Ukraine: Invasion Imminent?

[melthebell 863]

5 minutes ago, crazyhorse said:

These dictators always go in one of two ways...violently at the hands of their own people, or exiled to a Gulf state.

 

They surround themselves with reliable yes men...sit in their palace and have no interaction with real people.

They think the people love them, because that is what their (terrified) acolytes tell them.

Eventually they end up on a balcony, looking bemused, whilst desperately trying to pacify an angry mob with an emergency pay increase...like that guy in Romania.

Then they end up executed or hung from a lamp post.

sounds good, when do they start? can we start over here too while were at it?

[harvey19 541]

15 minutes ago, L00b said:

So the point of your questions to Jim117 and me was…?

If you had been ex military I think you would have realised things change to suit a situation and that what is seen on a clip of film is only a small part of a situation.

I would not belittle the Russian army or their lack of tactical planning. 

News is not always accurate or objective .

 

[L00b 441]

Just now, harvey19 said:

If you had been ex military I think you would have realised things change to suit a situation and that what is seen on a clip of film is only a small part of a situation.

I would not belittle the Russian army or their lack of tactical planning. 

News is not always accurate or objective .

You don’t need to be military or ex-military to realise that at all.

 

Nor to realise that one clip is neither news, nor is it ever giving the full context of what it shows: it’s just raw footage, content showing stuff happening at a particular place at a particular time.
 

But in that respect, each clip, in isolation, is the summum of accuracy and objectivity: it shows what it shows, anything beyond what it shows is interpretation, opinion, analysis (-biased or not). Unless it is demonstrably (or later demonstrated to be) manipulated video.

 

Now take fifty clips, each taken at a different place and time, each showing the same content (say: clearly bunched up BMPs / trucks, on a main road, in a conurbation or in the middle of the countryside, most or all units with visible ‘Z’ markings, each time with the either the frontmost and/or the rearmost units getting targeted first).
 

Each such clip is either drone footage, or ATGM video screen footage, and uploaded by Ukrainian forces doing/monitoring the shooting to the OSINT community, i.e. not curated/analysed/commented one way or the other by the BBC, Fox News or whoever else.
 

What conclusion would you form from these fifty clips (as opposed to: from a single clip)?

[crazyhorse 37]

 

2 hours ago, L00b said:

Russians haven’t displayed much of any combined arms capacity, still less a capacity to deploy close air support (attack planes or helos supporting advancing armour). They’re certainly good at bombing places out of existence with artillery (/bombs, missiles, etc.), but that’s about the sum total of it.

I have no military experience...but think the Russians have been forced to change tactics because of unexpected heavy losses in the early stages of their invasion.

They know that if they send in tanks to cities, they will be picked off via anti tank rockets in the basement windows and machine gunners on the roofs.

If they send in their helicopters, the Ukrainians will fire Stinger missiles from the roofs at them.

Those Soviet era concrete tower blocks look ideal for defense.

 

I don't think they know what to do apart from fire artillery at a distance and lay siege.

Like they did in Syria.

 

Problem is Kyv is not surrounded and is able to be resupplied like Stalingrad was.

The Russians have forgotten their own history.

 

I think the Ukrainians will hold out longer then the Russian Army can remain deployed in the field.

Surely Russian troops need to be rotated to stay fit enough to fight.

Ukrainian troops are fighting on home soil with shorter supply lines and most importantly have more of a will to fight.

 

 

 

[harvey19 541]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

You don’t need to be military or ex-military to realise that at all.

 

Nor to realise that one clip is neither news, nor is it ever giving the full context of what it shows: it’s just raw footage, content showing stuff happening at a particular place at a particular time.
 

But in that respect, each clip, in isolation, is the summum of accuracy and objectivity: it shows what it shows, anything beyond what it shows is interpretation, opinion, analysis (-biased or not). Unless it is demonstrably (or later demonstrated to be) manipulated video.

 

Now take fifty clips, each taken at a different place and time, each showing the same content (say: clearly bunched up BMPs / trucks, on a main road, in a conurbation or in the middle of the countryside, most or all units with visible ‘Z’ markings, each time with the either the frontmost and/or the rearmost units getting targeted first).
 

Each such clip is either drone footage, or ATGM video screen footage, and uploaded by Ukrainian forces doing/monitoring the shooting to the OSINT community, i.e. not curated/analysed/commented one way or the other by the BBC, Fox News or whoever else.
 

What conclusion would you form from these fifty clips (as opposed to: from a single clip)?

You have obviously watched more footage than I have and so am unable to comment.

[cgksheff 44]

Now the invaders are looking to clear the Ukrainian forests for gain.

Ukraine’s military intelligence: Russia plans mass logging of Ukrainian forests. (kyivindependent.com)

"Ukraine’s military intelligence published a letter allegedly written by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu asking for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s permission to start mass logging of Ukrainian forests. The wood would be sold, and the money would go for the Russian army. “All forests in the temporarily occupied territories are at the highest risk,” Ukraine’s intelligence said."

 

Actual source (Google translated):
"The occupying power plans mass deforestation of Ukrainian forests. This is stated in the letter of the Minister of defense of Russia Shoigu "On the possibility of cutting down on the lands of defense", which is addressed personally to Putin. ‎

‎The document aims to obtain permission for total felling of Ukrainian "forests, trees, shrubs and green spaces". It is planned to cut down "of any intensity and any age, regardless of the form of ownership and category of land with the right to use the resulting wood." ‎

‎At the same time, according to the letter, the wood unused for the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be sold, and the funds received will be used to provide the occupying army. ‎

‎Today, without exception, all forests that are in the temporarily occupied territories are at the highest risk. Total cutting down of green spaces is another terrible crime of the occupiers and the creation of ecocide. ‎

‎The last time this happened on the territory of Ukraine was during the fascist occupation. When the invaders destroyed and exported material and natural values.‎

[banjodeano 31]

2 hours ago, crazyhorse said:

 

I have no military experience...but think the Russians have been forced to change tactics because of unexpected heavy losses in the early stages of their invasion.

They know that if they send in tanks to cities, they will be picked off via anti tank rockets in the basement windows and machine gunners on the roofs.

If they send in their helicopters, the Ukrainians will fire Stinger missiles from the roofs at them.

Those Soviet era concrete tower blocks look ideal for defense.

 

I don't think they know what to do apart from fire artillery at a distance and lay siege.

Like they did in Syria.

 

Problem is Kyv is not surrounded and is able to be resupplied like Stalingrad was.

The Russians have forgotten their own history.

 

I think the Ukrainians will hold out longer then the Russian Army can remain deployed in the field.

Surely Russian troops need to be rotated to stay fit enough to fight.

Ukrainian troops are fighting on home soil with shorter supply lines and most importantly have more of a will to fight.

 

 

 

That will be why the Russians are bringing Syrian fighters to help them who already have urban combat experience...

[HumbleNarrator 286]

There are reports of  explosions inside Belarus. 

[horribleblob 213]

14 minutes ago, HumbleNarrator said:

There are reports of  explosions inside Belarus. 

According to the 'Newsweek' website just now:

 

Unexplained blasts heard in Belarus on Wednesday evening were not attacks, the country's air force has confirmed.

Earlier, a government official and local media reported that blasts had been heard in several cities in the south of the country.

In response, Belarus' 61st Fighter Air Base said: "There were no attacks on Belarus. The Su-30SM aircraft overcame supersonic speed, which created a sonic boom."

 

[HumbleNarrator 286]

I hope Belarus gets smashed - the regime and military that is, not the general population.

[Chekhov 488]

 

[Chekhov 488]

This is actually very impressive, Schwarzenegger judges it to perfection.

4.8m views and counting, unfortunately most will probably won't be in Russia....

Edited March 17, 2022 by Chekhov