Labour - conservative coalition?

[Longcol 612]

Would now be a good time for the government to consider proportional representation?

As its looking, we could end up with green -SNP - plaid cymru - labour coalition, which would be nearing the ridiculous.

 

That's just the sort of coalition that proportional representation could bring about

[purdy 10]

Sorry I meant the Ulster Unionists, but you knew that.

 

Indeed I did know what you meant, but there is a major difference between going into coalition with unionists and going into coalition with nationalists.

The equivalent would have been a coalition with Sinn Fein

 

---------- Post added 07-03-2015 at 15:01 ----------

 

Conservative and Labour should be polar opposites but my opinion does not quite see that.With regards to coalition between red and blue I cannot ever see that happening.

SNP coalition ,now thats interesting.

No , I am all for a re vote excluding out and out losers.Another coalition is no use or ornament.

 

I have to think any coalition with a party that wants to break up the union is a disaster waiting to happen. Any coalition with the SNP would result in another election within weeks, as I sincerely hope there are enough MPs in all the other parties who's concience would make them vote against allowing Scotland any further concessions at the expence of their constituents.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Indeed I did know what you meant, but there is a major difference between going into coalition with unionists and going into coalition with nationalists.

The equivalent would have been a coalition with Sinn Fein

 

---------- Post added 07-03-2015 at 15:01 ----------

 

 

I have to think any coalition with a party that wants to break up the union is a disaster waiting to happen. Any coalition with the SNP would result in another election within weeks, as I sincerely hope there are enough MPs in all the other parties who's concience would make them vote against allowing Scotland any further concessions at the expence of their constituents.

 

It depends how much influence labour will let the snp have. Did the lib dems get much of their own way in the last 5 years? Did they even soften many Tory policies?

[purdy 10]

It depends how much influence labour will let the snp have. Did the lib dems get much of their own way in the last 5 years? Did they even soften many Tory policies?

 

Well the SNP are not a nationwide party. They are local only to Scotland and have one thing in mind. That would make it totally different from coalition with say the Lib/Dems. It is pretty clear that the SNP would require a bribe to get into bed with any party to form a government. It is also pretty clear that would not be something to benefit folk living in Sheffield.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Well the SNP are not a nationwide party. They are local only to Scotland and have one thing in mind. That would make it totally different from coalition with say the Lib/Dems. It is pretty clear that the SNP would require a bribe to get into bed with any party to form a government. It is also pretty clear that would not be something to benefit folk living in Sheffield.

 

Fair comment. But has Sheffield benifited from having one of its MPs as deputy PM?

[purdy 10]

Fair comment. But has Sheffield benifited from having one of its MPs as deputy PM?

 

I suspect he delivered more for Sheffield than the other Sheffield MPs ever did when Labour were in sole control of the country for 13 years despite at least 2 of them holding ministerial office. Clegg's position was never anything more than a token gesture towards a very junior coalition partner. But even that junior partner got massive concessions out of the Tories.

 

I note that Clegg brought the Lib/Dem conference to Sheffield. It would have been a nice little earner for the city had the loonies not taken it upon themselves to drive them, and Sheffield's chances as a conference centre, away.

 

 

My problem with a Lab/SNP coalition is that every Scottish MP would be in the ruling coalition with around 50 of them wanting nothing for England and wanting to break up the union. A coalition between the Tories and the SNP would probably be worse because it would give Cameron the oportunity to let the SNP have what they want at the same time as getting rid of 50 odd MPs who wish his party harm.

Edited March 7, 2015 by purdy

[blake 10]

To be fair the SNP will will more seats than UKIP, and they'll become the third party in UK politics.

 

I would not be so sure of that especially at this relatively early stage. For that to happen the Lib Dems (now 57 seats) have to lose about 25 seats and the SNP (now 6 seats) have to gain a similar amount although only about 2-3 of them can possibly be directly at the expense of the Lib Dems in Scotland. It is possible but I would not say it is the likeliest outcome, certainly not the racing certainty your post makes it sound that it is. Though the Lib Dem vote is definitely going to collapse, their vote will collapse the most in seats where they do not already have an incumbent MP. Their collapse in votes may not translate into a collapse in the number of MP's in the same kind of proportion, while the opposite may be the case with the SNP. They might make a big gain in Scottish vote share, but like UKIP in England and Wales, that gain may not translate into all that many new MP's.

 

of course there is no way that the SNP can possibly be the 3rd party in UK politics in terms of votes cast anyway. That will almost certainly be UKIP.

[JFKvsNixon 11]

I would not be so sure of that especially at this relatively early stage. For that to happen the Lib Dems (now 57 seats) have to lose about 25 seats and the SNP (now 6 seats) have to gain a similar amount although only about 2-3 of them can possibly be directly at the expense of the Lib Dems in Scotland. It is possible but I would not say it is the likeliest outcome, certainly not the racing certainty your post makes it sound that it is. Though the Lib Dem vote is definitely going to collapse, their vote will collapse the most in seats where they do not already have an incumbent MP. Their collapse in votes may not translate into a collapse in the number of MP's in the same kind of proportion, while the opposite may be the case with the SNP. They might make a big gain in Scottish vote share, but like UKIP in England and Wales, that gain may not translate into all that many new MP's.

 

of course there is no way that the SNP can possibly be the 3rd party in UK politics in terms of votes cast anyway. That will almost certainly be UKIP.

 

Have a look at this website: http://www.electionforecast.co.uk

[blake 10]

I don't trust that forecast for a minute. I think the Lib Dems are going to end up with more seats than just 16, more like 30 which would still be a big setback for them. I also think UKIP are going to keep at least one of the two seats they already have and gain at least one more, Farage's seat (he will win there). The amount of SNP Scottish seats in that forecast, 22, I think is probably about right by my guess, a huge gain for them in Scotland that. Some of the headlines floating around the past few days, that they are going to gain like 35 of Labour's 41 Scottish seats are ridiculous. That is not going to happen.

Edited March 7, 2015 by blake

[JFKvsNixon 11]

I don't trust that foecast for a minute. I think the Lib Dems are going to end up with more seats than just 16, more like 30 which would still be a big setback for them. I also think UKIP are going to keep at least one of the two seats they already have and gain at least one more, Farage's seat (he will win there). The amount of SNP Scottish seats in that forecast, 22, I think is probably about right by my guess, a huge gain for them in Scotland that. Some of the headlines floating around the past few days, that they are going to gain like 35 of Labour's 41 Scottish seats are ridiculous. That is not going to happen.

 

Their current estimation is 26 seats for the Lib-Dems, with the lowest amount possible 16 and the highest 34. The SNP estimation is 38 with a lowest possible 22 and the highest 52.

[Happ Hazzard 10]

I think SNP being in a national UK government would cause a lot of resentment, and would probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum, but this time one that all the UK can vote in!

[blake 10]

Their current estimation is 26 seats for the Lib-Dems, with the lowest amount possible 16 and the highest 34. The SNP estimation is 38 with a lowest possible 22 and the highest 52.

 

the estimates are just reading numbers from the last GE and not taking into account factors like incumbency and also the performance of this government. Quite a lot of Liberal Democrat MP's - who tend to be good incumbents that hold on to their seats anyway - but whose seats are now threatened by a huge swing against them, have still been in a party to the government, they have been on national television, it massively expands their profile locally, this helps them in a big way to hold on to votes in their own constituencies. There will be a big drop in the Lib Dem vote for sure. But I predict if you were to compare the swing against the Lib Dems in seats where they already have MPs in one column and seats where they don't have MP's in another column, you will see a difference of several points. It will be close I think. But I predict the Lib Dems nationwide will still end up with more MP's than the SNP will in Scotland.

 

and there is no way Carswell is going to lose Clacton and Farage not gain Thanet. That berk might lose Rochester though. But I do think UKIP gains will be slim. I also put a bet 2 years ago on UKIP gaining Grimsby off Labour. There is no incumbent in Grimsby. The incumbent there, a Labour MP for 38 years but who never got all that big majorities, is retiring. UKIP are going to finish with 3 or 4 MPs.