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About *_ash_*

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    formerly djash1000

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  1. It's certainly not good news though. 230,000 A DAY means lots of potential mutations. Viruses don't care about % populations. I still think everything is following the path of Spanish Flu myself (having watching some docus early on). They got complacent when it was thought to be pretty much under control. My 'current' panic level is low, but I'm watching places like China, South Korea and Australia the most. If any of those lose control of it, with such knowledge, restrictions and tech to keep control... I will be very worried.
  2. Which wasn't known in January (or earlier), which is when we are talking about.
  3. I think butlers... once things have calmed down a bit, and more studies are looked at, we'll find out how early it really began, and where. I think some claim maybe as early as late September, especially if access to any bloods samples that were taken and kept before the outbreak are able to be checked. I've seen some claims that blood from pregnant women that are kept, have found positive samples in October/November time, but it's obviously not really talked about, and I obviously can't check things like this... People now want info on economy and vaccines. I don't think many people really care about the origin. That's something for the future. I don't even think anyone yet knows the original animal, though pigs or bats, I think are top of the list, at the moment. As we know, thousands of people die every day. And before the pandemic, we just take them as deaths, flu like symptoms / breathing problems etc. No one would suspect anything until an unusual number of things happen at the same time... i.e. exactly what happened! There are already lots of info to be found, to suggest that it originated a few months earlier... but even as infectious as it is, if the first person is ever known, it could have died out lots of times first from their contacts, without a major outbreak. Hence why we focus on the initial main outbreak at this market. - Don't forget, not everyone is in constant contact with people. for example. If person 1 was in September, then this looks plausible to me... and means it could have started somewhere else other than the market... the earliest claims I have seen were the Italian samples. Which ties in with Italy being the first major outbreak if we remember. if person 1 passed it to 3 people, then no more. (based on the average r=3, which the original is considered to be around) Person 1 might not have passed it on, or was a bit ill and stayed at home - dead end Person 2 might have met no one, and passed it on to no one - dead end Person 3 might have passed it on to 3 (and repeat this) It's not a fast process at first (unless of course the 1st person was in the market, which doesn't seem likely to me) Then at one point in time, someone had it, and worked in place where it could thrive, i.e. same people every day, lots of customers, i.e. Wuhan Market which is the current considered outbreak. I think this is probably right. That's my look on it anyway. I don't read any conspiracy theories, this is how I think it happened based on what I've thought and picked up.
  4. What date was testing first available in the UK? Most people I still think at this time didn't really know anything about it. I think the first post on here wasn't until about the 24th (though the thread has gone, so I can't check)
  5. Good to see you! And was good to speak to you as well, albeit by accident during the lockdown!! (he rang the wrong Ash, but we chatted for about an hour! ) - Good to see some old names back. Inc the DADDY! I haven't posted much since the lockdowns started.
  6. Watch any documentary on Spanish flu (ironically the first thing I mentioned in Feb last year) When a new strain more deadly and more infectious mutation more than likely happens, after everyone thinks it is over, we'll be back at square one. And the same thing will happens: the news will be full of , why didn't you do this, or that earlier. hence why face masks should be compulsory , or at the very least 'heavily' advised to wear, outside, when in town / city centres It's so so blindingly obvious, that I still can't comprehend that this still hasn't sunk in (people or governments) Countries where people wear/wore facemasks, have fared better. (basically all of Asia, AUS, NZ and any places that experienced SARS) It's not hard. Just do what anyone with a brain does. Put mask over face when talking. Though to be honest it's not masks that put me off pubs now. It's everyone no adhering to the bloody obvious. Even in the pharmacy last week, 2 people in front of me, neither wearing a mask. It's not the staff's fault, and I don't expect them or me to intervene (like all the forum ideologists will post, did you report them?) If someone can't respect a simple medical setting, wearing a mask, then they will have no 2nd question about not knocking me out, if I try an intervene. So how do you explain so many countries where people follow either rules / or brain, and they are dealing with it ok? - I've seen all the comments on , why pay a private company to run track n trace... can any of these posters suggest an alternative? Do Labour /Libs / Scottish or England have a department for APPs building?
  7. if there are wasted vaccines as someone mentioned earlier, then bloody shame on them!
  8. Since no one on the tv live updates asks any decent questions... I only watched tonight as Prof. VanTam was on. though saying that, if Laura Kuenesnnburg is first in the queue, I generally turn it off like today... if we were still in the EU, would we also have stopped AZ? Or is open choice?
  9. I'm sure you say this to the nurse, you'll get an amusing response!! haha! Get it done fella. You even get a sticker!! I think a lolly should be included too! I might write to Laura Kunesberg! take it and be safe
  10. If the only reason is the needle, then don't worry Padders. They'll have people terrified of needles all day. It's not being stupid. I know what you mean though, you think being scared they'll scold you for not wanting a potentially life saving vaccine. They are expertly trained in not only medicine, but also dealing with all kinds of people. If you said you wondered about all these people talking nonsense about state powers and microchips, then I'd definitely say is stupid!! haha Just as I'd ask you about something you're an expert in, I now look at what the medical experts say. Vallance, Whitty and Van Tam, I have always listened to. Honestly, you should have it Padders. This virus ISN'T going to just go away. I know we don't like to think or say it, but realistically, I think most of us know it. I know there are lots of NHS staff in here. I bet everyone will say don't worry about needle. Honestly, they see this type of thing (people worried about medical matters) probably almost everyday in their normal working lives (before virus and now - no different). Trust the experts in their field. (all my own opinions, no facts)
  11. Including me, who now can't work out this new quoting system haha
  12. On the radio, new variant... we're going to test a whole postcode... what?! All the answers to how it's done with Sheffield guy in China If they can do it, why can't we?! https://youtu.be/FWjD9V2dyF4
  13. I think at most, it would have been done 2 weeks earlier. We'll never know, but I think it probably would have still gathered pace. Look at what happened when we have reopened! I can only guess, but I think if we'd have shut a couple of weeks earlier, then doubtless many fewer would have died in the first peak, but I also think if we got cases number right right down, like some far-eastern countries did... people would have relaxed too much, and we'd still be in this position now. But probably still huge death count. I've listed things to do in here and online from the start, things we still haven't done! So I'm not happy in the slightest. Did you watch the 30 seconds clip I posted earlier here... https://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/topic/473199-coronavirus-part-two/page/328/?tab=comments#comment-8390967 How difficult is that?! I'm sure instead of wasting billions on our track n trace, we could have rang up Korea or China and asked for a copy of their system, for a few billion,. Where the country has messed up I think, is not copying more of countries that controlled it. Countries around China right down to Aus/NZ had this before with SARS and were far better prepared for it. We should have done more of what they did. Aus/NZ, is different IMO. For a start they can more easily control their borders. Their cities are far more spaced apart than UK, and isolating areas is therefore easier... and as I said above, they were more prepared because they also had SARS thread last time. It's also not a travel hub like London is. Thousands of people going through it everyday. I'm disappointed that this government weren't tougher earlier on, but I'm equally annoyed that the opposition have contributed nothing, other than saying this was a mistake that was a mistake.
  14. A proper lockdown from the start? When do you think is considered the start? January like China did? We didn't have a confirmed case until 1 week AFTER they were in lockdown. Even in here, people were just saying, Oh it's just another SARS MERS rubbish... blah blah I think people have short memories in here. Even now with tens of thousands of cases per day, many people are denying/not following rules etc. Reminder: (of course with hindsight we now know it was rife and spreading fast, but it was so early in the pandemic that it wasn't even 1st in the news. ) Jan 31 - 1 confirmed case. Feb 29 - 23 confirmed cases. March 5 - cases surpasses 100. March 16th - 1500 cases, and 55 deaths. March 18th - death toll exceeds 100 **https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom_(January–June_2020) 100 deaths is 100 too many, but do you think people would have accepted a complete lockdown on 100 people? Some people live in a hindsight dreamworld. Let me tell you, if the government had have locked down then, we would almost certainly have been in a much better state now with cases, but the economy would still have been in big trouble, And all the anti-government lot would now be saying, look at this hopeless government, killed the economy for a harmless bug. What have the opposition done? other than wait for a mistake then complain things not done earlier. (p.s. Comparing to Aus and New Zealand isn't a good comparison, apples and oranges)
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