Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[L00b 441]

22 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

Had a very enjoyable holiday in Luxembourg several years ago.

I recall we went up in a cable car and also visited an area where there were lots of rocks with narrow gaps to squeeze through.

That would be the Müllerthal, I think. Also known as ‘Little Switzerland’.

 

Speaking of which, off to hit the bars in town, so see you later beautiful people. Behave 😉

Edited April 29, 2022 by L00b

[Annie Bynnol 612]

21 minutes ago, trastrick said:

Nope!

 

What you have here is escalation.

 

It did have a beginning, you know!

 

It was the Ukraine who joined the European Union, and sought membership in the Mitlitary Allince with Germany and the U.S.

 

But Ukraine is in the backyard of Russia, the Bear, run by a Dictatorial Totalitarian.

 

Some see that as provoking the Bear.

 

...

Your 'escalation' argument is based on your statement that it was "...Ukraine who joined the European Union...".

You are factually wrong and worse you are helping Putin's cause bidding by blaming the victim.

 

The Ukraine is not a member of the EU.

24 February 2022 Russia invades Ukraine.

28 February 2022  Zelenskyy requested that Ukraine join the EU. 

[Guest makapaka]

2 hours ago, L00b said:

Ah, I think I see the nuance.

 

Give a couple $ millions’ worth of band aids and helmets to say we’ve “done something”, but not enough to allow Ukraine to keep Russian forces at bay, so the war comes to a close sooner.
 

Have I got that right?

No you haven’t.  That’s the other extreme entirely.

 

 

[Jim117 72]

6 hours ago, crazyhorse said:

I don't understand this Russian fear of invasion from the West.

What has Russia to offer to the West anyway, that is worth invading for?

A massive drink problem.

A suicide rate 3 times ours.

A declining population with a birth rate well below replacement rate...resulting in one of the world's most elderly populations.

An resource-cursed economy overdependent on gas and oil...that the World needs to move away from...

Millions of square miles of cold, remote, uninhabited wilderness...

No justice and a corrupt ruling elite quite happy to remove you personally to remove their problem.

 

I find it really revealing that whenever the "heroic" Russian army captures any Ukrainian territory...the second thing they do (after doing what they want with the local women) is to strip the place of anything of value like locusts...booze, laptops, domestic appliances, vehicles.

Some Ukrainian guy was on the TV the other day saying that they had stolen his (GPS tracked) machinery and shipped it back to Russia.

 

Either soldier's pay must be peanuts (or stolen by their officers) or life must be pretty crap in Russia for them to be doing this en-masse.

Although they could simply be imitating their masters...a fish rots from the head after all.

 

They are nothing more than an undisciplined rabble...the same way medieval armies lost battles because they stopped to pillage their enemies baggage train.

 

I think Putin is probably happy with them doing this...it keeps the mob off his back for a few more months.

Having stolen all their money with his chums...he can no longer offer the Russian people any increase to their standard of living...except via the route of conquest and pillage.

Millions of Russians will never achieve that Western Dream and they know it.

 

Let's reinforce our borders, keep supplying the arms to Ukraine, keep the sanctions up, start sanctioning his allies, build nuclear plants, turn off our lights, lower the heating and contain them until the guy is overthrown.

Autocracies never last...democracies will always outlast them.

Absolutely bang on post 👍

[butlers 259]

And a hefty brain drain of the best who would prefer the  western life on top.

 

[butlers 259]

 

[Guest makapaka]

8 hours ago, crazyhorse said:

I don't understand this Russian fear of invasion from the West.

What has Russia to offer to the West anyway, that is worth invading for?

A massive drink problem.

A suicide rate 3 times ours.

A declining population with a birth rate well below replacement rate...resulting in one of the world's most elderly populations.

An resource-cursed economy overdependent on gas and oil...that the World needs to move away from...

Millions of square miles of cold, remote, uninhabited wilderness...

No justice and a corrupt ruling elite quite happy to remove you personally to remove their problem.

 

I find it really revealing that whenever the "heroic" Russian army captures any Ukrainian territory...the second thing they do (after doing what they want with the local women) is to strip the place of anything of value like locusts...booze, laptops, domestic appliances, vehicles.

Some Ukrainian guy was on the TV the other day saying that they had stolen his (GPS tracked) machinery and shipped it back to Russia.

 

Either soldier's pay must be peanuts (or stolen by their officers) or life must be pretty crap in Russia for them to be doing this en-masse.

Although they could simply be imitating their masters...a fish rots from the head after all.

 

They are nothing more than an undisciplined rabble...the same way medieval armies lost battles because they stopped to pillage their enemies baggage train.

 

I think Putin is probably happy with them doing this...it keeps the mob off his back for a few more months.

Having stolen all their money with his chums...he can no longer offer the Russian people any increase to their standard of living...except via the route of conquest and pillage.

Millions of Russians will never achieve that Western Dream and they know it.

 

Let's reinforce our borders, keep supplying the arms to Ukraine, keep the sanctions up, start sanctioning his allies, build nuclear plants, turn off our lights, lower the heating and contain them until the guy is overthrown.

Autocracies never last...democracies will always outlast them.

I don’t think they’re fearful of invasion. I think they’re in fear of having nuclear weapons parked on their borders. That might sound irrational- but we have a nuclear deterrent so we’re obviously also concerned.

 

i agree with some of what you say and I’m certainly no sympathiser - but we had Russia upto east Germany and kicked back - and we’ve got nato upto (potentially) Ukraine and they’ve kicked back.

 

diplomacy is the solution to all of this - it’s crazy that we can end mankind over territory in the modern age.

 

 

 

Why did 12 countries join nato in the last 20 years?

[Jim117 72]

8 hours ago, makapaka said:

I don’t think they’re fearful of invasion. I think they’re in fear of having nuclear weapons parked on their borders. That might sound irrational- but we have a nuclear deterrent so we’re obviously also concerned.

 

i agree with some of what you say and I’m certainly no sympathiser - but we had Russia upto east Germany and kicked back - and we’ve got nato upto (potentially) Ukraine and they’ve kicked back.

 

diplomacy is the solution to all of this - it’s crazy that we can end mankind over territory in the modern age.

 

 

 

Why did 12 countries join nato in the last 20 years?

I agree, the situation is definitely crazy. The problem is how to use diplomacy with an obsessed man who has engineered an entire country to be answerable to him alone. As for Nato, it doesn’t look like the west is expanding east. Rather the east has moved west due to collective memories of the Soviet workers utopia and the dysfunction and oppression it brought.

[trastrick 866]

22 hours ago, Annie Bynnol said:

Your 'escalation' argument is based on your statement that it was "...Ukraine who joined the European Union...".

You are factually wrong and worse you are helping Putin's cause bidding by blaming the victim.

 

The Ukraine is not a member of the EU.

24 February 2022 Russia invades Ukraine.

28 February 2022  Zelenskyy requested that Ukraine join the EU. 

Correct.

 

In February they signed the application to join.  But they have to be formally approved by the full body EU at the June meeting.

 

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Euronews on Sunday that Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in" the European Union". - NPR

 

They are actually a member of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) a foreign relations instrument of the European Union (EU) which seeks to tie those countries to the east and south of the European territory of the EU to the Union.

 

Thanks for pointing that out.

 

Biut it doesn't change the point of my post.

 

 

[trastrick 866]

Here's the deal. (he puts on his Management Consultant hat.:)

 

Man made problems ALWAYS have a man made solution.

 

Ideally, with some foresight, and common sense they can be avoided. But like when Aunty's antique vase is knocked over and lies in pieces on the floor, the blame, if any, should be left for later. The point is if and how it can be put back together.

 

There's only one sure way this problem can be ended, short of WW3.

 

(WW3 could see Russia, China, the Middle East, with possible support or at least neutrality from India, Africa, South America, on one side, with the U.S. Europe and Australia on the other)

This is a non starter.

 

Another option is to arm the the Ukrainians to the teeth and hope they can push Russia out of all of Ukraine. This is highly unlikely because Russia will not give up Crimea, or the claim to the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, where most see themslves as Russians.

 

(See "Locals in Ukraine breakaway regions recount short-lived joy, hope".

"Residents of Ukraine’s breakaway regions recount their joy over Russia’s recognition of their independence"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/residents-of-ukraines-breakaways-recount-short-lived-joy-hope)

Another non starter.

 

I believe that both sides realize, as the body count, destruction and atrocities of war pile up without end, that an eventual negotiated settlement is the only way out. I also believe that the current war is the historically normal strategy, in disputed territory, for the beligerents to gain and control as much territory as they can before that inevitable day comes to pass.

 

Possession and control is a powerful negotiating tool when it comes to a final settlement.

 

It needs the International Community to support the negotiaon process. But the Negotiators, need to be credible, rational, and open to both sides of the issue.

 

The U.S. and Britain have eliminated themselves from any credibilty as "Peace Negotiators", by their obvious armed support for one party and their somewhat childish and impotent name calling, of the other, which makes it personal, political EGO vs EGO. The West is seen as a beligerent, which it obviously is.

 

Cooler heads, Turkey, and now the U.N. are speaking to both sides in the early stages of peace talks, and there is the matter of Russian Oil and Gas which NATO don't want to give up, so there is maybe some additional pragmatic leverage to bring them on board, too.

 

It will happen eventually, so I'm in favor of ramping up the negotiations to the highest priority for the world to end the futile slaughter of the Ukarinian people. Cities can be rebuilt, but you can't bring back the dead!

As I have been posting here, it is already too late, and every day it bis getting worse.

 

Truth is we share this world with all kinds of people who don't see the West, as model world citizens, and unless we wage an all out world war against them to show them our "moral supremity". We will have to co-exist with them.

 

Co-existence means trade and cultural exchanges that are more effective in changing hearts and minds, than hurling names, and bombs at each other.

 

I'm an optimist by nature, and I believe totalitarianism is slowly but surely on the way out, and the more the younger people are allowed to see the stark differences freedom makes in Democracy, I believe they'll eventually choose freedom. But it will take strong and consistent Leadership from the Western democracies, which currently is in short supply.

 

Now take it easy out there, It's only an opinion posted on an inconsequential Northern town forum.  

[kidley 48]

r Boychenko wrote in a message on Telegram: "Within two years, the Nazis killed 10,000 civilians in Mariupol. The Russian occupiers killed more than 20,000 residents of Mariupol within two months. More than 40,000 people were forcibly deported.

"This is one of the worst genocides against civilians in modern history. The Russian army is purposefully and ruthlessly destroying our city and its inhabitants."

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1603456/ukraine-live-russia-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelensky-uk-attack-weapons-solovyov?fbclid=IwAR3wBmPpij9ogpXlO5siwmggMbFe10HCV6Ge2xeBZYgk59_T9MgqRImLh6U

 

putin must be stopped by any means or the world will die

[cgksheff 44]

An opinion piece by Dominic Lawson.

I don’t necessarily agree with all of this, but it is well worth reading as food for thought.

“Moscow's claims of what it might do to the UK, in retaliation for our support of Ukraine's fight against the Russian invader, get more blood-curdling by the day.

Last week one of Russian state TV's most popular programmes showed a map of Europe, and in how short a time various cities could, allegedly, be demolished by Moscow's hypersonic nuclear missile, Sarmat, when fired from the western-most Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Alexei Zhuravlev exclaimed: 'One Sarmat and that's it — the British Isles are no more.' Another angry presenter on the programme boasted it would take one of these missiles '202 seconds to hit London' from Kaliningrad. In fact, there is no missile launch site in Kaliningrad, or anywhere near it. And last week the Pentagon's press secretary, John Kirby, said that the earlier test launch of Sarmat 'was not deemed to be a threat to the United States or its allies'.

Make of that what you will; but it seemed that the Pentagon, not known for its relaxed attitude to Russian military capabilities, was saying that Moscow's latest threat was empty (while terrifying). Indeed, the performance of the Russian military to date, in its invasion of Ukraine, has been startling only in its primitiveness.

The same Russian state TV had claimed, just before the invasion, that Kyiv would fall 'within 11 minutes'. This, or something like it, may have been what President Vladimir Putin himself believed, having been promised that by his military commanders.

That is what happens in a country where deception is the governing principle of communication, from top to bottom. Flattering fantasies come to be believed, and the truth is never acceptable: it would be more than someone's job is worth to tell it.

This sort of thing is not unknown in the West — British Prime Ministers and American Presidents are frequently told what their advisers think they want to hear. But ours are societies with a querulously independent press and a firm tradition of legal protection for the rights of the individual against the state. Russia has never had this.

As a result, its leaders can get away with any lie, however outrageous, in part because of the undoubtedly intense patriotism of the typical Russian, who equates this with faith in the ruler — and always has.

Among the more risible such lies recently propagated on Russian state television was the claim, just before the invasion of Ukraine (you know, the invasion which in February Putin repeatedly told visiting Western leaders would never happen), that the British Royal Family had been pushing the idea of 'a war with Ukraine', in order to deflect attention from the travails of Prince Andrew — and that this somehow determined the behaviour of the British government.

When telling the Russian people this, Dmitry Kiselyov, known as 'Putin's mouthpiece', almost certainly didn't believe it himself. But that is the point. As the former Moscow bureau chief of the Financial Times, Charles Clover, explained some years ago: 'Putin has correctly surmised that lies unite rather than divide Russia's political class. The greater and more obvious the lie, the more his subjects demonstrate their loyalty by accepting it, and the more they participate in the great sacral mystery of Kremlin power.'

The most grotesque lies are as much designed to demonise the Kremlin's enemies, as to boost the mystical power of the country's ruler. Thus the Ukrainian government of President Volodymyr Zelensky has been described — again on Russian state television — as one comprising (variously), Nazis, drug addicts, Satan-worshippers, and Masonic sodomites.

This approach is not just that of attention-seeking TV presenters. Major General Igor Konashenkov, the chief spokesman for the Russian military, in one of his recent briefings, insisted that the Ukrainians had been supplied by the U.S. military with a troupe of migratory birds trained to fly to Russia, where our feathered friends would drop 'bioweapons'.

This is a distant echo of Operation Infektion, the KGB disinformation campaign to propagate the idea that the CIA created the AIDS virus as part of a biological weapons project. It was designed to stir up popular anger at U.S. military bases during the cold war, portrayed by the KGB as the cause of AIDS outbreaks in local populations.

The monstrous lie was successfully spread across the world by the KGB, and may well have contributed to the refusal of the Moscow-trained South African President Thabo Mbeki to accept the true cause of the virus that was killing millions of his countrymen. The consequence was appalling.

It is obviously significant that Putin was a KGB officer. As the émigré Russian novelist Vladimir Sorokin wrote at the outset of the Ukraine invasion, described by the Kremlin as 'a special operation': 'For Putin, life itself has always been a special operation. From the black order of the KGB, he learned not only contempt for 'normal people', but also its main principle: not a single word of truth.'

But it would be wrong to see the culture of 'not a single word of truth' as peculiar to the KGB, or as a legacy of the period of Communist rule. It goes much deeper and further back than that.

It is obviously significant that Putin was a KGB officer. As the émigré Russian novelist Vladimir Sorokin wrote at the outset of the Ukraine invasion, described by the Kremlin as 'a special operation': 'For Putin, life itself has always been a special operation'

It is obviously significant that Putin was a KGB officer. As the émigré Russian novelist Vladimir Sorokin wrote at the outset of the Ukraine invasion, described by the Kremlin as 'a special operation': 'For Putin, life itself has always been a special operation'

One of the most remarkable books on the subject was Astolphe de Custine's Letters From Russia. This was the result of a stay in this vast country by that French aristocrat in 1839.

De Custine went there as a sympathiser with the idea of a nation under the firm rule of a Tsar: not surprisingly, since both his father and grandfather had been guillotined in the wake of the French Revolution. Yet he discovered, to his shock, what the effects were of Tsarist autocratic rule on the character of the Russian people.

De Custine encountered a liberal Russian prince, who informed him: 'It has led to a degeneration of language in Russia to the point where speech is now considered merely a trap: our government feeds on lies, because truth frightens the tyrant as it does the slave.'

And de Custine himself concluded, at the end of his journey: 'Russians of every class conspire together with wonderful mutual understanding to ensure the triumph of duplicity in their country. They have a dexterity in lying and a natural talent for falsehood, the success of which repels my sincerity as much as it strikes terror in my heart.' He returned to France a convert to the merits of constitutional government.

Perhaps the best recent book touching on this phenomenon is Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia To Confront The West, published in 2018. The author, Keir Giles, worked in Moscow during the 1990s, and is now a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme.

Giles observed: 'The English word 'lie' does not convey the wide range of modalities of Russian deception . . . When reviewing an early draft of this book, a Russian academic suggested avoiding the word 'lie' altogether, as its emotive nature in English was not appropriate for describing a shared conspiracy in avoiding the truth as a survival mechanism.'

I gained some sense of this when, in the 1970s, my paternal grandfather's first cousin Lev visited the UK for a scientific conference: he was a very senior figure at what was then Leningrad University, and was able to see his British relatives without a KGB minder. Lev was astounded to observe the chaos of the 'winter of discontent' under the then Labour government.

His astonishment was because he had read about bodies going unburied, and so on, in Pravda, then the official newspaper of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union — and had therefore assumed it was not true. But this unexpected discovery did not alter his profound cynicism about the deceitfulness of the rulers of his country.

Few have more cause for such absolute lack of faith in the Kremlin's word than the Ukrainian people and their government. For this reason, I cannot imagine the war being concluded soon, or ever, with a formal agreement between the two sides. Kyiv knows better than to take Putin's word for anything, including the time of day. The lies will never stop.”