COVID THREAD

[fools 447]

Conflating people who haven't had a vaccine, with dangerous extremists, is quite .... hateful. An unpleasant road to go down.

[Chekhov 488]

Chekhov said:
Funny how, at the time, they did not stress the fact their models were, basically, just a guess.

On 09/01/2022 at 14:54, sibon said:

The models aren't a guess. But, as they are modelling things yet to happen, the models have to make a range of assumptions.

If you read the Guardian article that you linked to, it makes that abundantly clear.

No, models are just guesses, albeit "informed guesses". They also depend on the data and assumptions put into them, and if the assumptions are wrong (as I have said pretty much all the way through this but, hey, they're the experts...) then the models will be wrong. As indeed they have bene just about every time, did you want me to list all their errors, or are we accepting how inaccurate they were ?

[Dromedary 166]

52 minutes ago, melthebell said:

well ive booked in for my booster....cos i know it annoys a few people on here lol

Already had mine and my flu jab but still got Omicron I believe. Had all the symptoms and to me it felt like a bad cold but I am aged. Stayed in bed for a few days topping up with paracetamol and a thermos type flask of hot blackcurrant and Brandy by the side to ease the cough.

[Guest]

 

5 minutes ago, fools said:

Conflating people who haven't had a vaccine, with dangerous extremists, is quite .... hateful. An unpleasant road to go down.

Now you're just being silly.

[fools 447]

6 minutes ago, Hecate said:

 

Now you're just being silly.

Perhaps you should look up some of the recent rhetoric coming from our French speaking allies and reassess your view.

[melthebell 863]

10 minutes ago, Dromedary said:

Already had mine and my flu jab but still got Omicron I believe. Had all the symptoms and to me it felt like a bad cold but I am aged. Stayed in bed for a few days topping up with paracetamol and a thermos type flask of hot blackcurrant and Brandy by the side to ease the cough.

good luck fella, get better soon

[Guest sibon]

10 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

Chekhov said:
Funny how, at the time, they did not stress the fact their models were, basically, just a guess.

No, models are just guesses, albeit "informed guesses". They also depend on the data and assumptions put into them, and if the assumptions are wrong (as I have said pretty much all the way through this but, hey, they're the experts...) then the models will be wrong. As indeed they have bene just about every time, did you want me to list all their errors, or are we accepting how inaccurate they were ?

You can believe whatever you want, in your own little world.

 

Do remember two things though.

 

First, models aren't guesses. Guessing is what you do. Modelling is what experts do.

 

Second. Models initiate changes to policy and behaviour. In turn, that changes outcomes.

 

 

[Chekhov 488]

22 hours ago, hackey lad said:

I have heard Google phone Chekhov if there’s anything they need to know 

It's not difficult to be right more often than the "experts" advising the government.

One would only have to make it 50/50 correct and one would still beat them by a HUGE margin :

 

Mid March 2020 : "We could have half a million Covid deaths in the UK"
19 March 2020 : "12 weeks to flatten the curve".

Late March : "This virus is indiscriminate"
November 2020 : "Modelling suggests 4,000 deaths per day worst case scenario".
Spring 2021 : "Get double vaccinated to get out of Covid and back to normal".
July 2021 : "Freedom day is irresponsible, we could have 200K cases per day by August".
11 Dec 21 : "Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April"

15 Dec 21 : "Omicron likely to be the biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far".

 

The ONLY thing I do not understand is why anyone listens to them any more.....

[Guest]

1 minute ago, fools said:

Perhaps you should look up some of the recent rhetoric coming from our French speaking allies and reassess your view.

I know you're lurching about a bit for a response to my original post about the article in The Times, but the tangent you started going down on this page is just the tiniest wee bit of a strawman.

[Anna B 1,409]

15 minutes ago, Hecate said:

 

Now you're just being silly.

No, I don't think it's silly at all. There's no doubt that people who haven't been vaccinated are being villified and blamed for the ongoing pandemic which is unfair to say the least, verging on the vindictive, not to say ridiculous

 

It's probably true that those who have had 2 or 3 jabs will have only built up 'second rate' immunity, and will probably need at least one jab every year, possibly more.

Whereas those who haven't had the jab and caught Covid will have built themselves the Rolls Royce of natural immunity in their system's which may well last them a lifetime.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Anna B

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, sibon said:

You can believe whatever you want, in your own little world.

 

Do remember two things though.

 

First, models aren't guesses. Guessing is what you do. Modelling is what experts do.

 

Second. Models initiate changes to policy and behaviour. In turn, that changes outcomes.

 

 

I linked to this article one of the last times this came up.  I don't think everyone read it.

[fools 447]

ooh strawman, Telegram, qanon, dark-web ..  careful of those words, bit of a pattern developing.

 

I responded to your posts, and the responses to it. It amuses (and bemuses) me that people take it all in without question, hence the lol.

 

There is no tangent. or lurching about - It's all part of a pattern to ostracise the unvaccinated, a very unpleasant turn of events. Calling many of them extremists, far-right, racist, mysogynist, calling for punishment, is not what I expect from people in positions of power.