Tricky Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Here's a counter-prediction Bonjon. I predict that before the end of March the world's stock markets will lose a further 30% seeing the FTSE 100 below 3000, there will runs on banks and maybe a big name financial institution will go under. This will result in a return to the complete paralysis in the housing market we saw in the Autumn. Ooops. Double or quits for April then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomataheeed Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Ooops. Double or quits for April then? Were you correct with all your predictions here? Just to play devils advocate for a minute....mortgage approvals were up last month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tricky Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Were you correct with all your predictions here? Just to play devils advocate for a minute....mortgage approvals were up last month... No, I was completely and utterly wrong. And it was going so well for a while too. However, I'm reasonably confident that the March surge in stock market confidence in the States has a lot to do with the banks' success in ripping off the US taxpayer for hundreds of billions. My guess is that my prediction will get back on track once the Yanks realise they've been mugged again. The G20 announcement will have an impact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 (edited) Just to play devils advocate for a minute....mortgage approvals were up last month... I'd love to see a lot more hard numbers, from independent sources, to support to these generalist "mortgage approvals are up" reports in the media. Specifically, how correlated are they (or not) to someone in an 'average situation'. The fact of the matter is, I have a stellar credit rating, respectable savings and no debts whatsoever (save for about £100 on plastic this month, and only slightly more on a IKEA 12 months-@-0% deal), and as secure a good, professional job as one can have under current conditions. Yet I was refused a credit card by Halifax only last Saturday (only wanted it for the introductory '0% on purchases' period): not enough on the never-never to qualify, apparently Edited March 31, 2009 by L00b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomataheeed Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 I'd love to see a lot more hard numbers, from independent sources, to support to these generalist "mortgage approvals are up" reports in the media. Specifically, how correlated are they (or not) to someone in an 'average situation'. The fact of the matter is, I have a stellar credit rating, respectable savings and no debts whatsoever (save for about £100 on plastic this month, and only slightly more on a IKEA 12 months-@-0% deal), and as secure a good, professional job as one can have under current conditions. Yet I was refused a credit card by Halifax only last Saturday (only wanted it for the introductory '0% on purchases' period): not enough on the never-never to qualify, apparently I'd agree with you - the increase was from such a low level that you could not possibly extrapolate confidence from the information.....hence the Devils advocate comment. Your problem is not having enough credit I would think. I get offers all the time I'm afraid...from my habit of using a credit card and never quite paying it all off...and then allowing the balance to drift up and then having a purge to pay it all off again....I'm in a purge period currently ! They want you to have no trouble paying it off, but not doing so. ie. low risk customer paying interest. The bank keep upping my overdraft limit....its about 4 times my monthly income currently...daft. My single credit card has a limit close to my annual income....again daft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomataheeed Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 No, I was completely and utterly wrong. And it was going so well for a while too. However, I'm reasonably confident that the March surge in stock market confidence in the States has a lot to do with the banks' success in ripping off the US taxpayer for hundreds of billions. My guess is that my prediction will get back on track once the Yanks realise they've been mugged again. The G20 announcement will have an impact though. I'd agree - I think your prediction may turn out to be right....just 2-3 months later than you guessed. The US government is losing its determination to save GM. They booted out Wagner over the weekend, and have thrown the GM recovery plan out and basically called it cobblers. If GM fails in a bad way, a LOT of confidence will be lost in the US. GM is an important company in the US in a way that those in the UK don't really understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tricky Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 I'd agree - I think your prediction may turn out to be right....just 2-3 months later than you guessed. The US government is losing its determination to save GM. They booted out Wagner over the weekend, and have thrown the GM recovery plan out and basically called it cobblers. If GM fails in a bad way, a LOT of confidence will be lost in the US. GM is an important company in the US in a way that those in the UK don't really understand. Too true. And AIG is an important company in the US in a way that nobody anywhere understands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Never fear, house prices are up, says Nationwide this morning And for my next trick... RSVP for next month, when Abbey (or Natwest, or...) takes its turn for making the next upbeat annoucement, which the 'cartel' can think of, to try and prop the market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottf Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 I don't belive that, ill wait till one of the bigger morgage lenders agree with it before i start getting more optimistic. I still think we have another 10-15% to go before the turn comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimitri 11 Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 I would be interested to see how much difference there is between the Halifax, Nationwide and LR figures each month. The annual rates of decline are pretty similar but some of the monthly figures can vary vastly. January's figures from the Halifax showed a rise of something like 2% whereas the LR figures showed a fall of something like -1%. That's a massive difference for monthly house price figures really. I think Nationwide's figures for January were around -1.3% so maybe they are more accurate than the Halifax, I don't know. We will find out on 30 April anyway when the 'official' figures are released by LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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