How far will Sheffield house prices drop?

[Cyclone 10]

that looks like a 3 month lag, not a 6 month one.

 

Yep, it does. I didn't say 6 though, I was just explaining why there was a lag.

The other main indices measure mortgage approvals instead of final sales, not quite as accurate, but several months further forward in the process.

[BertieBasset 10]

wouldn't it be interesting to overlay a lagged Land Registry curve on the Halifax and Nationwide ones...here's some homework for you... ;-)

 

I did say UP to 6 months.

 

Haliwide are based on mortgage approvals. It is not unknown for there to be a 5 month lag from getting a mortgage approval through buying the house up to the solicitors getting round to letting the land registry know.

 

Add on the fact that these are November figures when Haliwide will now be releasing December figures, and hey presto, you get up to 6 months.

[sham71 10]

is that true - buy a repo and you dont have to declare it?

 

 

 

you know less than my dog.

 

quote from the BBC article about the LR figures.....

 

'however, properties sold - usually for a discount price - following repossessions or transferred following divorce proceedings are excluded from the survey'

 

I won't expect an apology for your error as you are obviously an idiot and an obnoxious one at that.

[Dimitri 11 10]

is that true - buy a repo and you dont have to declare it?

 

you know less than my dog.

 

It is true that repos aren't included in the land registry figures:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/30/house-price-index-market-value

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=96579

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3132863.stm

 

With this and the lag the real national average yearly falls are probably 15-20% rather than 12.2%.

[saxondale 10]

It is true that repos aren't included in the land registry figures:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/30/house-price-index-market-value

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=96579

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3132863.stm

 

With this and the lag the real national average yearly falls are probably 15-20% rather than 12.2%.

 

 

 

right - a survey, sorry I didnt click through.

 

So what about the land registry itself? why exclude repos? what if by including repos it showed an overall rise in prices?

 

 

 

perhaps if Sham by name/ Shame by nature actually did some research for himself rather than cutting and pasting he might start to understand grown up chat.

[Dimitri 11 10]

right - a survey, sorry I didnt click through..

 

There are no surveys. One is a Guardian article all about LR not including repos in their stats. One is a BBC article that mentions LR not including repos in their stats. The other link is a big long argument on the HousePriceCrash website where basically guy ends up contacting LR 'cos he believes repos must be included. They get back to him confirming they're not included for 'commercial reasons' or something.

 

So what about the land registry itself? why exclude repos? what if by including repos it showed an overall rise in prices?

 

I don't think it matters a great deal why they exclude repos, just that they do. Repos generally fetch a far lower price than normal sales don't they? I don't think there would be an overall rise in prices, just the opposite in fact.

[saxondale 10]

 

I don't think it matters a great deal why they exclude repos, just that they do. Repos generally fetch a far lower price than normal sales don't they? I don't think there would be an overall rise in prices, just the opposite in fact.

 

 

 

I was been a bit ironic, but there could be an argument for the 14 to 16 year morgage holders been repo`d ........... that would skew the stats* as even in a fire sale the house will fetch double and more than they paid for it.

 

 

 

 

*someone has a signature about stats dont they?

[Cyclone 10]

I was been a bit ironic, but there could be an argument for the 14 to 16 year morgage holders been repo`d ........... that would skew the stats* as even in a fire sale the house will fetch double and more than they paid for it.

 

 

 

 

 

That wouldn't alter that stats at all, it's average sale price now that is being looked at. Change in value since it was purchased is completely irrelevant.

 

Are you going to apologise to Sham now?

[saxondale 10]

 

Are you going to apologise to Sham now?

 

 

what for - not reading a report? yeah right. my comment stands.

 

 

lag works two ways remember.

[sham71 10]

I'll live without an apology don't worry.

 

I only ever posted on here to warn people not to believe the hype about house prices only ever going up based on my experiences in the property market

 

One by one people have realised the truth (mainly due to it becoming mainstream thinking in the media - people don't seem to like to think for themselves and do their own research)

 

All we have left is one sad individual who doesnt really want to sell his house.

 

I'm happy in the knowledge that I could buy his house twice over for cash with what I have made from the property market in the last 15 years. Thats at the price he is asking. I could buy it 3 times over at its actual value.

 

My main new years resolution is to give this place a miss, something made all the easier by there only being one obnoxious fool left to argue with, so I'll leave with a few predictions:

 

1. House prices will fall another 15-20% in 2009 as unemployment rockets.

2. Prices will level out mid 2010 and then stagnate for a few years, not reaching 2007 peak levels until 2015 or later.

3. My family and I will buy a nice 4 bed detached house in S10/11 in 2010 or 2011 having enjoyed renting in S11 for a few years while prices tumbled.

4. Saxondale will not sell his house in 2009 without taking a significant 'haircut'

5. Foxhill will NOT be exempt from the price crash.

 

Happy New Year All.

[saxondale 10]

I'll live without an apology don't worry.

 

I only ever posted on here to warn people not to believe the hype about house prices only ever going up based on my experiences in the property market

 

One by one people have realised the truth (mainly due to it becoming mainstream thinking in the media - people don't seem to like to think for themselves and do their own research)

 

All we have left is one sad individual who doesnt really want to sell his house.

 

I'm happy in the knowledge that I could buy his house twice over for cash with what I have made from the property market in the last 15 years. Thats at the price he is asking. I could buy it 3 times over at its actual value.

 

My main new years resolution is to give this place a miss, something made all the easier by there only being one obnoxious fool left to argue with, so I'll leave with a few predictions:

 

1. House prices will fall another 15-20% in 2009 as unemployment rockets.

2. Prices will level out mid 2010 and then stagnate for a few years, not reaching 2007 peak levels until 2015 or later.

3. My family and I will buy a nice 4 bed detached house in S10/11 in 2010 or 2011 having enjoyed renting in S11 for a few years while prices tumbled.

4. Saxondale will not sell his house in 2009 without taking a significant 'haircut'

5. Foxhill will NOT be exempt from the price crash.

 

Happy New Year All.

 

 

ah bless, do you type with the other hand or just wait till you finish then post?

[Cyclone 10]

what for - not reading a report? yeah right. my comment stands.

No, for this

is that true - buy a repo and you dont have to declare it?

 

 

 

you know less than my dog.

 

You're dog isn't too hot on what's happening is it, I'd stop taking it's advice if I were you.

 

Lag does work both ways, and in 9 months time that might matter.