Coronavirus - Part Two.

[Carbuncle 0]

5 hours ago, apelike said:

It may also be the case that because none of his past pandemic prediction were anywhere near accurate government then decided to be cautious in how they handled the covid one

I think you are being a bit harsh. He has in fact predicted seven of the last one pandemics.

[apelike 10]

1 hour ago, butlers said:

My understanding was he offered to resign ,I can find no reference to it being accepted.

Also are there not 4 sets of modellers within the SAGE group?

Not sure about the latter but here is some info on him resigning as it was widely reported at the time.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229

 

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

I think you are being a bit harsh. He has in fact predicted seven of the last one pandemics.

As far as I am aware he does not and has not predict any pandemics. What he does is use mathematical models to try and predict the possible consequences of a pandemic and the likely mortality rate etc and then gives advice. The problem being he has given the worst case scenarios for past possible pandemics and has in nearly all cases been extremely wide of the mark.  

 

 

[Guest makapaka]

Never has there been so many experts on a pandemic.

 

the government were and are useless.

 

but it is what is now.

 

use your noodle - get a vaccine - stop reading the news.

 

only way out of all this hideousness.

 

 

[butlers 296]

The Press do us a disservice.

In all the pandemic work there is a range of outcomes and they only ever care to report the highest number  without it's context.

 

[Carbuncle 0]

13 minutes ago, butlers said:

The Press do us a disservice.

In all the pandemic work there is a range of outcomes and they only ever care to report the highest number  without it's context.

Exactly. Neither the news media nor the government have any strength in science. At one point I started working back through the Science ministers ... trying to find one of them who had studied science at university. I gave up before finding one. MPs do not generally have backgrounds in science. The BBC is short of science qualified reporters too, for example the BBC's head of science is David Shukman who studied geography at university. They just don't get it.

[Guest sibon]

28 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Exactly. Neither the news media nor the government have any strength in science. At one point I started working back through the Science ministers ... trying to find one of them who had studied science at university. I gave up before finding one. MPs do not generally have backgrounds in science. The BBC is short of science qualified reporters too, for example the BBC's head of science is David Shukman who studied geography at university. They just don't get it.

Got it in one.

 

All of these wise guys on here, decrying Neil Ferguson can go on the list too.

 

Numeracy is in short supply in our society. Anyone reporting an interval of certainty is likely to be unfairly dismissed as inaccurate. 
 

And don’t forget that forecasts usually trigger responses. Those responses often render the forecasts as inaccurate. That’s a good thing.

 

Ferguson has a formidable array of qualifications. I’d side with him over our resident keyboard dissidents any day.

[Carbuncle 0]

5 minutes ago, sibon said:

And don’t forget that forecasts usually trigger responses. Those responses often render the forecasts as inaccurate. That’s a good thing.

Quite so. Humans change their behaviour. Still Ferguson might have been smarter not predicting a catastrophe in Sweden when they didn't 'lockdown'. It turned out the Swedes were capable of modifying their behaviour without being compelled.

[butlers 296]

Ditto the above in spades.

If people go check out these guys bios they are stellar.

Chris Whitty is an outstanding public servant too.

The guy has been returning to the wards as well as guiding the government

[tinfoilhat 11]

1 minute ago, butlers said:

Ditto the above in spades.

If people go check out these guys bios they are stellar.

Chris Whitty is an outstanding public servant too.

The guy has been returning to the wards as well as guiding the government

Yep, I understand he worked on the wards straight through christmas.

[Mister M 1,693]

1 minute ago, butlers said:

Ditto the above in spades.

If people go check out these guys bios they are stellar.

Chris Whitty is an outstanding public servant too.

The guy has been returning to the wards as well as guiding the government

I agree with you.

A few months ago there was video footage of a gormless urchin abusing Chris Whitty in the street, calling him a 'liar' about Covid cases, roundabout the same time the right wing press were having a go at him for getting some figures wrong:

Video appears to show Chris Whitty being verbally abused in street | News | Independent TV

 

The gormless urchin videoing himself mocking Whitty, was recognised (he panned his mobile phone to show his stupid face), and named and shamed online. Karma.

[butlers 296]

There's a definite inverse relationship between intelligence and gobbyness.

 

[Delbow 773]

14 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

Quite so. Humans change their behaviour. Still Ferguson might have been smarter not predicting a catastrophe in Sweden when they didn't 'lockdown'. It turned out the Swedes were capable of modifying their behaviour without being compelled.

Just about any Northern European society is able to absorb information, weigh it up and make a sensible decision better than the "no-one tells ME what to do, never trust anyone with a degree" mentality of the English.