Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

[apelike 10]

44 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The Scots are in a win-win situation.

 

If the UK leaves the EU, Scotland will almost certainly leave the UK with or without England's permission.

Dont be daft it cant. Even wee Krankie has stated that they will need the permission of the government to even hold another referendum, and even if they do its still doubtful they would gain independence. Its a pity that they never got independence before the referendum though as that would almost certainly have given leave a much bigger majority win.

[Cyclone 10]

If the UK continues on and leaves the EU then it's almost guaranteed that Scotland will leave and the UK of GB will cease to exist.

I guess that's what the brexiters voted for though.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

10 hours ago, apelike said:

Its a pity that they never got independence before the referendum though as that would almost certainly have given leave a much bigger majority win.

 

Not as much as you would think!

 

If you take Scotland out of the referendum result altogether, the leave vote would only go up by about 1.5% from 36% of the electorate to about 38%, largely due to the relatively small population of Scotland.

 

It is worth remembering that 15.2 million of the 17.5 million leave votes in 2016 came from England, so Brexit is very much an 'English thing' rather than a 'UK thing'. That is why those who advised Teresa May last month that a hard Brexit would break up the UK were absolutely right.

[apelike 10]

2 hours ago, Cyclone said:

If the UK continues on and leaves the EU then it's almost guaranteed that Scotland will leave and the UK of GB will cease to exist.

Scotland just cant up and leave and that is the problem they face. They need to first get permission from the government to hold a legal referendum and that referendum must have a majority vote to leave. At present it is still very unlikely that a majority of the Scottish voters will vote to leave the UK.

[melthebell 865]

2 minutes ago, apelike said:

At present it is still very unlikely that a majority of the Scottish voters will vote to leave the UK.

IF brexit happened (since Scotland is mainly remain) do you think that would make more Scots look at Ireland and think hmmm maybe i might vote for independence?

[apelike 10]

15 minutes ago, melthebell said:

IF brexit happened (since Scotland is mainly remain) do you think that would make more Scots look at Ireland and think hmmm maybe i might vote for independence?

Maybe, maybe not. Scotland do not have an automatic right to hold a legal referendum and are dependent on Westminster to give them the go-ahead which makes it a slightly different matter.

[melthebell 865]

3 minutes ago, apelike said:

Maybe, maybe not. Scotland do not have an automatic right to hold a legal referendum and are dependent on Westminster to give them the go-ahead which makes it a slightly different matter.

scotlands always been held by force, do you really want another war?...sparked by the stupidity of brexit

[Top Cats Hat 10]

The chaos a no deal Brexit would cause would allow the Scottish Parliament to hold their own referendum which if opposed by Westminster could very soon lead to Scotland declaring UDI. 

 

I doubt an under the cosh London government would want to fight on a number of different fronts.

[apelike 10]

17 minutes ago, melthebell said:

scotlands always been held by force, do you really want another war?...sparked by the stupidity of brexit

Another war!!!! Really.

 

9 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The chaos a no deal Brexit would cause would allow the Scottish Parliament to hold their own referendum which if opposed by Westminster could very soon lead to Scotland declaring UDI. 

If they hold their own referendum without the permission of Westminster then it would be only be a token gesture and legally invalid so declaring UDI would be a stupid move. In that scenario the EU would not entertain and enter into any discussion regarding its future membership so they would basically be shooting themselves in the foot.

Edited April 25, 2019 by apelike

[Cyclone 10]

So what you're saying is that Scotland might not leave, if they are refused permission to actually vote on it...  But if they get a vote, then they'd be off like a shot, and very shortly rejoining the EU.

Well, what a result, that's definitely what the brexiters wanted wasn't it.  A union held together by refusal to allow democracy to happen.  Isn't a constant chant of Democracy in action what you've been doing ever since the illegal leave campaign swung the non-binding vote in your favour?  That and desperately trying to avoid any more democracy in the form of a second vote.

[apelike 10]

5 minutes ago, Cyclone said:

So what you're saying is that Scotland might not leave, if they are refused permission to actually vote on it...  But if they get a vote, then they'd be off like a shot, and very shortly rejoining the EU.

Where have I stated that?  What I have said is very clear, they might not leave even if they are given permission to vote on it.

 

5 minutes ago, Cyclone said:

Isn't a constant chant of Democracy in action what you've been doing ever since the illegal leave campaign swung the non-binding vote in your favour?  That and desperately trying to avoid any more democracy in the form of a second vote.

Again, where have I stated that. I have always maintained on this thread that if parliament want to give the voters a second chance at voting then that is democracy and I would accept it. BTW the leave campaign was not illegal, what was found to be illegal was some of the funding and being non-binding makes no difference at all as parliament approved the outcome.

[Cyclone 10]

The campaign was found to have broken the law, a court has said that if it were actually a binding referendum then they would order it to be redone, but since it was advisory they can't.

Parliament "approved" the outcome of a non-binding referendum...  I don't think that statement really means anything.

 

I think it's quite clear that Scotland would and will leave if the UK continues on and leaves the EU.  But these are just our opinions, time will tell.  Of course it won't make it any better for us that I'll be able to say "told you so" as the UK ceases to exist.