Coronavirus - Part Two.

[RollingJ 2,043]

3 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

 

No, you will have to look at the individual sequences of numbers on the pages that hand off this page. The website does not allow you to zoom in on the graphs.

To be honest, I can't be bothered, those initial graphs show a flat or reducing level - which is all I need to know, and unlike some on here, I refuse to live the rest of my life in fear.

[Carbuncle 0]

Phhhhh ... I state something that is not a secret merely poorly explained by the news media. I am basicly accused of making things up. I state my source ... oh I am not that interested (I just wanted to have a go at you) and somehow I am scaremongering. I didn't make the policy and I have not asserted the current phase of policy is wrong. Nor have I made any outlandish predictions. The government has said there is a race between vaccination and the virus. They are letting it rip.

[Guest makapaka]

7 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Phhhhh ... I state something that is not a secret merely poorly explained by the news media. I am basicly accused of making things up. I state my source ... oh I am not that interested (I just wanted to have a go at you) and somehow I am scaremongering. I didn't make the policy and I have not asserted the current phase of policy is wrong. Nor have I made any outlandish predictions. The government has said there is a race between vaccination and the virus. They are letting it rip.

Sound so you’ve looked at some numbers seen they have gone up, applied no nuance to it in terms of what the impact may be - and announced the virus is being “let rip”.

 

You might be right / you might be wrong.

 

although we have to live our lives - and if at the minute there are fewer than a 1000 people in hospital with it - and single digit daily deaths - what else can we do but try and carry on until we know that is going to change?

[RollingJ 2,043]

@makapaka - PANIC!🤣

[Carbuncle 0]

28 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Sound so you’ve looked at some numbers seen they have gone up, applied no nuance to it in terms of what the impact may be - and announced the virus is being “let rip”.

"let rip" = adopted a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (partial lockdown) known with high degree of confidence to be insufficient to cause a level or falling rate of infection. Is that sufficiently nuanced for you?

 

Current rate of infection = good. Current trend in infections = bad. Current policy: allow trend to continue. My opinion of policy: watchful.

[Guest makapaka]

24 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

"let rip" = adopted a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (partial lockdown) known with high degree of confidence to be insufficient to cause a level or falling rate of infection. Is that sufficiently nuanced for you?

 

Current rate of infection = good. Current trend in infections = bad. Current policy: allow trend to continue. My opinion of policy: watchful.

Yes we’re all watchful. Cheers for the insight.

[whiteowl 54]

Carbuncle is correct, cases are rising - as was expected when lockdown restrictions were eased.

 

Whether hospital admissions/deaths follow remains to be seen, hence the 5 week gap in between each stage of restriction easing and decisions whether to proceed with the next one or not.

 

Whilst the country is currently in a good position with regards the vaccines, so far it's been backed up by restrictions. Soon, it will come time for the vaccines to stand on their own.

 

The signs are looking promising (glass half full for a change of pace on here  ) but let's just stick to the plan and not throw it all away for the sake of a couple of weeks.

[Carbuncle 0]

5 minutes ago, whiteowl said:

Whether hospital admissions/deaths follow remains to be seen, hence the 5 week gap in between each stage of restriction easing and decisions whether to proceed with the next one or not.

 

Thanks for confirming my comment on rising case numbers. You are however a little out of date on hospital admissions and deaths. There were 870 admissions in the last week for which data has been released versus 706 in the previous seven days. Deaths are less clear: the seven day figure has been  rising in recent days (if you ignore today's bank-holiday affected number) but the numbers are so low (good!) that the apparent trend could conceivably be the product of noise. 

[Longcol 607]

2 hours ago, RollingJ said:

All those graphs show a flat or decreasing number, if you are talking about the opening page.

All show a lag of a couple of weeks between infections increasing (they've gone up something like 60% in the last week) and then increased hospitalisations and deaths.

 

It's highly unlikely to be like Jan / Feb again  although the areas with the lowest number of vaccinations are largely cities (London, Birmingham, Manchester, Nottingham) with high population densities - and therefore the potential for quick increases in infections.

[Guest makapaka]

4 minutes ago, Longcol said:

All show a lag of a couple of weeks between infections increasing (they've gone up something like 60% in the last week) and then increased hospitalisations and deaths.

 

It's highly unlikely to be like Jan / Feb again  although the areas with the lowest number of vaccinations are largely cities (London, Birmingham, Manchester, Nottingham) with high population densities - and therefore the potential for quick increases in infections.

Course they have - we’re not in lockdown anymore?

7 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Thanks for confirming my comment on rising case numbers. You are however a little out of date on hospital admissions and deaths. There were 870 admissions in the last week for which data has been released versus 706 in the previous seven days. Deaths are less clear: the seven day figure has been  rising in recent days (if you ignore today's bank-holiday affected number) but the numbers are so low (good!) that the apparent trend could conceivably be the product of noise. 

“Noise” (??)

Edited June 1, 2021 by makapaka

[Longcol 607]

3 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Course they have - we’re not in lockdown anymore?

 

So we agree that increased infections can lead to increased hospitalisations and deaths down the line?

[Guest makapaka]

Just now, Longcol said:

So we agree that increased infections can lead to increased hospitalisations and deaths down the line?

Yeah - obviously.