Just put house up for sale...

[Tomataheeed 10]

I've not read the Black Swan, I've heard of it and very loosely know what it's about but that's about it. Care to give an insight?

 

I'm worried about the government forcing banks to lend again; will they be sensible or will they go back to the lending practices that buggered the whole system up in the first place and brought us into this HUGE mess... surely not they won't... will they? They don't really believe debt = growth, do they?

 

It's either that or lend, lend, lend and hyperinflate the problems and the mahoosive, nasty bail-out numbers away. Neither are good, and both reward the stupid and penalise the sensible.

 

 

I'm about 2/3 of the way through the book and its quite difficult to explain actually ! There is a lot about the mathematical cobblers we are fed in regards to risk.....the writer used to be a trader and became very disillusioned with the big investment banks. There is a lot about how we focus almost exclusively on managing small predictable risks, and no one spends any time really "thinking" about the bigger, less predictable risks....the "Black Swan" of the title. The book was written about 2 years ago, so its very interesting to be reading it now...its particularly interesting to me as I studied Maths and Statistics at uni. The author was on Newsnight on Friday actually...I didn't watch it all unfortunately, but he seemed to be very agitated with everyone else on the panel !

[Tomataheeed 10]

I've not read the Black Swan, I've heard of it and very loosely know what it's about but that's about it. Care to give an insight?

 

I'm worried about the government forcing banks to lend again; will they be sensible or will they go back to the lending practices that buggered the whole system up in the first place and brought us into this HUGE mess... surely not they won't... will they? They don't really believe debt = growth, do they?

 

It's either that or lend, lend, lend and hyperinflate the problems and the mahoosive, nasty bail-out numbers away. Neither are good, and both reward the stupid and penalise the sensible.

 

 

The important thing is to be lending to businesses and individuals that they SHOULD be lending to. They've stopped lending almost altogether to just hoard cash and stay afloat. Lets hope they get it right.....getting it wrong either way is bad news. Lending too little in the right place is just as bad as lending too much. Where the correct middle path is....who knows.

[L00b 441]

They don't really believe debt = growth, do they?

 

The banks don't. That Gordon Brown does is the problem

[SupraSteve 10]

I'm about 2/3 of the way through the book and its quite difficult to explain actually ! There is a lot about the mathematical cobblers we are fed in regards to risk.....the writer used to be a trader and became very disillusioned with the big investment banks. There is a lot about how we focus almost exclusively on managing small predictable risks, and no one spends any time really "thinking" about the bigger, less predictable risks....the "Black Swan" of the title. The book was written about 2 years ago, so its very interesting to be reading it now...its particularly interesting to me as I studied Maths and Statistics at uni. The author was on Newsnight on Friday actually...I didn't watch it all unfortunately, but he seemed to be very agitated with everyone else on the panel !

Aren't we all?

 

 

That sounds really interesting, I may have to force myself to make time for it one day (I've read maybe 5 books since leaving school!). Thanks

[SupraSteve 10]

The important thing is to be lending to businesses and individuals that they SHOULD be lending to. They've stopped lending almost altogether to just hoard cash and stay afloat. Lets hope they get it right.....getting it wrong either way is bad news. Lending too little in the right place is just as bad as lending too much. Where the correct middle path is....who knows.

I completely agree! So the question we should be asking ourselves is; what are the chances that they've got it dead right?

 

I'm struggling to see why the rescue package has given the market a good feeling (up ~10% this week - but keeping that in perspective, still not as high as it was 1 week ago) YET at the same time the banks are mostly down (so was it good news or not then?) PLUS analysts agree that we're entering a "deep recession" - so why would the rest of industry be up? Hmmm.....

 

Dead cat bounce? I think so, but I'm not certain.

[Tricky 10]

... The author was on Newsnight on Friday actually...I didn't watch it all unfortunately, but he seemed to be very agitated with everyone else on the panel !

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXPICWjFIo

[SupraSteve 10]

3 articles have caught my eye (note caught my eye - nothing more, nothing less) today:

 

This one, from the Telegraph "Selling houses: First Person"

Nice snippets of reality & advice in there that sum up where sellers currently find themselves.

A good point is raised, too:

...although the "average" drop of 12.4 per cent over the past year, reported by the Halifax... it disguises a more frightening reality. Namely that, with only the best houses selling, the drop in price of the average house is far greater than those figures imply.

 

 

This one, from the Times: "Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear" not because of the ridiculous title (note that it is the view of one of the biggest failing bank's chief economist!), but the brilliant, brilliant comments below the story that truly reflect the people's opinion.

 

e.g.:

Anybody who pays attention to anything these so-called experts say must be an idiiot. There is only one thing anybody needs to know is that The City is run by fools. I won't buy a house until the prices have totally collapsed. The lowering of interest rates is just a trap for more debt.

 

For house prices to "bounce back" one has to assume:that bank shareholders are masochists.

 

If the chief economist at Morgan Stanley makes predictions like this, no wonder they are doing so badly.

 

Why are there no flying pigs in the picture?!

There are 30 comments as I type, well worth a light-hearted read!

 

 

 

And finally this one, from the Guardian: "Prices to bounce back ... in 2023"

[SupraSteve 10]

The worst is not behind us, things will get much, much worse.

Yes it's a long video (35mins without questions), but if you're able to understand it, I urge you to watch it in full.

 

This guy is the chap I linked to earlier in the thread, and one of the very few people I'd listen to; he's been right so far, despite other 'experts' initially contradicting his views and then realising he's been right and changing their views to match his.

 

It's a freefall. There is no systemic liquidity in the system.

A financial and economic wreck is the only thing I see coming.

[SupraSteve 10]

House prices fell a whopping 2.2% in October, Halifax reported today.

 

By the same index, prices are now 15.7% down from their bubble peak making the average home now valued at £30k less.

 

 

I stand by my earlier thoughts and predictions, and see many more falls to come. We haven't seen the bulk of it yet; the real economic forces that will lower prices are only just starting to take effect.

[nickyboyzuk 10]

With job cuts happening all over the place, this can only get worse. The BOE can cut rates all they like but that won't make the banks lend to business.

 

Without successful businesses we can't keep people in work and without people in work, they can't buy houses.

 

As has been said, we are only at the beginning of a very painful and distressing depression.

[SupraSteve 10]

For thos who are interested, I spotted this purely anecdotal article on the prices of flats (sorry, 'apartments'), which mentions Sheffield a lot:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3410559/Britains-city-centres-left-reeling-by-house-price-crash.html

[sham71 10]

http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?D=F&A=582&ID=582000447&MP=24&RQ=&S=C&O=A

 

anyone fancy a repossessed West One flat for 70k (guide price).......

 

ouch