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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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Guest makapaka
2 hours ago, Ethella said:

Yes you're right,  Hopefully, we'll now  start getting more 'no recorded deaths days' than 'recorded deaths days'.

How many people died in the uk today - of any cause?

Edited by makapaka

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1 hour ago, Ethella said:
2 hours ago, butlers said:

Blimey , let's go with the glass being half full shall we😊

Yes you're right,  Hopefully, we'll now  start getting more 'no recorded deaths days' than 'recorded deaths days'.

Sorry guys: setting aside today which as has been pointed out is the day after a bank holiday, the trend for daily new cases, daily new hospitalizations and daily deaths are all up. The deaths are currently at a low level so one should be cautious about talking about a trend ... it could be noise but in the cases and hospitalizations the trend is clear.

 

Government policy is again to 'let rip', accept 'exponential growth', have a third wave and to keep ones fingers crossed that the vaccination programme will in time bring rates of infection under control (put your hoping into this one) or leads to an acceptable fatality rate (only a few tens of thousands of deaths, perhaps). If neither of these possibilities seems to be panning out then it will probably be back to a hard lockdown.

 

I am sorry the news media/ government are not being more straightforward about this: we have low numbers but they are rising exponentially and the epidemic is not currently being controlled by non-pharmaceutical measures.

 

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Guest makapaka
7 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Sorry guys: setting aside today which as has been pointed out is the day after a bank holiday, the trend for daily new cases, daily new hospitalizations and daily deaths are all up. The deaths are currently at a low level so one should be cautious about talking about a trend ... it could be noise but in the cases and hospitalizations the trend is clear.

 

Government policy is again to 'let rip', accept 'exponential growth', have a third wave and to keep ones fingers crossed that the vaccination programme will in time bring rates of infection under control (put your hoping into this one) or leads to an acceptable fatality rate (only a few tens of thousands of deaths, perhaps). If neither of these possibilities seems to be panning out then it will probably be back to a hard lockdown.

 

I am sorry the news media/ government are not being more straightforward about this: we have low numbers but they are rising exponentially and the epidemic is not currently being controlled by non-pharmaceutical measures.

 

I’m glad all I have to do to find out exactly what will happen in respect of Covid is to read a prediction from a poster on Sheffield forum.

 

makes things so much easier.

 

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I’m not saying it won’t change but daily hospitalisations are definitely not up in Sheffield.

Theyre the lowest they’ve been for a long time, and have been around the same numbers for a few weeks.

Edited by nikki-red

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It's a sunny day ,so I am in a positive mood.

New cases are up but the number is 90 plus percent less than at the peak daily  new cases.

 

Deaths have been in single figures for a couple if weeks ,at the peak we went 20 plus consecutive days of over 1000.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, nikki-red said:

I’m not saying it won’t change but daily hospitalisations are definitely not up in Sheffield.

Theyre the lowest they’ve been for a long time.

My assertion about daily cases, daily hospitalizations and daily deaths is on the basis of the gov.uk coronavirus dashboard and refers to the UK-wide figures.

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2 minutes ago, makapaka said:

I’m glad all I have to do to find out exactly what will happen in respect of Covid is to read a prediction from a poster on Sheffield forum.

 

makes things so much easier.

 

And one who has recently returned, with a low post count.

 

2 minutes ago, nikki-red said:

I’m not saying it won’t change but daily hospitalisations are definitely not up in Sheffield.

Theyre the lowest they’ve been for a long time.

Good to hear - and from a slightly more reliable source.

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Guest makapaka
6 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

My assertion about daily cases, daily hospitalizations and daily deaths is on the basis of the gov.uk coronavirus dashboard and refers to the UK-wide figures.

Which part of the data shows exponential rise in people in hospital - can you show the figure you’re relying on for that.

 

I don’t know what will happen with Covid - neither do you - I don’t see anything in those figures that indicates your assertions are correct?


according to the dashboard / the number of people in hospital is the lowest it has been since last September - which was also before the vaccination programme.

Edited by makapaka

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Carbuncle is right in the numbers.

What the balance point is between caution and more hopeful is up for argument

What is certain is we are in the best place since since last February and that's a much stronger trend,at last

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In the s

3 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Which part of the data shows exponential rise in people in hospital - can you show the figure you’re relying on for that.

 

I don’t know what will happen with Covid - neither do you - I don’t see anything in those figures that indicates your assertions are correct?

In the short term (unless the numbers are very low when things become stochastic/ random) the trend is always exponential. If the trend is up it will be 'exponentially rising', if the trend is flat that too is an exponential although of a rather tame kind, if it is falling then it will be exponential decay. A rising trend will be exponential in the short term, at least in this 'mathematical interpretation' of the term. To demonstrate this requires a goodly amount of maths. Oh and you do have to accept at least some model-type assumptions.

 

6 minutes ago, RollingJ said:

All those graphs show a flat or decreasing number, if you are talking about the opening page.

No, you will have to look at the individual sequences of numbers on the pages that hand off this page. The website does not allow you to zoom in on the graphs.

Correction: the opening page does show trend for cases and hospitalizations ... look at the red flashes in the relevant sections.

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