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Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

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2 hours ago, L00b said:

Why wanting to ‘simplify’ things? The world is complex, get used to it 😉

 

Ukraine became politically independent in the 90s on paper, when the USSR imploded. But it had had essentially pro-Russian governments ever since. In the 2000s the Ukrainian people wanted to gravitate westwards in terms of social-economic development, and had increasingly voted accordingly, but Yanukovich (Putin’s puppet) kept stalling.

 

The straw that broke the camel’s back, was Yanukovich suddenly and unexpectedly deciding to not sign a FTA with the EU in late 2013 (on Putin’s orders no doubt), which kickstarted the Maidan protests that eventually kicked him and his regime out in early 2014.

 

Russia did not ‘take over Crimea politically’. Russia invaded Crimea militarily, then annexed it (it was Ukrainian, it became Russian; that is what “annexation” means: it’s a landgrab). Then Russia purged it of many locals (primarily ethnic Tatars) and replaced them with Russians (205k estimate).
 

These Russian ‘transplants’ have been getting a little worried since March, and there are now a ton of anecdotal -but verified- instances of Russian cadres (FSB, administration, etc.) leaving Sevastopol on the quiet in the dead of night, back to Russia 😈

This beggars the question  why is the west getting involved vocally and with supplies when it stayed quiet over Crimea ?

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7 hours ago, L00b said:

As posted in reply to you, on 06 April (#2087) and 28 April (#2269).

Let's see.

 

Post #2087

 

"The solution, pursued since the first day of the war, is to shore up Ukraine as much and best we can, for however long Ukraine is willing to fight for its independence and can continue to do so, whilst strangling Russia’s economy to hinder its capacity to finance this military adventure."

 

Post  #2269

"Simple enough, we keep doing what we’re doing now."

 

So here we are.

 

If we believe the MSM "narrative", Ukraine is winning the war, against Russia, who is led by Putin, a mad, sick, cancer ridden shell of a man. On the other hand he's described a little more positively by those who met him before the Ukraine Invasion.


But the reality is Russia is destroying the Ukraine, not the other way around, has a stranglehold on the country, and It could go on for years, say the "experts".

 

Putin now controls Ukraine's ports, its largest nuclear power plant, and the Oil and gas that some NATO countries refuse to give up.

 

Without the West taking the fight to Putin, Ukraine's future is foregone.

 

The ONLY solution is a cease fire and a diplomatic settlement, enforced if necessary, by the Western alliance and the globalists at the U.N.

 

And, as usual, Sooner rather than later. Stop the slaughter of innocent Ukranians.

 

The West can deal later with the Russian Bear, and the Asian version, China, when they have figured out a pragmatic way to deal with them. Right now they have no plan.

 

And respectfully neither do you :)

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1 hour ago, harvey19 said:

This beggars the question  why is the west getting involved vocally and with supplies when it stayed quiet over Crimea ?

Because the West has been measuring the cost of not “getting involved vocally and with supplies in 2014” since 24 February 2022.

 

People eventually recognising the errors of their ways and correcting them.
 

What an absurd notion, eh? 😉

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18 minutes ago, trastrick said:

Let's see.

 

Post #2087

 

"The solution, pursued since the first day of the war, is to shore up Ukraine as much and best we can, for however long Ukraine is willing to fight for its independence and can continue to do so, whilst strangling Russia’s economy to hinder its capacity to finance this military adventure."

 

Post  #2269

"Simple enough, we keep doing what we’re doing now."

 

So here we are.

 

If we believe the MSM "narrative", Ukraine is winning the war, against Russia, who is led by Putin, a mad, sick, cancer ridden shell of a man. On the other hand he's described a little more positively by those who met him before the Ukraine Invasion.


But the reality is Russia is destroying the Ukraine, not the other way around, has a stranglehold on the country, and It could go on for years, say the "experts".

 

Putin now controls Ukraine's ports, its largest nuclear power plant, and the Oil and gas that some NATO countries refuse to give up.

 

Without the West taking the fight to Putin, Ukraine's future is foregone.

 

The ONLY solution is a cease fire and a diplomatic settlement, enforced if necessary, by the Western alliance and the globalists at the U.N.

 

And, as usual, Sooner rather than later. Stop the slaughter of innocent Ukranians.

 

The West can deal later with the Russian Bear, and the Asian version, China, when they have figured out a pragmatic way to deal with them. Right now they have no plan.

 

And respectfully neither do you :)

Respectfully, you don’t know what you’re talking about, or you’re being disingenuous.

 

Putin started with an all-country invasion 3 months ago.

 

3 months later, Putin is now down to trying to grab the Donbas alone.

 

And still failing abysmally, even though he’s been having a go at that one for the last 5 years.

 

Russia’s grasp of the DNR is fading fast. It has a “stranglehold” on the LNR. That’s it.


Maybe you should look at a map of Ukraine.

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7 hours ago, L00b said:

Respectfully, you don’t know what you’re talking about, or you’re being disingenuous.

 

Putin started with an all-country invasion 3 months ago.

 

3 months later, Putin is now down to trying to grab the Donbas alone.

 

And still failing abysmally, even though he’s been having a go at that one for the last 5 years.

 

Russia’s grasp of the DNR is fading fast. It has a “stranglehold” on the LNR. That’s it.


Maybe you should look at a map of Ukraine.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/05/ukraine-already-winning-victory-without-risking-nuclear-war

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Putin banging on about NATO is a red herring. He is only really interested in expanding Mother Russia, preferably back to its post 1945 borders.... He is on record as saying the breakup of the USSR was, in his view, a disaster.
He wants to leave a Peter The Great type legacy.
He is a nasty piece of work and if his massive error invading Ukraine precipitates his downfall that will be a significant benefit to the world in general and Europe in particular.

If we are getting hurt be sanctions I can only say we're paying a much smaller price than Ukraine as they fight our battle for us, so we shouldn't moan about it.

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It would be good to know how sanctions are affecting Russia?  

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, hauxwell said:

It would be good to know how sanctions are affecting Russia?  

I met a Russian trademark attorney at an event in Brussels last Friday.

 

She didn’t smile much.

 

And for someone there to tout business -as we all were- she wasn’t very keen to chat either (and I mean that in a “talking shop” sense: I was diplomatic enough to not mention Ukraine and associated hardship one way/the other once, not even allude to it…didn’t even ask how she got from St Petersburg to Brussels for the event 😆).

 

Anecdotal and a rather oblique reply to your question…but from seeing everything I’ve seen here and there in articles and social media (Russian Telegram posts), it was a form of vindication of the opinion I’ve formed, that some Russians -maybe lots- are deeply unhappy in their daily lives atm.

Edited by L00b

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, makapaka said:

If this ends up (as it will) with with Russia owning more of Ukraine than Crimea (the comfey couch pacifists already ceded that "minor incursion" in 2014) this will not only have been a failure for Ukraine and the West, it will be a victory for Russia.

 

And the costs of this war in blood, treasure and destruction, as well as the costs to Western and World economies will have to be seriously addressed.

 

My business success was believing in my product and sincerely believing it would solve my clients problem, combined with a good track record. There's a market for that.

 

So my personal take is : would I send my kids, or volunteer myself,  to fight in the Ukraine against the totalitarian?

 

Given that I sincerely believe that this war, without the committment of the Western powers to military involvement, is unwinnable, I would say no. Jingoism from the West, NATO, EU, Biden, Johnson, Macron et al., and half hearted "sanctions' that they cannot even today agree on, is just not enough.

 

I see it as a proxy war between politicians with the poor Ukrainians as their cannon fodder. If it goes on for as long as the "experts" say it will, there'll be nothing left of the Ukraine to defend.

 

There's no real Leadership in the West at this time to articulate what's at stake, the price they are willing to pay, and how victory can be achieved.

 

It just will end up like another Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya,  Syria and Afghanistan. and the inevitable "time to move on".

 

This from a guy who lost family members in WW2 and grew up preparing to go to the next war that was we, were told, "unavoidable". I joined the army cadets at 14 to learn all I could about war, so I'd have a better than average chance of surviving.

 

Count me out of this one.

 

Edited by trastrick

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On 19/05/2022 at 15:18, trastrick said:

The ONLY solution is a cease fire and a diplomatic settlement, enforced if necessary, by the Western alliance and the globalists at the U.N.

Could the solution be that the Russian people realise that they are being fed a false narrative and as life gets tougher the unease in the country gets greater giving rise to factions who try to remove Putin.

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1 hour ago, Thorpist said:

Could the solution be that the Russian people realise that they are being fed a false narrative and as life gets tougher the unease in the country gets greater giving rise to factions who try to remove Putin.

Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia monthly 1999-2022

In April 2022, over 80 percent of Russians approved of activities of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. The popularity level saw an increase during the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started at the end of February 2022.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/

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2 hours ago, trastrick said:

 

 

Count me out of this one.

 

No one is trying to draft you. 

 

Count me out as well 😉

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