / teachers
  
• 'experts'
  
• Ireland & the Irish

-instead of coping on some.

 

This latest newsbit from the City is not even the visible part of the iceberg, it's the tiniest of portions of the summit - at the most. It's highly symptomatic of course, because the City forging ahead with relocation plans simply confirms that Theresa's "deal in extremis " last week proved to be worth about as much as a mousefart to them. But that's only of any significance to 'expert' observers like you and I. Not to the blindly faithful, nor to those without any skin in the economic game.

 

And it will continue to be so, for very many Leavers until the day they rock up to A&E or call for an ambulance, and are summarily told to leave, because there's no way anyone will see them in the next 12 hours...and even then, there's still no guarantee that they'd connect the dots.

Problem is it’s too late. Many of our clients are so spooked at not being able to fully plan the next financial year that they are already decided.

It's been too late since late summer 2017. I told you that then.

 

Just leave them to it already. They're just like teenagers, sometime you have to let them make the big mistakes themselves, no other way for them to learn and graduate to adulthood

Edited December 11, 2017 by L00b

[melthebell]

 

Providing they are actually lost!

AND what if it DOES happen?

too late then, the genies out of the bottle

[ENG601PM]

The full scale-effects of these Brexit-caused departures are not going to come through (to the extent that you could quote the impartial ONS to back up the point, rather than MSM articles, all fact-based that they may be) until a good year [EDIT: from Brexit date, post-transition] at least.

Any more qualifications? The Europhile Crystal Ball* always seems to be either extraordinarily murky or have a time delay and mystery worthy of Dr Who.

 

 

 

 

 

* See what I did there?

[L00b]

Any more qualifications?

You mean, more than post #3885 in this thread, 2 or 3 weeks ago?

 

See what I did there?

[ENG601PM]

You mean, more than post #3885 in this thread, 2 or 3 weeks ago?

 

See what I did there?

Not really. Surely you've spent at least a little time involved in negotiations for something or other? I've been doing it for a living for 30 years and see little to be pessimistic about so far except May's general uselessness as portrayed in the press, but to be fair, that's one very thick lens to form a clear impression through. Last week's "agreement" isn't worth the paper it's written on, still less a reason to write it off.

[Car Boot]

The UK received, for decades, money from the EU to try and turn a sinking ship around. It worked, the UK economy turned the corner and became successful, then the UK started paying into the EU to try and turn other countries fortunes around.

 

The UK has always paid more into the EU budget than it receives back - even after rebates, refunds and public sector grants. The UK economy turning the corner had little to do with the EU, and now the EU is the sick man of the global economy.

[I1L2T3]

But will you hold your breath while I wait..

 

---------- Post added 11-12-2017 at 13:21 ----------

 

 

Providing they are actually lost!

 

I don’t have to hold my breath. I know what is on the way.

[L00b]

Not really. Surely you've spent at least a little time involved in negotiations for something or other? I've been doing it for a living for 30 years and see little to be pessimistic about so far except May's general uselessness as portrayed in the press, but to be fair, that's one very thick lens to form a clear impression through. Last week's "agreement" isn't worth the paper it's written on, still less a reason to write it off.

B for the cuteness of the hand-waving here, but F for the strawman, a really poor attempt

 

I see little reason in the above to raise the bar from my previous post: I'm quite content to let the unfolding of phase II -and events- vindicate me in due course, as they have done for my earlier "European crystal ball gazing" as you -and others before you- call it.

 

To date, my earlier "European crystal ball gazing" has been repeatedly proven right by events.

 

To date, yours hasn't (-that I'm aware of; but please link me otherwise).

 

So far, so the end

 

I don't have an irrepressible need to convince you -or others- before the fact: my only interests are correcting Leavers' misrepresentations and being reasonably pragmatic; being proven right by events is just bonus points.

 

What will be will be: none of it is going to affect me, now that we're leaving (-as instructed by the "democratic will of the people").

Edited December 11, 2017 by L00b

[ENG601PM]

What will be will be

 

Indeed it will. You, though mainly others, keep getting overexcited about nothing much at all. Here's a prediction - all things will be largely fudged by all sides for mutual benefit and best political presentation at home. There will be no winners. There will be no losers. There is just leaving.

[altus]

If I read that correctly that's an egregious misrepresentation even though you might have made it innocently.

 

What actually happened is that growth figures around Europe in the quarter century after WW2 were determined in large part by the reparations and growth from a physically devastated continent. Cities, towns and villages were rebuilt, farmlands were restored, industries pieced back together, all using with the latest technologies, ideas and techniques. You can imagine how that translates into unprecedented growth. By contrast the UK had huge war bills to pay, but not much war rebuilding to do.

 

Rather than receiving reparations like much of Europe, the UK actually wrote off most of Germany's debts from WW1. Imagine that for generosity! Continental Europe was substantially aided by British skills and investment which came at additional cost to UK growth which was largely stuck with pre-WW2 technology and management and nothing but enormous war debts to the USA and Canada.

Apart from more Marshall plan money than anyone else.