Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[trastrick 866]

Just now, Padders said:

1000s upon 1000s of innocent lives.

But not in your Western safe backyard, of course.

 

Well, you'd better hope they win.

[Padders 2,870]

15 minutes ago, trastrick said:

But not in your Western safe backyard, of course.

 

Well, you'd better hope they win.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that people are dying in the Western World because of the war...

Inflation, energy bills, shortage of essential items, people unable to afford proper food...

Starvation amongst the poor could be come common place.

[trastrick 866]

2 hours ago, whiteowl said:

Latvia has over 100 miles of border with Russia and joined NATO in 2004.

 

You also understand that the head of the EU has nothing to do with NATO membership?

 

Putin decided to act in the case of Ukraine.

 

Maybe he decided to draw a line ?

 

Who knows?

 

As for NATO membership, that is now a moot point.

 

I see Zelenky has said he will not join NATO. He's signed an apllication for EU membership though.

 

Maybe that's a bargaining tool for future diplomatic settlement?

8 minutes ago, Padders said:

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that people are dying in the Western World because of the war...

Inflation, energy bills, shortage of essential items, people unable to afford proper food...

Starvation amongst the poor could be come common place.

Sorry!

 

Misunderstood your brief one liner.

 

I agree all the World is suffering from the fall out of this mess.

 

(Except the politicians, and their arms merchants of death, as usual)

[RJRB 688]

44 minutes ago, trastrick said:

 

 

The problem is the complacent West has no appetite has no longer any appetite to go to war.

 

Maybe if their internet was down for a week,

 

Biden has made that perfectly clear. And Totalitarians Putin and Xi listened.

 

So it's the old. "Let george do it, I can't be arsed. What's on't telly?"

 

So just who is going to make Putin pay the price you demand?

I do not see that as a problem.

Populations in general have no appetites for war but they are the casualties when their leaders use them to further their ambitions.

The options are escalation which doesn’t bear thinking about or a constant and long running  battle along existing or new borders in Eastern Europe.

Finland has long maintained it’s military strength and conscription as a result of its disputes with Russia and will no doubt form another bulwark against their ambitions.

 

[harvey19 541]

The main aim of war is to break your enemies will to resist.

 

 

[trastrick 866]

39 minutes ago, RJRB said:

The options are escalation which doesn’t bear thinking about or a constant and long running  battle along existing or new borders in Eastern Europe.

I think you miss the third option. A negotiated settlement.

 

Escalation is a non starter. although, as the Western "narrative" that Ukaraine is winning and Putin is just a madman who's screwing himself, is failing, that could be serious problem.

 

 There's an increasing desperation of politicians, who pushed this strategy to never compromise, to save face, Who knows wahat lengths they will go to?

 

A long war for the long suffering Ukranian people, will only result in more futile death and destruction, unless they can actually win a war with Russia. The odds for that are slim, despite the jingoism from some quarters.

 

I believe that all parties will eventually come to terms with a diplomatic solution. 

 

And as the bodies pile up, sooner is always better than later.

 

My call is Long Live The Ukrainian PEOPLE!

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by trastrick

[Jim117 72]

7 minutes ago, trastrick said:

I think you miss the third option. A negotiated settlement.

 

Escalation is a non starter. although, as the Western "narrative" that Ukaraine is winning and Putin is just a madman who's screwing himself, is failing, that could be serious problem.

 

 There's an increasing desperation of politicians, who pushed this strategy to never compromise, to save face, Who knows wahat lengths they will go to?

 

A long war for the long suffering Ukranian people, will only result in more futile death and destruction, unless they can actually win a war with Russia. The odds for that are slim, despite the jingoism from some quarters.

 

I believe that all parties will eventually come to terms with a diplomatic solution. 

 

And as the bodies pile up, sooner is always better than later.

 

My call is Long Live The Ukrainian PEOPLE!

 

 

I don’t believe the odds of a Ukrainian victory are as slim as you believe. As long as Ukraine has the manpower, supplies and will to fight that is. Russia on the other hand has dwindling equipment and no resupply outside its own country. It relies on advanced electronic components imported from abroad for its weapon systems. These imports are tightly restricted. This embargo is likely to be extended to third party countries used as a loophole to import dual use components to Russia. So to be blunt, Ukraine gets access to the advanced western toy box and Russia gets jack- - - -.  Negotiations? Well it would be great but for the fact that Putin has painted himself into a corner there and Zelensky refuses to cede ground and why should he? I think you are correct in the opinion that the west should have done more back when Crimea was first invaded as yes indeed that was seen as an easy reward for Russian aggression. That was on Obama’s watch though and I always considered him almost as lousy a president as Trump on the global stage.

[RJRB 688]

2 hours ago, trastrick said:

I think you miss the third option. A negotiated settlement.

 

Escalation is a non starter. although, as the Western "narrative" that Ukaraine is winning and Putin is just a madman who's screwing himself, is failing, that could be serious problem.

 

 There's an increasing desperation of politicians, who pushed this strategy to never compromise, to save face, Who knows wahat lengths they will go to?

 

A long war for the long suffering Ukranian people, will only result in more futile death and destruction, unless they can actually win a war with Russia. The odds for that are slim, despite the jingoism from some quarters.

 

I believe that all parties will eventually come to terms with a diplomatic solution. 

 

And as the bodies pile up, sooner is always better than later.

 

My call is Long Live The Ukrainian PEOPLE!

 

 

I am not missing the third option of a negotiated settlement .

Ultimately that is how all conflicts must be resolved,sometimes for a matter of months  or hopefully for a much longer period.

Unfortunately as we well know,once an armed conflict has started,negotiations are at the end of the process as one of the parties gains a definite upper hand and has substantially achieved its objectives.

Negotiations for the other party require a face saving solution.

I see no sign of this being achieved in the short term but I wish that it would.

[trastrick 866]

2 hours ago, Jim117 said:

I don’t believe the odds of a Ukrainian victory are as slim as you believe. As long as Ukraine has the manpower, supplies and will to fight that is. Russia on the other hand has dwindling equipment and no resupply outside its own country. It relies on advanced electronic components imported from abroad for its weapon systems. These imports are tightly restricted. This embargo is likely to be extended to third party countries used as a loophole to import dual use components to Russia. So to be blunt, Ukraine gets access to the advanced western toy box and Russia gets jack- - - -.  Negotiations? Well it would be great but for the fact that Putin has painted himself into a corner there and Zelensky refuses to cede ground and why should he? I think you are correct in the opinion that the west should have done more back when Crimea was first invaded as yes indeed that was seen as an easy reward for Russian aggression. That was on Obama’s watch though and I always considered him almost as lousy a president as Trump on the global stage.

We differ on that assessment, but I hope you're right.

 

 I believe this somewhat limted war is all about how much territory will each ontrol when the settlement nogotiations inevitably begin.  Bargaining chips.

[Guest makapaka]

Well they want to let Finland join  nato - who border on Russia just like Ukraine.

 

what could possibly go wrong?

[Padders 2,870]

1 minute ago, makapaka said:

Well they want to let Finland join  nato - who border on Russia just like Ukraine.

 

what could possibly go wrong?

And Sweden...

Mr. Putin has dropped himself right in the manure........

[Guest makapaka]

7 minutes ago, Padders said:

And Sweden...

Mr. Putin has dropped himself right in the manure........

I think it’s definitely the other way around.