Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[geared 305]

1 minute ago, makapaka said:

What was the ceaseless diplomacy undertaken - I haven’t seen any 

The French were quite involved before the invasion and the Turkish have been trying to position themselves as the go-between.

 

Obviously you can't expect much from our own PM as we're pretty staunchly anti-Russia right now.

[Guest makapaka]

2 hours ago, L00b said:

is, equally, western democracies’ sole and absolute right to lend them a hand if and when asked.

They’re not “lending a hand” tho are they - they’re fighting a proxy war through Ukraine.

 

Biden is currently trying to get $33bn dollars of weapons to Ukraine. That’s not lending a hand is it.

2 minutes ago, geared said:

 

Obviously you can't expect much from our own PM as we're pretty staunchly anti-Russia right now.

Why can’t we?

[L00b 441]

33 minutes ago, makapaka said:

What was the ceaseless diplomacy undertaken - I haven’t seen any 

You should broaden your news sources, alternatively Google the issue, instead of confessing to ignorance.
 

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-putins-last-open-line-to-the-west/

27 minutes ago, makapaka said:

They’re not “lending a hand” tho are they - they’re fighting a proxy war through Ukraine.

 

Biden is currently trying to get $33bn dollars of weapons to Ukraine. That’s not lending a hand is it?

I’m aware of plenty of countries lending a hand indeed, by shipping equipment to Ukraine and passing intelligence, for the Ukrainian army to use.

 

I’m not aware of any country, other than Ukraine, fighting Ukraine’s corner in Ukraine.

 

So, I’m going to ask you again: do you propose that the West gives Putin a hand in his aggression, by withholding assistance to Ukraine?

Edited April 29, 2022 by L00b

[Guest makapaka]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

You should broaden your news sources, alternatively Google the issue, instead of confessing to ignorance.

Any diplomatic approach would have to

be coordinated across all of the west - sending a link that macron was in contact with putin is not evidence of ceaseless diplomacy - the article itself is 6 weeks old. 

1 hour ago, L00b said:

So, I’m going to ask you again: do you propose that the West gives Putin a hand in his aggression, by withholding assistance to Ukraine?

I don’t think we should withhold assistance from Ukraine, I also don’t think we should fight a proxy war with Russia - by for example giving them $33bn dollars of arms.

 

the bbc are reporting that the war is now anticipated to go on “for years”.

 

that’s not going to help anyone - except maybe arms dealers. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by makapaka

[harvey19 541]

3 hours ago, L00b said:

That statement is simply stating a fact:  western democracies have a right to help Ukraine if Ukraine asks.
 

Whether they do or not, and how much if they do, is a geopolitical choice by their respective government.

 

After that, whether they help free Ukraine (-only) and stop at the Russian border or not, is a NATO choice.

 

The only escalation to date, has been by Putin, first with his unilateral aggression of Ukraine, next with doubling down on the aggression at every occasion. Any escalation to a wider area as you suggest, would be by Putin hitting targets beyond Ukraine, as I simply cannot see NATO troops attacking Russia preemptively, ever.

 

So if he considers western democracies staging more khaki people and hardware ever nearer Ukraine, in preparation should Putin step further on his appendage by hitting a NATO state, as an “escalation”, maybe he should consider toning down his aggression in the first place, of which he has full control, so that western democracies do not feel compelled to take such preventive measures.

 

Why should the West endorse any degree of responsibility for Putin’s own actions?

 

Would you prefer to sit down quietly and let him have at it, until he comes knocking at Dover like Adolf did last time? Appeasement worked well then, didn’t it?

I am still left wondering why we are getting so deeply involved.

Surely it is the EU that should be the ones providing assistance as the conflict is much closer to their borders.

What is the UNs involvement ?

Edited April 29, 2022 by harvey19

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, makapaka said:

Any diplomatic approach would have to

be coordinated across all of the west - sending a link that macron was in contact with putin is not evidence of ceaseless diplomacy - the article itself is 6 weeks old. 

It’s one link to illustrate the point: if you want more evidence to sate your curiosity, just look it up yourself, Google is a click away and chock-full on the topic, right up to date.

 

I’m not desperate to convince you.
 

TBH, personally I’d sooner diplomatic initiatives were given a good pause altogether, and all Russian diplomats were declared persona non grata and chucked out at 24 hours notice across the West (and beyond). That’s the kind and scale of diplomatic signalling needed for getting through to Russian people across Putin’s propaganda. 

 

It’s easy enough to resume them, once Russia comes to some semblance of senses.

1 hour ago, makapaka said:

I don’t think we should withhold assistance from Ukraine, I also don’t think we should fight a proxy war with Russia - by for example giving them $33bn dollars of arms.

Ah, I think I see the nuance.

 

Give a couple $ millions’ worth of band aids and helmets to say we’ve “done something”, but not enough to allow Ukraine to keep Russian forces at bay, so the war comes to a close sooner.
 

Have I got that right?

Edited April 29, 2022 by L00b

[L00b 441]

26 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

I am still left wondering why we are getting so deeply involved.

Surely it is the EU that should be the ones providing assistance as the conflict is much closer to their borders.

What is the UNs involvement ?

If you don’t like the scale of your government’s involvement with Ukraine, I suggest that you do something about it.

 

I understand there’s some elections coming up across the whole of the UK shortly, so there’s a perfect opportunity for you to voice your discontent 👍🏻
 

For the rest of it, the EU is, in aggregate, providing much more support to Ukraine than the UK, with welcoming and hosting over 6 millions refugees visa-free to start with.

 

There’s 250 Ukrainian kids who just started schooling at our kid’s international school week before last, we’ll be taking a few out weekend after next, and repeat every 2nd weekend for the foreseeable future, to give them a bit of life and reasons to smile. How many Ukrainian kids hosted and schooled in your neck of the woods?

 

That’s before we even start considering military aid. Poland just gave Ukraine 200 main battle tanks.

 

I’ve never seen this as a willy-waving contest, believing on the contrary that each country should do what it can, as it wants to (and the US can certainly afford $33bns’ worth, especially if it’s under a lend-lease, @makapaka). So please don’t force me to, with your insular perspective.

 

As for the UN, why don’t you look it up yourself and inform us? 🙂

Edited April 29, 2022 by L00b

[crazyhorse 37]

I don't understand this Russian fear of invasion from the West.

What has Russia to offer to the West anyway, that is worth invading for?

A massive drink problem.

A suicide rate 3 times ours.

A declining population with a birth rate well below replacement rate...resulting in one of the world's most elderly populations.

An resource-cursed economy overdependent on gas and oil...that the World needs to move away from...

Millions of square miles of cold, remote, uninhabited wilderness...

No justice and a corrupt ruling elite quite happy to remove you personally to remove their problem.

 

I find it really revealing that whenever the "heroic" Russian army captures any Ukrainian territory...the second thing they do (after doing what they want with the local women) is to strip the place of anything of value like locusts...booze, laptops, domestic appliances, vehicles.

Some Ukrainian guy was on the TV the other day saying that they had stolen his (GPS tracked) machinery and shipped it back to Russia.

 

Either soldier's pay must be peanuts (or stolen by their officers) or life must be pretty crap in Russia for them to be doing this en-masse.

Although they could simply be imitating their masters...a fish rots from the head after all.

 

They are nothing more than an undisciplined rabble...the same way medieval armies lost battles because they stopped to pillage their enemies baggage train.

 

I think Putin is probably happy with them doing this...it keeps the mob off his back for a few more months.

Having stolen all their money with his chums...he can no longer offer the Russian people any increase to their standard of living...except via the route of conquest and pillage.

Millions of Russians will never achieve that Western Dream and they know it.

 

Let's reinforce our borders, keep supplying the arms to Ukraine, keep the sanctions up, start sanctioning his allies, build nuclear plants, turn off our lights, lower the heating and contain them until the guy is overthrown.

Autocracies never last...democracies will always outlast them.

[harvey19 541]

55 minutes ago, L00b said:

If you don’t like the scale of your government’s involvement with Ukraine, I suggest that you do something about it.

 

I understand there’s some elections coming up across the whole of the UK shortly, so there’s a perfect opportunity for you to voice your discontent 👍🏻
 

For the rest of it, the EU is, in aggregate, providing much more support to Ukraine than the UK, with welcoming and hosting over 6 millions refugees visa-free to start with.

 

There’s 250 Ukrainian kids who just started schooling at our kid’s international school week before last, we’ll be taking a few out weekend after next, and repeat every 2nd weekend for the foreseeable future, to give them a bit of life and reasons to smile. How many Ukrainian kids hosted and schooled in your neck of the woods?

 

That’s before we even start considering military aid. Poland just gave Ukraine 200 main battle tanks.

 

I’ve never seen this as a willy-waving contest, believing on the contrary that each country should do what it can, as it wants to (and the US can certainly afford $33bns’ worth, especially if it’s under a lend-lease, @makapaka). So please don’t force me to, with your insular perspective.

 

As for the UN, why don’t you look it up yourself and inform us? 🙂

The UN are giving financial humanitarian aid but this is not bringing the conflict to an end.

Do you live in the UK Loob. I only ask because of your mention of the 250 Ukrainian children at your kid's school ?

[trastrick 866]

5 hours ago, L00b said:

My view is that you don’t have one, since the ‘root’ of the issue is NATO enlargement according to you, and Putin’s actions are precipitating that enlargement to countries which did not consider it (any more than usual) prior to February.

Nope!

 

What you have here is escalation.

 

It did have a beginning, you know!

 

It was the Ukraine who joined the European Union, and sought membership in the Mitlitary Allince with Germany and the U.S.

 

But Ukraine is in the backyard of Russia, the Bear, run by a Dictatorial Totalitarian.

 

Some see that as provoking the Bear.

 

Because most folks understand the danger there.

 

Bears and Dictatorial Totalitarians do what the do. It's their nature.

 

The Big Lie that "the rest of the world supports Zelensky" is just that.

 

China, India, Middle East, Africa, South America and many other countries, where most people live, have not joined the West's latest elitist moral supremist's latest crusade.

 

They've seen it up close and remember!

[L00b 441]

18 minutes ago, harvey19 said:

The UN are giving financial humanitarian aid but this is not bringing the conflict to an end.

Do you live in the UK Loob. I only ask because of your mention of the 250 Ukrainian children at your kid's school ?

It’s common knowledge amongst the regulars that I Brexoded to Luxembourg.

16 minutes ago, trastrick said:

(…)

 

China, India, Middle East, Africa, South America and many other countries, where most people live, have not joined the West's latest elitist moral supremist's latest crusade.

Don’t confuse absence of virtue-signalling for absence of support.

Edited April 29, 2022 by L00b

[harvey19 541]

Had a very enjoyable holiday in Luxembourg several years ago.

I recall we went up in a cable car and also visited an area where there were lots of rocks with narrow gaps to squeeze through.

Edited April 29, 2022 by harvey19