Student population to shrink dramatically in the future

[goldenfleece]

From this autumn, students will pay 'top-up' tuition fees of £3,000-a-year, compared to the current £1,175 rate. This is set to have a dramatic effect on student numbers over the coming years, once applications fall below the number of available places. Sheffield's applications are down by about five per cent, which while not falling below the number of available places, is set to cause a worrying downward spiral. Other Universities have seen applications fall by far higher rates and actually drop below the number of available places, so overall, over the next few years, University places will be cropped back to reflect the change in demand for higher education in the UK.

 

And of course, the political implications go much further than that, with costs likely to spiral upwards even more in the years to come. Whatever the Government says at the moment, you can bet your left ear students will be hit with even more costs in the forthcoming years.

 

University entrants from 2006 will mostly face debts at graduation in the range £20,000 to £30,000 (Barclays Bank projects the average debt at £33,000 in 2010), and a tax rate of 42%(income tax 22%, national insurance 11%, student debt repayment 9%), with pressure to save for their pensions. The Institute for Fiscal Studies projects that on average they will take 19 years to pay off their debts. There will not be enough well-paid graduate jobs for all of them. They will join the IPOD generation (Insecure,Pressured,Overtaxed,Debt-ridden).

 

Any thoughts on the future of University Education? The other growing problem is also the once great prowess and status of receiving a University Education has been completely eroded to nothing. 30 years ago, obtaining a degree from ANY University was a social achievement in any community, and afforded graduates a distinctly raised profile. These days, a graduate is simply yet another graduate. Gone also are the days when being a student was "the best 3 years of my life", non stop partying, etc, as it was all at the taxpayers expense. Now, its money worries and more debt, and every party must be budgeted. That framed degree certificate that once stood proud on the parental mantlepieces, now stands more chance of being stuck in the attic and forgotten about.

 

Although some people think University applications will only show a temporary fall, I believe the trend will continue until we have University applications and available places back at early 1980's levels, which something like 50% down from its current levels, a MASSIVE fall off. Perhaps in 10 years time, we wont be swamped with spare graduates any more, but actually have a DEMAND for them once again.

[Cyclone]

Don't some of those things seem a little contradictory. Numbers will fall drastically, but there won't be enough graduate jobs around?

 

And why are you predicting a 'spiral' of descent for Sheffields numbers based on a 5% fall this year?

I don't understand why falling student numbers will continue to increase prices, surely the opposite should apply?

 

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the top up fees will be means tested as they were previously?

The average debt figures have never seemed quite right to me. When I left uni they were saying that the average debt was 15k, I didn't know anyone with a debt that high.

[goldenfleece]

 

And why are you predicting a 'spiral' of descent for Sheffields numbers based on a 5% fall this year? I don't understand why falling student numbers will continue to increase prices, surely the opposite should apply?

 

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the top up fees will be means tested as they were previously?The average debt figures have never seemed quite right to me. When I left uni they were saying that the average debt was 15k, I didn't know anyone with a debt that high.

 

Universities are GREEDY, thats why, the market will become a cut throat industry with only the strongest surviving. Some will outprice themselves without a doubt, others MAY save themselves. However you look at it, its all bad news for future students. The fact is falling student numbers creates a knock on effect in popular cultural peer-group perception that education is no longer a serious option, as it will appear to lose its popularity and any "coolness" it once had. Education is simply a cultural phenomenon, once it loses its appeal, its days are numbered. Its easy to get a job in 2006 without a degree, compared to 25 years ago certainly, unless you want to be a Doctor or lawyer or biochemist, etc, you dont need a degree to make your way in life. The number of jobs seeking "graduates only" has fallen off on a massive scale.

 

Means testing is a false economy, as the thresholds can be altered by the Government at any time, and therefore have no real fixed value.

[Cyclone]

By greedy, I presume you mean that they will compete for students and the government money that comes with them.

This can only be a good thing for students, once demand falls below supply prices will be forced down or alternative means of attracting students will be increased.

Means testing seems perfectly valid to me. Fixing the boundaries would be foolish as the limits clearly need to change over time to take into account changes in the economy, average wages, etc...

[goldenfleece]

By greedy, I presume you mean that they will compete for students and the government money that comes with them.

This can only be a good thing for students, once demand falls below supply prices will be forced down or alternative means of attracting students will be increased.

Means testing seems perfectly valid to me. Fixing the boundaries would be foolish as the limits clearly need to change over time to take into account changes in the economy, average wages, etc...

 

Yes compete for students of course, like any night club competing for customers, BUT, lowering prices can have an ADVERSE effect. if you make yourself TOO cheap, it reduces the overall perception of any real value of the experience. AND in this case, if demand falls below supply it will be an easier option for any University to shrink itself according to the market forces. These places are huge rambling organizations that would benefit from a total restructure in most cases. If Universities were truly corporate business concerns like they are in the States, you have to restructure based on demand, you cant pull or create demand for a market that is intrinsically shrinking, at least not if there is a National trend on the downward side.

 

Higher Education is no longer on a pedestal of pride Nationally as it was in the 80's and before, it is now far too big in a country the size of the UK to be a realistic economic or socio-cultural benefit to the changing perceptions of modern Society.

 

This is an interesting academic analysis of related issues....

 

LINK

[Tony]

Interviewer: So tell me, what qualifies you for this position?

 

Interviewee: Well I've got a degree! *big smile*

 

Interviewer: You misunderstood, what qualifies you to do the job?

 

Interviewee: *looks puzzled* I just said, I have a degree... a first class one too! In Combined History and Economics! *nice grin*

 

Interviewer: So how do you feel that will help you in this sales position?

 

Interviewee: *remembers interview module at uni* Well, I have a well rounded high quality education in traditional subjects, and I'm sure I will be an asset to the business as I learn about the finer points of the job

 

Interviewer: Oh... so you want us to train you?

 

Interviewee: Well obviously that's what I would expect. Then I can become a valued member of the firm.

 

Interviewer: Do you appreciate that you will be on a lower salary whilst training?

 

Interviewee: Well I had hoped to be a in at the deep end straight away, but obviously I appreciate that for a short while I'll be getting up to speed.

 

Interviewer: OK, even though you have no direct sales experience we'll take a chance *looks at interviewee, fancying his chances* Come in at 4 AM tomorrow and we'll show you how to stack the shelves before we put you on the checkout.

[Twiglet]

Basing their assumptions on the Australian model, universities believe that we will experience a dip in applications this year (as we had a peak last year as those who would have chosen to defer did not), and then they should go back to normal. At the moment, I think our application rate is actually normal so far this year.

 

Tuition fees will not be reduced, it isn't a case of price and demand. I think all but around 6? (not sure of the exact number) universities this year are charging full whack, as they believe that charging anything else labels them as sub-standard.

[wendygs]

I think there are grounds for concern over the merit of having that once lauded University Degree and related certificate. I've just obtained free and for gratis someone's University of Sheffield certificate as a result of a house clearance. They left quite a lot of stuff behind and their beautifully framed certificate and graduation photograph. After all that hard work.

[Cyclone]

I don't think that universities will want to simply get smaller and have less students, rather than competing for the students there are.

The budget for each department depends on how many students they get, the amount of money they are given by the government is dependant on the students numbers as well. Apart from research (which requires some students from somewhere to be doing phd's) government money and the tuitition fee are the only source of income for a university, so they do everything they can to get as many students as possible.

 

Surely your comment about making them too cheap is inconsistent with the view that increasing tuition fees is a bad thing...

[sheff_minx]

The means testing system is already unfair. Other factors are not taken into account and for this reason friends of mine get £4000 loan, pay no fees, yet still get £50 a week from their dad - because their dad is a high earner yet because their parents are divorced and they live with their mum, his earnings are not taken into consideration...

 

Meanwhile I get less than £3000 loan, £1200 of which is tuition fees, and no handouts from my mum and dad, so I am therefore expected to live on £1500 a year... not possible when my annual rent is £2860!!! My work is now suffering because I have had to take on a job for 20hrs a week. :rant: