Do you feel in recession?

[steveroberts]

I can only speak from my experience of the business community, I know, in our region.

 

We have had a good year (not our best but still good) and our pipeline of future work is fuller now than it has ever been (of which a lot are clients coming back to us for more design work i.e. they are starting to spend again).

 

Sheffield Chamber says they have had a record number of applications for export licences in Q1 this year.

 

Many of the businesses we work for and companies that supply us are all telling us that they have been really busy in Q1 as well.

 

Traffic in and out of Sheffield, at peak times, still seems to be as busy as ever.

 

So where is the recession actually taking place?

 

I'm not saying that our economy is booming, but it certainly does not feel like a recession from our perspective?

Edited April 26, 2012 by steveroberts
typo

[L00b]

<...>So where is the recession actually taking place?

 

I'm not saying that our economy is booming, but it certainly does not feel like a recession from our perspective?

All good points, but I'd venture that the acid test is "how is your cashflow", not "how busy are you" or "how busy do things look like"

 

Personally, (as you know) we've been getting busier and busier since the 'big drop' of mid-2009 to mid-2010 approx...but not with our core 'traditional' services. On the contrary, and as I fully expected it, with enforcement/litigation. I've never done so little prosecution work in my career than over the past 12 months and, conversely, never dealt with so much contentious work - great, as that's the professional area which really ticks my boxes...but then again, it's hours-heavy and makes for loud bills, rather than routine tasks resulting in a steady stream of smaller bills, and a non-trivial number of clients struggle with them (genuinely, or as part of their own cashflow "management methods", to call them that).

 

Very few clients have resumed filing programs to pre-2009 levels, most clients have severely restricted geographical coverage, and we experience vastly more defaulting/vanishing overseas associates, and clients requesting payment 'arrangements'.

 

I'm busy, very much so...but many a day, getting paid for my services feels like Sisyphus' task. I get the exact same 'noises' from the rest of the profession, and not only in the UK, from chit-chat with peers and professional publications.

 

Saying all that, it looks like the Gvt's PR machine about the incoming Patent Box tax relief is starting to bear fruits, we are getting steadily more enquiries about 'purposeful' filings . Takes me back to my Dublin days (IE has benefitted from similar IP-based tax incentives for donkey's years), when we regularly had to beat clients off with big sticks at the door

 

As indicia, we've just taken on a Biz Dev person (employee, not contractor), and I think we are looking for another trainee attorney - so, not feeling too much in recession I suppose

Edited April 26, 2012 by L00b

[steveroberts]

Stefan,

 

You are so right about cash flow. I'm pleased to report that our cash flow is also the best it has ever been (in fact our bank is so pleased they've even offered to extend our overdraft facility as well).

[SportsTrophy]

Like an interview on BBC Breakfast one firm has doubled production over the last 12 months. They were asked how they did it, they said simple we lost half the work force and bought our components from China.

 

If that is the solution then we are going to be in a serious mess with this unsustainable spiral of last man standing attitude.

 

I am glad you are riding this but you have your eyes shut.

[Cyclone]

My entire industry seems to be booming, I'm getting calls from agents all the time, there's more work about than there are people to do it.

[L00b]

Like an interview on BBC Breakfast one firm has doubled production over the last 12 months. They were asked how they did it, they said simple we lost half the work force and bought our components from China.

 

If that is the solution then we are going to be in a serious mess with this unsustainable spiral of last man standing attitude.

Not really - it's more like the natural order of (business) things.

 

Importing and exporting finished/semi-finished/component goods, has been the way of the world since the Romans and even earlier.

I am glad you are riding this but you have your eyes shut.

I work with local, national and overseas clients, all of whom 'make things', and who all, without exception, deal with manufacturing and sales in BRIC countries.

 

Nothing to do with eyes shut, all to do with business competition and opportunities: UK businesses cannot compete re. unskilled/semi-skilled manpower (and, increasingly, skilled as well!) any more, by an order of magnitude or two. Simple as.

 

But they know how to make better/smarter/etc. 'things', because they've been at it some centuries longer than the up-&-coming countries: that's the main advantage for staying 'on top', and -most importantly- to try and upkeep (because the up-&-coming countries are busy trying to catch up through means fair and foul).

 

Sentimentalist notions of national preference, e.g. for employment, are laudable...but utterly irrelevant: you can have a competitive and profitable UK business that employs more or less people and pays taxes, or an uncompetitive business that eventually fails and stops contributing - which one do you want?

 

Don't kid yourself: at macro-economical level, most of the ill-effects of the recession have been down to poor cashflow management, helped in now small way by too easy/too lax loan practices. Anywhere you care to look. The first companies to go were those most exposed/in hock to the bank, when the banks turned the taps off. The next companies were those most exposed/in hock to these (suppliers, typically). Domino effect after that, internationally, and here you are.

Edited April 26, 2012 by L00b

[Driskell01]

I am also busier now than I have ever been. Due to the ever increasing workload I decided to incorporate last year and since then have managed to get larger projects.

I get a fair amount of work from a close friend and for the first time in 6 years he is turning work away due to not having the capacity to do it.

 

I just pray that the media don't hype this up so much that we are talked into it, and people stop spending due to fear.

[indizine]

Yes, busiest time ever, cashflow is good, I am fortunate to have great customers.

[Chez2]

It seems to depend on what market sector you are in and where your customers are. My customers are very varied and the geographical areas they sell into are very varied too. Some are doing well, others not so well. Some have a big difference between their UK and export sales.

[steveroberts]

Yes, busiest time ever, cashflow is good, I am fortunate to have great customers.

 

You have great customers because you offer a great service