COVID THREAD

[RJRB 688]

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

It's not difficult to be right more often than the "experts" advising the government.

One would only have to make it 50/50 correct and one would still beat them by a HUGE margin :

 

Mid March 2020 : "We could have half a million Covid deaths in the UK"
19 March 2020 : "12 weeks to flatten the curve".

Late March : "This virus is indiscriminate"
November 2020 : "Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day worst case scenario".
Spring 2021 : "Get double vaccinated to get out of Covid and back to normal".
July 2021 : "Freedom day is irresponsible, we could have 200K cases per day by August".
11 Dec 21 : "Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April"

15 Dec 21 : "Omicron likely to be the biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far".

 

The ONLY thing I do not understand is why anyone listens to them any more.....

Your trenchant views can only be the result of having far greater wisdom than a panel of leading scientists,or possibly far less,which enables you to be unencumbered with possible outcomes over the last 2 years.

I favour the latter.

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, fools said:

The Iron maiden example is very "Brass Eye"

To be fair, I would prefer a satire explanation.

[Chekhov 488]

2 hours ago, sibon said:

You can believe whatever you want, in your own little world.

Do remember two things though.

First, models aren't guesses. Guessing is what you do. Modelling is what experts do.

Second. Models initiate changes to policy and behaviour. In turn, that changes outcomes.

Guessing might give you  a50/50 chance of being right. I have been right, more or less, in everything apart from a big surge in winter 20/21 because I forgot that Covid (particularly when it was less infectious as it was in late 2020) was seasonal. I do not profess any particular expertise, it's all pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the stats rather than just accept all this scaremongering narrative.

 

On the other hand, the "experts" you seem to be so confident about have been wrong almost every time. 

How many times must I remind you before you remember ? :

 

Mid March 2020 : "We could have half a million Covid deaths in the UK"
19 March 2020 : "12 weeks to flatten the curve".

Late March 2020 : "This virus is indiscriminate"
November 2020 : "Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day worst case scenario".
Spring 2021 : "Get double vaccinated to get out of Covid and back to normal".
July 2021 : "Freedom day is irresponsible, we could have 200K cases per day by August".
11 Dec 21 : "Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April"

15 Dec 21 : "Omicron likely to be the biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far"

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Chekhov

[Chekhov 488]

4 hours ago, Delayed said:

Thank you Captain Hindsight. You should be the Labour Party Leader with the way you advise what should've happened after the event. 

It is not hindsight, I have said all of this all the way through right back to March 2020.

I can remember, back on the 11th March 2020, seeing Italy shutting down the north of the country. I was literally shouting at the TV "you cannot do that, have you any idea how much trouble that will cause !". Madness, particularly as  99% of people were known to be surviving the infection.....
Even back then I quickly concluded the response to Covid was the biggest over reaction in the history of the world. And if that was at all arguable in 2020 then from about March 2021 - when pretty much all the vulnerable in this country were vaccinated - it certainly wasn't.
With the benefit of hindsight ? I have not changed my view one iota.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Chekhov

[Chekhov 488]

1 hour ago, RJRB said:

Your trenchant views can only be the result of having far greater wisdom than a panel of leading scientists,or possibly far less,which enables you to be unencumbered with possible outcomes over the last 2 years.

I favour the latter.

Say what you want, to be fair to the scientists they were often asked to model the most pessimistic scenarios, but their professionalism should have stopped then putting their names to all that cobblers. But they wanted to be on the TV, and, let's be honest, they weren't really affected by all this suppression working from home in their public sector jobs with index linked pensions to look forward to.

You misunderstand where these "experts" are coming from. Whitty and the rest are only really bothered about Covid stats, but that is their job so you cannot blame them for being so blinkered. They are not bothered about the economy or the damage to society or the effect on people's enjoyment of life. It is also that they don't want to be blamed if there is a big wave, and as they are not on the hook for the collateral damage of restrictions, so they obviously recommend harsh actions.  Similarly, for nearly all of this nightmare (though it's changing now), the scientists had little to gain by being optimistic and much to lose if they went against the overwhelming narrative and were then proved wrong. There's comfort and safety in being in a big gang.....

It's not the scientists who are to blame though it is the government. They should not be saying "we will be led by the science" because, by definition, that will mean we will always be over reacting to Covid.
And that is why we are where we are.

[hackey lad 3,949]

2 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Say what you want, to be fair to the scientists they were often asked to model the most pessimistic scenarios, but their professionalism should have stopped then putting their names to all that cobblers. But they wanted to be on the TV, and, let's be honest, they weren't really affected by all this suppression working from home in their public sector jobs with index linked pensions to look forward to.

You misunderstand where these "experts" are coming from. Whitty and the rest are only really bothered about Covid stats, but that is their job so you cannot blame them for being so blinkered. They are not bothered about the economy or the damage to society or the effect on people's enjoyment of life. It is also that they don't want to be blamed if there is a big wave, and as they are not on the hook for the collateral damage of restrictions, so they obviously recommend harsh actions.  Similarly, for nearly all of this nightmare (though it's changing now), the scientists had little to gain by being optimistic and much to lose if they went against the overwhelming narrative and were then proved wrong. There's comfort and safety in being in a big gang.....

It's not the scientists who are to blame though it is the government. They should not be saying "we will be led by the science" because, by definition, that will mean we will always be over reacting to Covid.
And that is why we are where we are.

I enjoy reading your posts , another one please .

[steve68 66]

1 minute ago, hackey lad said:

I enjoy reading your posts , another one please .

to be fair he is entertaining👍, I've never seen so many traits in one poster 

[Guest sibon]

22 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Guessing might give you  a50/50 chance of being right. I have been right, more or less, in everything apart from a big surge in winter 20/21 because I forgot that Covid (particularly when it was less infectious as it was in late 2020) was seasonal. I do not profess any particular expertise, it's all pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the stats rather than just accept all this scaremongering narrative.

 

On the other hand, the "experts" you seem to be so confident about have been wrong almost every time

 

 

I'm amazed that the massed ranks of world Governments have paid for highly qualified and experienced people to prepare forecasts for them.

 

It would have been much cheaper to just keep feeding Paul the Octopus

[butlers 259]

Of the earliest modelling they under estimated the likely deaths in the  most probable outcome.

The American CDC modelling for the UK was within a few thousand of the modelling the UK government settled on too

[RJRB 688]

@Chekhov

And do you really believe  that some of your views were not represented in the range of possible outcomes at the various stages along the way.

Not only by the scientists but politicians,financial experts ,industry leaders etc.etc.

Not only in this country but around the world in virtually every country.

So you continue to fail to recognise the day to day complexity of decisions.

Some have been shown to be wrong but in your world you have got it right from the get go

[Guest sibon]

2 minutes ago, steve68 said:

to be fair he is entertaining👍, I've never seen so many traits in one poster 

There's a whole hatful of this stuff, under the username Justin Smith. He's started some cracking threads. Have a search.

[steve68 66]

1 minute ago, sibon said:

There's a whole hatful of this stuff, under the username Justin Smith. He's started some cracking threads. Have a search.

its ok it was me that dug them out, he's on another forum that i'm on but he has been muzzled by the owner