The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[L00b 441]

No. It can make no economic sense to refuse free trade. It may make short term political sense to some.

A protectionist approach by the EU27 (hinged on the UK's refusal to maintain free movement of labour and capital) makes perfect economic sense: barriers to trade against the UK favour redirection of non-EU FDI towards the significantly larger market constituted by the EU27.

 

Which is exactly what Ghosn went to see May to discuss a few weeks ago.

 

The enduring lack of transparency about this very discussion (including to the OBR itself, which specifically asked about it last Wednesday just before Hammond's budget speech, and was told to do one) is all the vindication of the point that you need, tbh.

[unbeliever 10]

A protectionist approach by the EU (hinged on the UK's refusal of free movement of labour and capital) makes perfect economic sense: barriers to trade against the UK favour redirection of non-EU FDI towards the significantly larger market constituted by the 27.

 

Which is exactly what Ghosn went to see May to discuss a few weeks ago.

 

The enduring lack of transparency about this very discussion (including to the OBR itself, which specifically asked about it last Wednesday just before Hammond's budget speech, and was told to do one) is all the vindication of the point that you need, tbh.

 

A declining trading bloc deciding to wilfully reduce its external trade just as it shrinks by 20%. In what world does that make economic sense?

[aa2900 10]

It's just a well you're not mind reading for a living isn't it?............I haven't said anything about the UK ability to function outside the EU at all,I commented on what your reason for leaving was...........it's as simple as that,but we'll find out soon enough if people are going to lose their jobs as a direct result of Brexit,and when they come whinging about it,we'll slap 'em down and tell them to have some respect for other peoples principles......won't we?

 

Why would people lose their jobs as a result of Brexit?

[Flexo 10]

A declining trading bloc deciding to wilfully reduce its external trade just as it shrinks by 20%. In what world does that make economic sense?

 

I can help with that one:

 

Brexit makes sense in the mad mad world of such esteemed fellows as Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg. I'm sure we all look up to them as role models and wish we were just like them. Which of the two do you think is most lovely?

 

They say we have to ignore the experts because the experts live in a world where Brexit does not make economic sense. Pay attention to this figure of ridicule instead: Everyone Took The **** Out Of Jacob Rees-Mogg At University

 

European leaders agree UK must be forced into hard Brexit

 

“The British are of course testing us out – we all know that. They are testing how united Europe actually is. So what is important is that Europe stays together. No bilateral negotiations with the British. No cherry-picking. We are doing this as a bloc.”

 

The other members know that the world of Gove does not make economic sense but it's not their job to bring sanity to it. Britain will have 2 years to determine the details of its departure from the EU. After that it can enter negotiations for a trade agreement just as any other non-member would.

 

However there is now the possibility that this won't be necessary. There is the notion that the UK is a member of the EEA and the EU and that leaving the EU does not automatically mean leaving the EEA. So it may therefore be possible to leave the EU and remain part of the common trading area.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Flexo

[unbeliever 10]

I can help with that one:

 

Brexit makes sense in the mad mad world of such esteemed fellows as Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg. I'm sure we all look up to them as role models and wish we were just like them. Which of the two do you think is most lovely?

 

They say we have to ignore the experts because the experts live in a world where Brexit does not make economic sense.

 

 

 

You know it's considered extremely poor form to misquote another member, and misrepresent what they say. I'd appreciate it if you would correct yourself, otherwise I shall feel obliged to report the matter.

 

Last chance. I'm not letting it stand and if you fail to correct it yourself and make me call in the mods; they'll just start deleting posts until the offence is purged from the thread.

Edited November 28, 2016 by unbeliever

[Zamo 10]

A protectionist approach by the EU27 (hinged on the UK's refusal to maintain free movement of labour and capital) makes perfect economic sense: barriers to trade against the UK favour redirection of non-EU FDI towards the significantly larger market constituted by the EU27.

 

If it makes economic sense to put up trade barriers with other nations then why is the EU trying to remove trade barriers with the rest of the world?

[aa2900 10]

If it makes economic sense to put up trade barriers with other nations then why is the EU trying to remove trade barriers with the rest of the world?

 

If the EU leaders put up trade barriers with the UK the UK will put up similar restrictions on EU imports. Such restrictions will harm the EU more than the UK as they have countries with massive unemployment. It will also damage the EU's ability to export to the far east and the Americas.

[L00b 441]

A declining trading bloc deciding to wilfully reduce its external trade just as it shrinks by 20%. In what world does that make economic sense?

In a world wherein individual members of the bloc look farther than the end of their nose, to poach the UK's market share globally for boosting their own growth. Hurt (some of the-) 20% short-term, expect to gain (more than-) 20% medium- to long-term.

 

Short term pain, long term gain, not dissimilar at all to what the UK just did with slamming its currency value.

 

Not sure where you got your opinion about the EU's "declining trade" from, btw. The EU's GDP has been growing faster than the UK's for some time now.

If it makes economic sense to put up trade barriers with other nations then why is the EU trying to remove trade barriers with the rest of the world?

It makes as much economical sense to put them up against an isolationist UK, as to keep them down with an open-bordered UK.

 

It's the UK's and EU27's politics that makes the difference: the sooner the UK realises that the EU27 won't allow it to "have its cake and eating it", the better for all concerned, and the faster Brexit can get properly underway.

Edited November 28, 2016 by L00b
opinion formed on wrong graphs, argument withdrawn

[unbeliever 10]

In a world wherein individual members of the bloc look farther than the end of their nose, to poach the UK's market share globally for boosting their own growth.

 

Not sure where you got your opinion about the EU's "declining trade" from, btw. The EU's GDP has been growing faster than the UK's for some time now.

 

 

Really hasn't:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

 

It makes as much economical sense to put them up against an isolationist UK, as to keep them down with an open-bordered UK.

 

This post suggests a fundamental misunderstanding how how trade barriers affect long term growth. And you make me chuckle a bit there by suggesting that because we don't want to be part of the European protectionist super-state project that we're "isolationist".

 

It's the UK's and EU27's politics that makes the difference. The sooner the UK realises that the EU27 won't allow it to to "have its cake and eating it", the better for all, and the faster Brexit can get underway.

 

That would be great. I'd much prefer a clean break and I worry that our leaders will haggle away our sovereignty as they have before.

[L00b 441]

Really hasn't:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

I was looking at the wrong graph for the UK, fair cop.

This post suggests a fundamental misunderstanding how how trade barriers affect long term growth.

No misunderstanding at all, here. Remember that I'm talking solely about the (notional) EU/UK relationship here, not the EU/rest of the world relationship. And in that context:

And you make me chuckle a bit there by suggesting that because we don't want to be part of the European protectionist super-state project that we're "isolationist".

 

Do you mind sync'ing with Zamo (or reciprocally)?

If it makes economic sense to put up trade barriers with other nations then why is the EU trying to remove trade barriers with the rest of the world?

Debate can get kinda hard when opposed positions are assumed by proponents of a same side of the argument.

[unbeliever 10]

I was looking at the wrong graph for the UK, fair cop.

No misunderstanding at all, here. Remember that I'm talking solely about the (notional) EU/UK relationship here, not the EU/rest of the world relationship. And in that context:

 

Do you mind sync'ing with Zamo (or reciprocally)?

Debate can get kinda hard when opposed positions are assumed by proponents of a same side of the argument.

 

I'm under no obligation to agree with Zamo on all point, and I'm not convinced that our posts are in explicit conflict here anyway.

I expressed the opinion that the EU was protectionist. Zamo did not contradict that.

[L00b 441]

I'm under no obligation to agree with Zamo on all point, and I'm not convinced that our posts are in explicit conflict here anyway.

I expressed the opinion that the EU was protectionist. Zamo did not contradict that.

I did not assume any obligation on you to agree with Zamo, I just asked for clarity because he is a fellow Brexiter and his sentence "why is the EU trying to remove trade barriers with the rest of the world?" to my mind conflicts with your opinion that the EU is a protectionist project.

 

I mean, it's not as if the EU hasn't been a WTO member for decades, and reached plenty of WTO MFN-improving FTAs in that time, with still more in the works.

 

If you consider the EU to be protectionist, then what do you consider the main countries which May is looking to try and get FTAs with, such as India and China? And what do you consider the chances of the UK getting favourable FTAs with them? (no obligation again, and I assume that you follow current affairs, but just to be sure: you might want to refresh yourself about the recent May-Modi meeting before replying)

Edited November 28, 2016 by L00b