The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[hush]

No it wasn't. As my comment just a few above this states, Oct 4th 2016 was the peak - not May 22nd 2015.

 

As this occurred after the referendum result, I'm really not sure what point can be deduced.

 

It is clear that some are having to resort to subtefuge as their case is crumbling around them. Despite Brexit the FTSE250 will finish 2016 around 4% higher than it started. That's not bad. If you had invested 10 grand you would expect a return of about 6% after you got your dividends. I'd settle for that when banks are paying 0.5%. There's not much wrong with British industry.

 

---------- Post added 29-12-2016 at 12:56 ----------

 

Fair enough. There was very little in it but the point remains though. Historical trends are valid indicators, and the recent trend is decelerating growth. It's very clear on the 5 year graph, and the fact it took 18 months for a previous peak to be reached again is prof enough.

 

The well is collapsing in on you and you still carry on digging.

Edited December 29, 2016 by hush

[Robin-H]

Fair enough. There was very little in it but the point remains though. Historical trends are valid indicators, and the recent trend is decelerating growth. It's very clear on the 5 year graph, and the fact it took 18 months for a previous peak to be reached again is prof enough.

 

We had to wait something like 15 years for the FTSE 100 to exceed the peak it reached at the end of 1999.

 

Trying the use the FTSE 250 to show that things are bad because of the Brexit vote is in my opinion a non starter - and I say that as someone who voted remain.

[altus]

It is clear that some are having to resort to subtefuge as their case is crumbling around them. Despite Brexit the FTSE250 will finish 2016 around 4% higher than it started. That's not bad. If you had invested 10 grand you would expect a return of about 6% after you got your dividends. I'd settle for that when banks are paying 0.5%. There's not much wrong with British industry.

You'd have done better investing in the FTSE100.

 

---------- Post added 29-12-2016 at 15:47 ----------

 

Trying the use the FTSE 250 to show that things are bad because of the Brexit vote is in my opinion a non starter

As is trying to show things are going well because of brexit when it's gone up a bit. We haven't even triggered article 50 yet, the short term ups and downs of the stock market are meaningless at this stage.

[hush]

You'd have done better investing in the FTSE100..

 

You don't invest in the FTSE 250 or the FTSE 100. You invest in individual companies or in funds where the fund manager uses his knowledge to keep ahead of the game.

It isn't exactly difficult to do rather better than either index. Avoid shares that are on the way down and buy ones that are on the way up. So it has been wise to avoid banks and oil in recent times, but companies such as Whitbread (who own Costa) have been a far better bet.

[Robin-H]

As is trying to show things are going well because of brexit when it's gone up a bit. We haven't even triggered article 50 yet, the short term ups and downs of the stock market are meaningless at this stage.

 

Yes - which is why I've done neither.

[altus]

You don't invest in the FTSE 250 or the FTSE 100. You invest in individual companies or in funds where the fund manager uses his knowledge to keep ahead of the game.

It isn't exactly difficult to do rather better than either index. Avoid shares that are on the way down and buy ones that are on the way up. So it has been wise to avoid banks and oil in recent times, but companies such as Whitbread (who own Costa) have been a far better bet.

You'd been mentioning returns you'd get from investing in the FTSE250 as a whole so I mentioned the FTSE100 as that has been doing better.

 

---------- Post added 29-12-2016 at 16:56 ----------

 

Yes - which is why I've done neither.

I didn't mean to imply you had.

[hush]

Yes - which is why I've done neither.

 

It seems that Forbes think the UK is a better place for business post brexit.

 

UK fifth best country for business in 2017

The UK has been named as the fifth best country for business in 2017, according to a new list compiled by Forbes

Despite Brexit uncertainty, the country climbed from tenth to fifth place in the Forbes list, only behind Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Ireland.

Meanwhile, the US fell one place to 23rd, due to falling scores on trade and monetary freedom.

Japan had one of the biggest drops in the rankings, down 13 spots to 36th, due to declining scores for investor protection and monetary freedom.

Kurt Badenhausen, editor at Forbes, said the UK moved up "thanks to improved scores on corruption, tax burden and monetary freedom, as well as a stronger stock market".

 

http://www.forbes.com/best-countries-for-business/list/#tab:overall

[Litotes]

...Avoid shares that are on the way down and buy ones that are on the way up. So it has been wise to avoid banks and oil in recent times, but companies such as Whitbread (who own Costa) have been a far better bet.

 

This show a certain level of naiivety in the way to play the markets...

 

"A Falling Buy helps you invest in a company when it becomes good value."

"A Rising Buy helps you take advantage of a security that’s on the rise."

"A Falling Sell helps lock in gains or limit losses in a falling market."

"A Rising Sell helps with taking a profit when a security price rises."

 

http://www.thebull.com.au/experts/a/13514-how-to-buy-and-sell-shares-with-conditional-orders.html

[hush]

This show a certain level of naiivety in the way to play the markets...

 

"A Falling Buy helps you invest in a company when it becomes good value."

"A Rising Buy helps you take advantage of a security that’s on the rise."

"A Falling Sell helps lock in gains or limit losses in a falling market."

"A Rising Sell helps with taking a profit when a security price rises."

 

http://www.thebull.com.au/experts/a/13514-how-to-buy-and-sell-shares-with-conditional-orders.html

 

Ah yes. If only I'd taken your advice and invested in British Home Stores whilst they were on the slide I too could have lost my shirt. Instead I listened to those fools at Hargreaves Lansdown and ended up paying CGT.

[Jeffrey Shaw]

Anyway, consequences inexorably follow what precedes them.

So by definition no-one knows for sure what they'll be.

 

Hence one should assess it- the UK's escape from the EU- on principles, not on economics guesswork of what might or might happen.