House Prices Up 2% in Jan, End Of Recession?

[GrannyGranny]

If there are to be anymore falls it certainly wont be the FTB market in Sheffield, the areas I predict are going to get screwed will be the south of Sheffield (S11 will loose massive value), which I dont give a rats ass about as I have no business interests in that area.

 

But the FTB market will be the one rising, so as a whole I suppose there could be a loss in certain areas but not all areas, there are already areas in the FTB market that are rising, this is v.good news.

 

What do you class as the FTB market?

 

I bought my 1st house with my wife (then girlfriend) in S11.

 

The falls will continue across the board. A lot FTBers were dependent on the 100% mortgages which are not available anymore.

 

Its the buyers who have been on the ladder for 10+ years who have the equity and hence have access to the good mortgage deals.

 

Won't they be looking in the areas you don't give a 'rats ass' about?

 

PS. S11 is tecnically SW Sheffield

[Bonjon]

FTB properties as I see it are sub 100k properties.

 

Also mortgages are still readily available for people who have a deposit, I know of plenty of people buying for the first time.

 

As for the 2nd/3rd time buyer the issues they will be having are selling their property in the first place, FTB dont have this issue.

[GrannyGranny]

Sub £100k properties for sale, quick look came up with:

 

S7 - 8

S10 - 10

S11 - 4

S17 - 3

 

But

 

S6 - 63

S8 - 52

[L00b]

FTB properties as I see it are sub 100k properties.

 

I believe that's now an obsolete definition.

 

The FTB market should now be defined in terms of the characteristics of the FTBers themselves, rather than a type/range of properties.

 

I'm an FTB, my market range is £200k to £250k. Another FTB I know is in the market for £300k to £350k, and two others are in the market for £130k to £175k. All with deposit and mortgage approval, none with a lend/deposit ratio > 75%.

[Bonjon]

I believe that's now an obsolete definition.

 

The FTB market should now be defined in terms of the characteristics of the FTBers themselves, rather than a type/range of properties.

 

I'm an FTB, my market range is £200k to £250k. Another FTB I know is in the market for £300k to £350k, and two others are in the market for £130k to £175k. All with deposit and mortgage approval, none with a lend/deposit ratio > 75%.

 

I think you will still find the average is around the 100k mark, there are exceptions, when I bought my first house I could have borrowed upto £500k, but didnt, I borrowed a much smaller amount leaving space to purchase other properties etc. etc.

[L00b]

I think you will still find the average is around the 100k mark.

 

Sub-100k houses don't appear to shift any more than sub-200k houses at present, which is what I based my earlier opinion on.

 

The lower end is also associated with people sufferring from a lesser capacity to borrow than the higher end = traditional volume effect (i.e. many more 100k house selling than 200k houses) is mitigated by current credit access circumstances.

Edited February 27, 2009 by L00b

[Dimitri 11]

If there are to be anymore falls it certainly wont be the FTB market in Sheffield, the areas I predict are going to get screwed will be the south of Sheffield (S11 will loose massive value), which I dont give a rats ass about as I have no business interests in that area.

 

But the FTB market will be the one rising, so as a whole I suppose there could be a loss in certain areas but not all areas,

 

Going on your other posts below as well as this one it looks like you are saying areas with prices below 100k will now stagnate but areas with prices well above 100k will see continued falls. Some areas will probably see bigger falls than others but across the board in Sheffield I can't see the % drops being wildly different. Some areas are more sought after than others and in general the prices will reflect this, if what you are saying is true it is only a matter of time before the more desirable areas are priced similarly to less desirable areas. In general the vast majority of people would live in Hillsborough rather than Parson Cross, Woodseats rather than Low Edges or Handsworth rather than Manor. No offence to anyone here. This alone makes what you are saying highly unlikely, the demand would surely drive up the prices (if they fell to the same level as the less desirable areas) in the more desired areas and keep them higher even if prices are falling.

 

there are already areas in the FTB market that are rising, this is v.good news.

 

Which areas? Do you have any stats/links to back this up?

Edited February 28, 2009 by Dimitri 11

[sweetcorn]

Interesting you chose the lowest price indicator, heres a clearer picture

 

Peak in House Prices: Latest Price: % Change from Peak:

 

Halifax: ----------------------- Aug07 £199,612 ~ Jan09 £163,966 -17.86% - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Nationwide: ------------------- Oct07 £186,044 ~ Feb09 £147,746 -20.59% - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Rightmove: ------------------- May08 £242,500 ~ Feb09 £216,163 -10.86% - initial asking prices

DCLG (formerly ODPM): ----- Jan08 £221,758 ~ Dec08 £195,317 -11.92% completed sales, mix adjusted (experimental)

Land Registry (Monthly): ----- Nov07 £186,009 ~ Dec08 £158,946 -14.55% - sold prices, like for like

Land Registry (Quarterly): --- Q307 £230,474 ~ Q408 £205,372 -10.89% - sold prices, standard average mean, quarterly

 

The reason I chose the Land Registry figures is because their index includes the largest sample of houses sold. The others you mention (Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove) only include the houses THEY have had dealings with. Statistically, the larger the sample set the more accurate the data produced from it.

 

Quote from the Land Registry site: Land Registry's House Price Index is the most accurate independent house price index available. Using our data set of completed sales, it is the only index based on repeat sales. It includes figures at national, regional, county and London borough level.

 

The Land registry figures show that the Halifax rise in January was just a myth as they published their index today which recorded a 1% decline in January (month-on-month). This is the problem with looking at only a portion of the market (like the Halifax index does) as the numbers can be skewed if only a few sales are concluded.

 

However, you also have to remember that this is not an accurate picture of today's market, but those of a few months prior. It normally takes around 3 months for the sale of a house to be completed, so the recent figures represent approx October last year.

 

You will not be able to convince me that the other indices are better as I did statistics at uni... and got a 1st!!!

 

 

For someone who got a 1st in statistics im surprised you didnt look at the figures i quoted more closely, which are all over a 12 month period. As someone with a 1st you should be telling me that a drop in sales, means a larger % overall increase depending on the price of the sale, which is the land registry basis.

 

Finally dont try and impress people with a 1st in statistics, its equivalent to an art degree. I found it quite cringe-worthy, save it for a job interview, never underestimate the academic level of posters on this forum...as im pretty sure mine far outweighs yours, which means nothing as a forum is about opinions.

[Kaye2812]

 

For someone who got a 1st in statistics im surprised you didnt look at the figures i quoted more closely, which are all over a 12 month period. As someone with a 1st you should be telling me that a drop in sales, means a larger % overall increase depending on the price of the sale, which is the land registry basis.

 

Finally dont try and impress people with a 1st in statistics, its equivalent to an art degree. I found it quite cringe-worthy, save it for a job interview, never underestimate the academic level of posters on this forum...as im pretty sure mine far outweighs yours, which means nothing as a forum is about opinions.

 

I wasn't disputing the figures from the other indices, just that the choice of index I made was due to the sample size taken. I used this a basis to express my 'opinion' on the house price falls (which is the subject of this thread). My original point was that house prices in Sheffield have not fallen by as much as the national average, as demonstrated in the index, and that you cannot apply a one figure fits all approach to different markets across the UK.

 

My degree was not purely statistics, it was just one of the main parts. Art degrees are very different, and it seems a little juvenile to me why you need to resort to personal attacks. You cannot criticise me for mentioning accademic qualifications and then state that yours far outweigh them... pot and kettle come to mind! You should stick to the subject being discussed in the Forum and present your 'opinions' on the house price falls.

[Cyclone]

If there are to be anymore falls it certainly wont be the FTB market in Sheffield, the areas I predict are going to get screwed will be the south of Sheffield (S11 will loose massive value), which I dont give a rats ass about as I have no business interests in that area.

 

But the FTB market will be the one rising, so as a whole I suppose there could be a loss in certain areas but not all areas, there are already areas in the FTB market that are rising, this is v.good news.

 

Good news for who? It's certainly not good news for the FTB involved as average prices are still way above the historic average of 3.5 times income.