I1L2T3 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Labours John Mcdonnell appears to be under the impression that a vote to stay in is a vote for EU reforms which will significantly improve the EU to one which will allow the things you say. The man is clearly deluded. No he's not actually. He's not a great fan of the EU just like Corbyn isn't. He's taking a pragmatic approach that we can push for reform in the EU slow lane. If such reform is possible it makes sense to explore the option. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 09:20 ---------- So now we've gone from "never" to "couple of decades". Myth busted. I still think it's a never but I'm making the point that even if we wanted to we couldn't, and have zero prospect of membership even in the medium term. Inconvenient I know but sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 No he's not actually. He's not a great fan of the EU just like Corbyn isn't. He's taking a pragmatic approach that we can push for reform in the EU slow lane. If such reform is possible it makes sense to explore the option. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 09:20 ---------- I still think it's a never but I'm making the point that even if we wanted to we couldn't, and have zero prospect of membership even in the medium term. Inconvenient I know but sorry So we're both guessing. Neither of us know. It's all conjecture. I honestly believe that we either leave or we go on a wild ride to full political and fiscal union. It's okay that you don't. I hope we can at least agree that there are no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 So we're both guessing. Neither of us know. It's all conjecture. I honestly believe that we either leave or we go on a wild ride to full political and fiscal union. It's okay that you don't. I hope we can at least agree that there are no guarantees. No I'm not guessing. The convergence criteria for the Euro makes it clear that there is no guesswork required. We are decades away from membership even if we wanted to join, which we don't. That means fiscal integration is off the agenda for a long time. And the absence of fiscal integration removes the need for closer political integration. None of this is guesswork. its fact. Longer term you are right we don't know what will happen for sure but right now, in the context of the referendum, concerns about close fiscal and political union need to take a back seat. The issues that need to be addressed are the ones that keep coming up: trade, immigration, movement of people, lack of democracy in the EU. That is what people are really (and correctly) concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutty27 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 No he's not actually. He's not a great fan of the EU just like Corbyn isn't. He's taking a pragmatic approach that we can push for reform in the EU slow lane. If such reform is possible it makes sense to explore the option. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 09:20 ---------- I still think it's a never but I'm making the point that even if we wanted to we couldn't, and have zero prospect of membership even in the medium term. Inconvenient I know but sorry It doesn't appear to have been possible for the past 60 years so voting to stay in just in case it becomes possible would be the actions of a lunatic, especially as this is going to be the last chance we get to get out in the foreseeable future. I would agree with them if a vote to stay was a vote for a detailed set of reforms that the majority are happy with and an exist in 5 years if those reforms don't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Longer term you are right we don't know what will happen for sure but right now, in the context of the referendum, concerns about close fiscal and political union need to take a back seat. The issues that need to be addressed are the ones that keep coming up: trade, immigration, movement of people, lack of democracy in the EU. That is what people are really (and correctly) concerned about. I disagree. If the destination is full union we should take this once in a generation opportunity to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamo Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 He's taking a pragmatic approach that we can push for reform in the EU slow lane. If such reform is possible it makes sense to explore the option. The biggest concerns for British people are immigration and the supremacy of the European court. These are not things that can be 'reformed' because these powers cannot be handed back without the EU abandoning the federal European super-state dream. There is zero prospect of the EU handing back these sort of powers and climbing back into it's original trade body box unless it is forced to do so by member states walking away from the federalisation. McDonnell isn't being pragmatic at all... he is simply grossly naive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 I disagree. If the destination is full union we should take this once in a generation opportunity to leave. But the destination is not full union. There is no evidence of that. The position has been clear since 2014 and has just been reinforced. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 10:03 ---------- The biggest concerns for British people are immigration and the supremacy of the European court. These are not things that can be 'reformed' because these powers cannot be handed back without the EU abandoning the federal European super-state dream. There is zero prospect of the EU handing back these sort of powers and climbing back into it's original trade body box unless it is forced to do so by member states walking away from the federalisation. McDonnell isn't being pragmatic at all... he is simply grossly naive. You seem to miss the point that in terms of immigration we are not part of Schengen and are opted out of asylum legislation too. The big immigration issue is non-EU immigration. That is what drives the numbers up. Leaving the EU wouldn't fix that and could even make the situation worse. You are also missing the point that we are no longer committed to ever closer union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 But the destination is not full union. There is no evidence of that. The position has been clear since 2014 and has just been reinforced. The destination has always been full union. That's how we it from a free trade agreement to a single currency. Have you read the 5 presidents' report. A few non-binding statements in the shadow of a looming referendum are nowhere near enough to convince me that it has suddenly changed. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 10:06 ---------- You are also missing the point that we are no longer committed to ever closer union. For now. Only a treaty would convince me that this has really changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 The destination has always been full union. That's how we it from a free trade agreement to a single currency. Have you read the 5 presidents' report. A few non-binding statements in the shadow of a looming referendum are nowhere near enough to convince me that it has suddenly changed. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 10:06 ---------- For now. Only a treaty would convince me that this has really changed. I think you could have argued up to 2014 that the destination was full union. I don't think you can seriously argue that any more. This was the formal agreement secured in 2014: The European council noted that the concept of ever-closer union allows for different paths of integration for different countries, allowing those that want to deepen integration to move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not want to deepen any further It is already done and dusted and has been for almost 2 years. I do accept your point about treaty change though. That would make the more paranoid of us more comfortable, but we know at present there is no time for treaty change before the referendum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamo Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 You seem to miss the point that in terms of immigration we are not part of Schengen and are opted out of asylum legislation too. The big immigration issue is non-EU immigration. That is what drives the numbers up. Leaving the EU wouldn't fix that and could even make the situation worse. You are also missing the point that we are no longer committed to ever closer union. I think you will find that when the government is forced to reveal the true number of EU citizens that have come to the uk, and the financial cost, it will be clear it isn't just migration from outside the EU that's of concern. We need to control our own borders and it is a false argument that we can't have that and trade freely. ---------- Post added 05-03-2016 at 10:39 ---------- I think you could have argued up to 2014 that the destination was full union. I don't think you can seriously argue that any more. This was the formal agreement secured in 2014: The European council noted that the concept of ever-closer union allows for different paths of integration for different countries, allowing those that want to deepen integration to move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not want to deepen any further It is already done and dusted and has been for almost 2 years. I do accept your point about treaty change though. That would make the more paranoid of us more comfortable, but we know at present there is no time for treaty change before the referendum If you ask anyone considering a vote to leave, then I guarantee that 'ever closer union' will be way down their list of concern. That is a concern made up by Cameron because he knew he couldn't negotiate a deal that would address real concerns. Your arguments will sway nobody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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