COVID THREAD

[RJRB 688]

11 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

 

Huge numbers of people had an adverse reaction, though I accept that for most it was nothing long term serious (just like Long Covid in fact....).

 

 

What is an adverse reaction directly attributable to Covid Vaccine?

Which passing acquaintance or friend of a friend are you going to produce in support of a sweeping statement this time.

 

[altus 540]

6 hours ago, Chekhov said:

I cannot be arsed to research and list them all at once (and some was stuff I'd heard on the R4 news, so I don't know how I'd do that anyway) but each time we have a "Quote for the Day !" I'll put on the original source and namecheck you.

Just to keep you happy.

But, of course, there are none so blind anyway, so this isn't really for you as I am sure it'll make no difference to you at all.

Anyone who makes the point "compare it to if we'd have done nothing" (when doing nothing at all was NEVER going to happen anyway) quite plainly has  a closed mind

 

 

The point of "compare it to if we'd have done nothing" is that by removing the context, for all anyone knows, you give a misleading impression of what was claimed (and you have done that before so you've forfeited any benefit of the doubt you might otherwise have had). All the articles you selectively quote from could have had "compared to doing Chekhov's preferred option" and it wouldn't change the point about removing the context being potentially misleading.

[Chekhov 488]

On 19/01/2024 at 11:48, Delayed said:

Cop out. Accuse someone of a Straw man and avoid the point. 

Admit it, you don't know what a strawman argument is do you ?

Let me educate you :

 

informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion

 

 

[Chekhov 488]

23 hours ago, altus said:

 

The point of "compare it to if we'd have done nothing" is that by removing the context, for all anyone knows, you give a misleading impression of what was claimed (and you have done that before so you've forfeited any benefit of the doubt you might otherwise have had). All the articles you selectively quote from could have had "compared to doing Chekhov's preferred option" and it wouldn't change the point about removing the context being potentially misleading.

It isn't nonsense.

I feel we need a Quote for the day !

 

Early March 2020 : "We could have 4,000 to 6,000 deaths a day"
Mid March 2020 : "We could have half a million Covid deaths in the UK"
19 March 2020 : "12 weeks to flatten the curve".
Late March 2020 : "This virus is indiscriminate"
5 Apr 2020 - "It's not worth it [it's too dangerous]" (sitting on an outdoor park bench)   
May 2020 : "Politicians have become more cautious about immunisation prospects. They are right to be"

Today's quote for the day :
November 2020 : "Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day in the worst case scenario".
Spring 2021 : "Get double vaccinated to get out of Covid and back to normal" (it actually took a further year).
May 2021 :  Pupils should keep wearing masks into the summer, Sage told ministers
July 2021 : "Freedom day is irresponsible, we could have 200K cases per day by August".
11 Dec 2021 : "Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April"
Dec 2021 : "Central estimate" 2890 Omicron deaths a day
15 Dec 2021 : "Omicron likely to be the biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far".

 

What actually happened :

 

 

It actually only went over 1,000 (one quarter of the alarmist prediction) for a period of about three weeks and peaked at around 1350 for about one week (and many of them did not actually die OF Covid), before quickly dropping back down. Before the pandemic an average about 1,800 people were dying every day, because, err, everyone dies.....

 

Now we don't want anybody coming out with cobblers like "but we would have had 4,000 deaths day if we hadn't locked everyone down" do we ?

On no, we don't.

So, let's take a country which the authoritarians over here were criticising for not suppressing their society : Brazil.

The worst death rate in Brazil was in Apr 2021 and it peaked (for a brief few days) at about 4,000 a day, though not all will have died of Covid, obviously.

But Brazil's population is 215million, about 3.3X ours.

4,000 divided by 3.3 is 1212, i.e. not that much different from us in our locked down nightmare (with the kids off school for seven months, still, at least it means I can take our lad off school and to Australia for two weeks and not have to feel guilty about it ! ).

NEXT.

Edited January 24 by Chekhov

[Chekhov 488]

On 23/01/2024 at 10:05, RJRB said:

What is an adverse reaction directly attributable to Covid Vaccine?

Which passing acquaintance or friend of a friend are you going to produce in support of a sweeping statement this time.

Are you telling me you do not know anyone who had an adverse reaction to the Covid jab ?

That'd be the sort of unlikely guff that @Delayed, or @Prettytom, or any of that lot would come out with. The kind of people who know loads of kids who died of Covid,  and have loads of mates with houses that are warm as toast using just their air source heat pumps, and who are personally are acquainted with many children who were abducted because a parent filmed them at a school performance. You know, those sort of people. .....

[altus 540]

17 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

It isn't nonsense.

I feel we need a Quote for the day !

 

Early March 2020 : "We could have 4,000 to 6,000 deaths a day"
Mid March 2020 : "We could have half a million Covid deaths in the UK"
19 March 2020 : "12 weeks to flatten the curve".
Late March 2020 : "This virus is indiscriminate"
5 Apr 2020 - "It's not worth it [it's too dangerous]" (sitting on an outdoor park bench)   
May 2020 : "Politicians have become more cautious about immunisation prospects. They are right to be"

Today's quote for the day :
November 2020 : "Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day in the worst case scenario".
Spring 2021 : "Get double vaccinated to get out of Covid and back to normal" (it actually took a further year).
May 2021 :  Pupils should keep wearing masks into the summer, Sage told ministers
July 2021 : "Freedom day is irresponsible, we could have 200K cases per day by August".
11 Dec 2021 : "Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April"
Dec 2021 : "Central estimate" 2890 Omicron deaths a day
15 Dec 2021 : "Omicron likely to be the biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far".

 

What actually happened :

 

 

It actually only went over 1,000 (one quarter of the alarmist prediction) for a period of about three weeks and peaked at around 1350 for about one week (and many of them did not actually die OF Covid), before quickly dropping back down. Before the pandemic an average about 1,800 people were dying every day, because, err, everyone dies.....

 

Now we don't want anybody coming out with cobblers like "but we would have had 4,000 deaths day if we hadn't locked everyone down" do we ?

On no, we don't.

So, let's take a country which the authoritarians over here were criticising for not suppressing their society : Brazil.

The worst death rate in Brazil was in Apr 2021 and it peaked (for a brief few days) at about 4,000 a day, though not all will have died of Covid, obviously.

But Brazil's population is 215million, about 3.3X ours.

4,000 divided by 3.3 is 1212, i.e. not that much different from us in our locked down nightmare (with the kids off school for seven months, still, at least it means I can take our lad off school and to Australia for two weeks and not have to feel guilty about it ! ).

NEXT.

That's not a link to your source - just you selectively quoting a graph that may or may not have come from the same source as your claimed quote.

 

The more you avoid posting links your your sources, the more it looks like you're trying to hide the fact that your sources contradict what you claim they say.

[Delayed 466]

30 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Are you telling me you do not know anyone who had an adverse reaction to the Covid jab ?

That'd be the sort of unlikely guff that @Delayed, or @Prettytom, or any of that lot would come out with. The kind of people who know loads of kids who died of Covid,  and have loads of mates with houses that are warm as toast using just their air source heat pumps, and who are personally are acquainted with many children who were abducted because a parent filmed them at a school performance. You know, those sort of people. .....

Absolute gobsh**e

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

Admit it, you don't know what a strawman argument is do you ?

Let me educate you :

 

informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion

 

 

Not sure I should admit to anything when you clearly don't 

[peak4 282]

I wonder if some folk understand what "Worst Case Scenario" means?

Adverse reaction to a C19 Vaccine; lots and lots of people, me included; I had a tender arm after one dose, and felt crap for a day or so after another.
This is why people who fail to understand the Yellow Card Scheme are prone to  misunderstanding and/or misusing it.

See also https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/covid-vaccine-fact-file-bogus-claims-and-side-effects

“For all COVID-19 vaccines, the overwhelming majority of reports relate to injection-site reactions (sore arm for example) and generalised symptoms such as ‘flu-like’ illness, headache, chills, fatigue (tiredness), nausea (feeling sick), fever, dizziness, weakness, aching muscles, and rapid heartbeat. Generally, these happen shortly after the vaccination and are not associated with more serious or lasting illness.”

When it comes to rare cases of severe reactions to vaccines, the MHRA advice is clear – for the vast majority of people the threat from Covid is much greater than any vaccine side effect. This is about balancing the small risk from side effects against the much greater benefits of protection from the virus."

Serious/Severe adverse reaction; personally I don't know anyone, and certainly no-one who required hospital admission.

Pick your country and tick the box in this website; hint even compared to Brazil we didn't exactly do very well.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

You can confirm ours here
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

 

I wonder about this quote; note the date and whether it was pre or post vaccine roll out

"May 2020 : "Politicians have become more cautious about immunisation prospects. They are right to be""

Fortunately that one is easy to trace, but I'm really not sure  why it's being quoted
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

I keep trying to search for this list, but the searches seem a bit circular; most point back to this forum, though there is one expert on the topic who crops up on a triathlete forum
https://forum.tritalk.co.uk/t/covid-19-the-thread/1357/17429

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chekhov 488]

2 hours ago, altus said:

That's not a link to your source - just you selectively quoting a graph that may or may not have come from the same source as your claimed quote.

The more you avoid posting links your your sources, the more it looks like you're trying to hide the fact that your sources contradict what you claim they say.

Can you not read ?

That's a BBC logo in the corner.....

 

TBH I think you are blind to anything that contradicts your view, but since you insist :

 

How many people could actually die?
One of the most alarming charts presented by the government when it announced the latest lockdown on Saturday looked at a range of scenarios for the number of predicted deaths in England.

The worst projection suggested deaths could reach 4,000 a day - as the graph below shows.

But it now turns out that projection was out-of-date.

It was based on figures from the start of October, which show by now there should be 1,000 deaths a day. The current average is a quarter of that number.

What is more, the Public Health England and the Cambridge University team that produced it have since published reports based on the more recently available data.

Grilled by MPs on this on Tuesday, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said he apologised if it caused confusion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54785032

 

50 minutes ago, peak4 said:

I wonder if some folk understand what "Worst Case Scenario" means?

If you take that literally it is an almost completely pointless prediction designed to scare spineless politicians into the type of action the predictor thinks is "being in the safe side"

Edited January 24 by Chekhov

[RJRB 688]

2 hours ago, Chekhov said:

Are you telling me you do not know anyone who had an adverse reaction to the Covid jab ?

That'd be the sort of unlikely guff that @Delayed, or @Prettytom, or any of that lot would come out with. The kind of people who know loads of kids who died of Covid,  and have loads of mates with houses that are warm as toast using just their air source heat pumps, and who are personally are acquainted with many children who were abducted because a parent filmed them at a school performance. You know, those sort of people. .....

Firstly define adverse reaction.

On one occasion I felt as though I had a slightly bruised arm if I touched it and on 2 occasions my wife felt a bit off the next day so went to bed early and slept it off.

That is the sum total of my families experience including my sons,their wives and in laws.

Friends....nothing to report.

I have no first hand knowledge of anyone with a more serious reaction.

That is not to say that I doubt that some have had a serious reaction but just look at the figures available as compared to the total vaccine roll out.

Now you can detail your first hand knowledge and experience.

[Chekhov 488]

18 hours ago, peak4 said:

Pick your country and tick the box in this website; hint even compared to Brazil we didn't exactly do very well.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Cobblers, there wasn't a huge difference between most of the countries, and even less if one accounts for the fact the UK is a fatter population compared to the others :

 

Covid deaths per million (though not all will actually have died OF Covid, particularly after spring 2021, and even more so after early 2022) - data to 14 Dec 22
(obesity rate %)

 

Peru = 6463 (20%)
Hungary = 5036 (26%)
Czech Republic = 3910 (26%)
USA = 3320 (42%)
Greece = 3342 (25%)
Brazil = 3211 (23%)
Poland = 3137 (20%)
Italy = 3027 (20%)
UK = 2887 (28%)
Belgium = 2840 (22%)
Spain = 2492 (24%)
France = 2441 (22%)
Sweden = 2075 (21%)
Germany = 1903 (22%)

 

Other obesity rates : Japan = 4%, South Korea = 5%, Singapore = 6%, China =  6%, India = 4%

 

Plus what happened afterwards..... :

 

 

Edited January 25 by Chekhov

[altus 540]

51 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Can you not read ?

That's a BBC logo in the corner.....

Do you not understand "link to your source"? It means post a link to the page you got it from. Effectively saying "It's on the BBC web site" is not much better than "I found it via a Google search".

 

Quote

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54785032

The text you claim is a quote

Quote

"Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day in the worst case scenario".

is not present in that article. Care to explain why? Did you get it from somewhere else? (In which case where?) Did you paraphrase that article? (In which case it's not a quote and why should we trust anything else you claim is a quote?)