The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[Carlinate]

Well overthrowing the Government happens every at least every 5 years so I can have my cake AND eat it!

 

My reasons:

1. I object ideologically to being part of a largely un-democratic union that wants further political integration. I don't see the point in fighting it so would prefer out.

2. I think the EU is too unwieldy and costs too much money, propagating a Eurocrat class stuffed with self interest.

3. I object to UK taxes being used to pay child related benefits for migrant workers who work here and their children live elsewhere. I don't see how that makes sense.

4. I would like us to be able to decide who enters the country and on what terms.

5. I'd like our laws to be made by our Parliament and not somewhere else. If someone has a good idea then by all means adopt best practice from abroad, but our laws should be made where we have the opportunity to vote directly for the law makers.

 

Those are the main ones that spring to mind.

I think the bit that a lot of people don't get is that I am willing to pay an economic price, if there is one, for that.

 

1, It's already been pointed out that Cameron obtained an agreement in 2016 which guaranteed no future integration into the EU for the UK.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjy1unwsoHVAhWKLMAKHTMNCpsQFghBMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fopeneurope.org.uk%2Ftoday%2Fblog%2Fwhat-did-the-uk-achieve-in-its-eu-renegotiation%2F&usg=AFQjCNFyoadBquq82mdIvJsNhg-7EoGhMg Brexiteers apparent inability to take note of what is actually happening and continuing to believe the Ukip/Daily Mail type propaganda is one of the most exasperating things about this debate.

 

2, Totally agree, no argument whatsoever, the completely ridiculous monthly move of MEPs between Brussels and Strasbourg being the daftest example of this. 114 million Euro a year wasted for political cosmetics.

I'm no Europhile, lots of things need altering but we're not going to do it once we've left and it certainly wasn't worth leaving for.

Have you ever taken note of some of the waste our government is responsible for?

 

3, Haven't got a problem with it. If they are employed here then they are contributing to our economy and they need to make provision for their family. Providing it's administered correctly of course.

 

4, We can, we have full responsibility for all non EU people who enter the country which is over 50% of the total and we refused to sign up for the Schengen agreement so we retain passport control at our borders.

The fact that we are apparently useless at it isn't the fault of the EU and no doubt will remain the same after we've left.

 

5, Our laws are made by our parliament but as members of a trading organisation we accept rules which we incorporate in order to enjoy the benefits of membership.A number of EU rules are in fact beneficial to the public and may be scrapped to our detriment once we have left.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjl07DCuIHVAhVELMAKHSPoD8oQFggtMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit-15-eu-laws-we-will-miss-in-britain-a7103031.html&usg=AFQjCNHYbli-J3PN54KX61IzE7yyb9IcXw

Unless a particular law is unjust what is the problem with accepting it and going about your business?

Do you have a specific EU law which irks you to such a degree that you think going through all this uncertainty is worth it, and what guarantee do you have that that one will be scrapped when we leave?

[jeremyjh1]

Slightly patronising, but I'll move on.

I don't know, things seem to be going quite well with the USA, so we'll start with the worlds largest economy and take it from there. Failing that we have the WTO terms which is what we have with most of these trade blocs anyway as the EU doesn't seem to have used its vast might, that everyone seems scared to be losing, to actually negotiate deals with the largest economies. So how will we be worse?

 

Largest economy, by GDP, maybe, but if you look at potential customers, it would be China, then India, then the EU, then the USA.

 

Now, if you consider Trump's America First mantra, do you think the UK will get a great deal from the US (one that puts the UK first)?

 

Besides, how long do you think it will take to negotiate an extremely complex trading arrangement between two very extensive, diverse economies? If we only had a few products to sell, it might be a year or 3. But, the UK has hundreds of thousands of commodities as do the US. How long do you think it will take for a deal like that to be negotiated to suit both sides, but not favour one over the other?

 

If you think this can be sorted out so that once UK leaves EU there will be a deal with the US ready to go, then you will be sorely mistaken.

 

Why do think May is effectively laying her legs wide open for Trump? Because she knows the EU will play hardball and she's hoping she can butter Trump up.

 

Big mistake.

 

If UK policy for the future prosperity of this country is to play goo-eyes at the sexist, bigot in the WH........

 

Oh dear.:(

[TheNugget]

I'd hate to think I'd be 10% a year worse off.

 

You never know you might be 10% richer.

[L00b]

Slightly patronising, but I'll move on.

I'm just stating the obvious for the sake of time-saving: I'm not going to explain how and why membership of an exclusive trading club comes with strings attached, particularly as regards the freedom to negotiate one's own deals 'on the side' (since this practice effectively nullifies the negotiating strength that derives from the pooled economies).

I don't know, things seem to be going quite well with the USA, so we'll start with the worlds largest economy and take it from there. Failing that we have the WTO terms which is what we have with most of these trade blocs anyway as the EU doesn't seem to have used its vast might, that everyone seems scared to be losing, to actually negotiate deals with the largest economies.

 

So how will we be worse?

That one is elementary: in the absence of a deal with the EU maintaining EEA-like levels of relationship, then come 1st April 2019, nigh-on 100% of the UK's export potential gets retrograded to WTO MFN (because the UK will lose the benefit of all the EU TAs, not just its trading relationship with the EU itself), and nigh-on 50% of that export potential (the share of UK exports to the EU) gets retrograded from a position of the best possible trading agreement which you could ever achieve (zero tariffs and barriers on anything howsoever, by being part of the EU) with the world's largest and richest trading bloc.

 

I don't think this needs explaining further, tbh (that's code for: don't tempt me to be more patronising )

Edited July 11, 2017 by L00b

[TheNugget]

1, It's already been pointed out that Cameron obtained an agreement in 2016 which guaranteed no future integration into the EU for the UK.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjy1unwsoHVAhWKLMAKHTMNCpsQFghBMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fopeneurope.org.uk%2Ftoday%2Fblog%2Fwhat-did-the-uk-achieve-in-its-eu-renegotiation%2F&usg=AFQjCNFyoadBquq82mdIvJsNhg-7EoGhMg Brexiteers apparent inability to take note of what is actually happening and continuing to believe the Ukip/Daily Mail type propaganda is one of the most exasperating things about this debate.

 

2, Totally agree, no argument whatsoever, the completely ridiculous monthly move of MEPs between Brussels and Strasbourg being the daftest example of this. 114 million Euro a year wasted for political cosmetics.

I'm no Europhile, lots of things need altering but we're not going to do it once we've left and it certainly wasn't worth leaving for.

Have you ever taken note of some of the waste our government is responsible for?

 

3, Haven't got a problem with it. If they are employed here then they are contributing to our economy and they need to make provision for their family. Providing it's administered correctly of course.

 

4, We can, we have full responsibility for all non EU people who enter the country which is over 50% of the total and we refused to sign up for the Schengen agreement so we retain passport control at our borders.

The fact that we are apparently useless at it isn't the fault of the EU and no doubt will remain the same after we've left.

 

5, Our laws are made by our parliament but as members of a trading organisation we accept rules which we incorporate in order to enjoy the benefits of membership.A number of EU rules are in fact beneficial to the public and may be scrapped to our detriment once we have left.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjl07DCuIHVAhVELMAKHSPoD8oQFggtMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit-15-eu-laws-we-will-miss-in-britain-a7103031.html&usg=AFQjCNHYbli-J3PN54KX61IzE7yyb9IcXw

Unless a particular law is unjust what is the problem with accepting it and going about your business?

Do you have a specific EU law which irks you to such a degree that you think going through all this uncertainty is worth it, and what guarantee do you have that that one will be scrapped when we leave?

 

1. But that is their aim and I don't want to be part of it.

4. No we can't - we may check their passports at arrivals but any citizen of the EU can reside here if they wish.

5. As I have already stated, I am for self-determinism. The laws aren't just about Trade, they are more much more far reaching than that.

[L00b]

1. But that is their aim and I don't want to be part of it.

4. No we can't - we may check their passports at arrivals but any citizen of the EU can reside here if they wish.

5. As I have already stated, I am for self-determinism. The laws aren't just about Trade, they are more much more far reaching than that.

And so can Brits, whether to retire in sunnier Mediterranean climes or to work in high tech German or Luxembourger glass towers...

 

...but tell me, have you heard of the Habitual Residence Test, by any chance?

[jeremyjh1]

Well overthrowing the Government happens every at least every 5 years so I can have my cake AND eat it!

 

My reasons:

1. I object ideologically to being part of a largely un-democratic union that wants further political integration. I don't see the point in fighting it so would prefer out.

2. I think the EU is too unwieldy and costs too much money, propagating a Eurocrat class stuffed with self interest.

3. I object to UK taxes being used to pay child related benefits for migrant workers who work here and their children live elsewhere. I don't see how that makes sense.

4. I would like us to be able to decide who enters the country and on what terms.

5. I'd like our laws to be made by our Parliament and not somewhere else. If someone has a good idea then by all means adopt best practice from abroad, but our laws should be made where we have the opportunity to vote directly for the law makers.

 

Those are the main ones that spring to mind.

I think the bit that a lot of people don't get is that I am willing to pay an economic price, if there is one, for that.

 

Correction:

 

The opportunity to vote out the incumbent government happens every 5 years or, well, maybe not depending on the PM. And, unless your vote goes to the party that eventually wins the majority of seats, then you can't guarantee to have your cake and eat it.

 

Don't mean to burst your bubble, but...... reality is a bitch

[TheNugget]

I'm just stating the obvious for the sake of time-saving: I'm not going to explain how and why membership of an exclusive trading club comes with strings attached, particularly as regards the freedom to negotiate one's own deals 'on the side' (since this practice effectively nullifies the negotiating strength that derives from the pooled economies).

That one is elementary: in the absence of a deal with the EU maintaining EEA-like levels of relationship, then come 1st April 2019, nigh-on 100% of the UK's export potential gets retrograded to WTO MFN (because the UK will lose the benefit of all the EU TAs, not just its trading relationship with the EU itself), and nigh-on 50% of that export potential (the share of UK exports to the EU) gets retrograded from a position of the best possible trading agreement which you could ever achieve (zero tariffs and barriers on anything howsoever, by being part of the EU) with the world's largest and richest trading bloc.

 

I don't think this needs explaining further, tbh (that's code for: don't tempt me to be more patronising )

 

Yes I understand what happens if we don't have a deal in place. So the message is clear, get a deal. Both parties are doing that right now. I don't see the problem, other than everyone being scared that we won't get a deal. Fear of the unknown mostly it seems.

[Carlinate]

Just remind me of the terms the EU doesn't have with the US again please?

 

---------- Post added 11-07-2017 at 15:02 ----------

 

 

 

Well, according to the Financial Times it's going to have one before the UK.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjCvIr7u4HVAhUBAcAKHTpDBzIQFghFMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Ff6be0ac8-2a73-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c%3Fmhq5j%3De2&usg=AFQjCNHt2r4V59OHv6VKe1yZhxWg1jlQbw

 

As the USA is currently in a protectionist mode under Trump, and the UK has a surplus in trade with the US ( although a trading deficit with the EU, and one in overall total trade ) then you can be sure any deal we obtain will not be entirely to our benefit.

[TheNugget]

And so can Brits, whether to retire in sunnier Mediterranean climes or to work in high tech German or Luxembourger glass towers...

 

...but tell me, have you heard of the Habitual Residence Test, by any chance?

 

Yes, what's your point?