Labour - conservative coalition?

[SteveJ68 10]

the estimates are just reading numbers from the last GE and not taking into account factors like incumbency and also the performance of this government. Quite a lot of Liberal Democrat MP's - who tend to be good incumbents that hold on to their seats anyway - but whose seats are now threatened by a huge swing against them, have still been in a party to the government, they have been on national television, it massively expands their profile locally, this helps them in a big way to hold on to votes in their own constituencies. There will be a big drop in the Lib Dem vote for sure. But I predict if you were to compare the swing against the Lib Dems in seats where they already have MPs in one column and seats where they don't have MP's in another column, you will see a difference of several points. It will be close I think. But I predict the Lib Dems nationwide will still end up with more MP's than the SNP will in Scotland.

 

and there is no way Carswell is going to lose Clacton and Farage not gain Thanet. That berk might lose Rochester though. But I do think UKIP gains will be slim. I also put a bet 2 years ago on UKIP gaining Grimsby off Labour. There is no incumbent in Grimsby. The incumbent there, a Labour MP for 38 years but who never got all that big majorities, is retiring. UKIP are going to finish with 3 or 4 MPs.

 

What odds did you get on UKIP in Grimsby?

[JFKvsNixon 11]

the estimates are just reading numbers from the last GE and not taking into account factors like incumbency and also the performance of this government. Quite a lot of Liberal Democrat MP's - who tend to be good incumbents that hold on to their seats anyway - but whose seats are now threatened by a huge swing against them, have still been in a party to the government, they have been on national television, it massively expands their profile locally, this helps them in a big way to hold on to votes in their own constituencies. There will be a big drop in the Lib Dem vote for sure. But I predict if you were to compare the swing against the Lib Dems in seats where they already have MPs in one column and seats where they don't have MP's in another column, you will see a difference of several points. It will be close I think. But I predict the Lib Dems nationwide will still end up with more MP's than the SNP will in Scotland.

 

and there is no way Carswell is going to lose Clacton and Farage not gain Thanet. That berk might lose Rochester though. But I do think UKIP gains will be slim. I also put a bet 2 years ago on UKIP gaining Grimsby off Labour. There is no incumbent in Grimsby. The incumbent there, a Labour MP for 38 years but who never got all that big majorities, is retiring. UKIP are going to finish with 3 or 4 MPs.

 

They address their seat predictions here:

 

When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics.

 

The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls.

 

However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be.

 

Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies.

 

In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.

[blake 10]

why didn't they just put, that if you are smart and are familiar with the individual character of each and every single one of the 650 parliamentary constituencies - which is not all that many to learn - and have the ability to count, then you can probably come up with better guesses than our model can.

[JFKvsNixon 11]

why didn't they just put, that if you are smart and are familiar with the individual character of each and every single one of the 650 parliamentary constituencies - which is not all that many to learn - and have the ability to count, then you can probably come up with better guesses than our model can.

 

So how do you put local knowledge onto a data model that can be rigorously tested?

[blake 10]

What odds did you get on UKIP in Grimsby?

 

2-1 only. It was always one of UKIP's most obvious potential gains. The seat was Labour for a long time but always a touch vulnerable, the incumbent Labour MP only held it from the Tory by 700 votes last time. But if you really know the character of the seat you would know there was quite a lot of residual historical Tory sentiment there that will overflow into UKIP's column this time and translate into a gain for them this time. If UKIP gain Grimsby in the next GE it will just be a Tory gain in disguise as it is one of their seats round there where they have been able to sail close but have never gained.

 

as elsewhere in the east of England, the Lib Dems are nowhere. They have never liked them, round there. East of England is the section of the island where the Lib Dems have performed the worst. Although they have never done as well in London as well as they should either - one thing they have in common with UKIP, who are also useless in London.

[*_ash_* 88]

Milliband is so desperate to get the keys to No 10 he will make a pact with anyone.

 

Imagine this scenario.......Milliband and Sturgeon running the country

 

Horrendous thought. Dumb and Dumber on acid comes to mind.

[Mr Bloom 10]

That's just the sort of coalition that proportional representation could bring about

 

And that is just what this country needs. A massive shake-up because the traditional parties have failed this country. Anyone only needs to look at the Westminster paedophile thread to see that.

[sheff1johnny 10]

Ukip will not get many seats, even though they will probably get more votes than SNP and lib dem put together, but they will mainly be second places.

If this happens though, it should send a message that the country is buckling with an ever growing population. Something needs to be done, and leaving the E U may help.

[blake 10]

I am ready to bet that in all the seats that UKIP stand in (last time, in 2010 it was 539) they will not come second in more than about 100 at most and I think it will probably a lot less than even 100, like 50. Last time they did not manage to finish second in a single one and only in 1 did they even finish 3rd, so if they do manage to reach 50 seats where they finish 2nd or above, then that will represent a huge improvement for them.

[Frederick1 10]

Blake - can see your sentiments but consider one thing.

The Labour party let us down, the Tories have let us down and the Lib Dems let a lot of people down.

It is therefore possible that a lot of voters from these parties will vote for someone else this time.

 

[Deak 10]

Frederick1, I agree with you.

The Con(Dems)servative - Tories,

The Labour - Tories, and the

The Liar Democrats Have ALL, LET US DOWN, BADLY.

I readily admit I had only voted for 1 party until I changed to a different 1 of the 'big 3' at the last election. Never again, fingers (and Bridges) well & truly burned, I am now looking & listening to what the 'Minor'! parties have to say/offer.

I'm 'Sick & Tired' of the 'You MUST ONLY vote for 1 of these 3 parties, or the world will stop turning'!, Brigade.

There ARE alternative parties out there, whichever you want to vote for. Show the strength in your convictions and Vote for them. Don't listen to the 'scaremongers', the reality is, They are the 1's that are scared!. Change does NOT mean the end of the world!.

There is an age-old adage, that,...

'If Voting Ever Changed Anything, Politicians Would Ban It',

It is Long Overdue that adage be put to the test!.

[Alan Ladd 10]

The coalition has not let us down, it has governed wisely and well from a catastrophic background.

 

The English know this, they will vote for Cameron and he will win the English vote decisively.

 

Scotland is different, I have friends up there who are politically active and they do think that the SNP could virtually wipe out Labour.

 

I predict a tight victory for Cameron overall probably by 10 to 15 seats. Or, an extension of the Con/Lib pact