Compulsory Vaccination?

[Chekhov 488]

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

>>(1) More immunity in a population retards the spread of covid versus less immunity other things being equal. Any immunity retards the spread versus no immunity. Could you please acknowledge this?

(2) There is a threshold above which the level of immunity in a population causes an epidemic (under a specified, fixed set of conditions) to dwindle rather than increase in size.<<

 

I just asked you to acknowledge that herd immunity (my usage) is a thing. But you are jumping ahead and talking about suppression.

It's a thing, but whether is is worthwhile is another thing entirely.

I do not believe (2) can occur, and neither do most "experts", certainly not by vaccination anyway, so. ironically, if you think we should be going for herd immunity the only other way is by infection, and therefore trying to suppress Covid is working against you for that !

(1) well yes that is obviously correct, how is that different from what I have said ? But, bearing in mind vaccines are not that effective at stopping infection,  you will stand a better chance of achieving that by, ironically, more people catching Covid

[Carbuncle 0]

3 hours ago, Chekhov said:

5 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

>>(1) More immunity in a population retards the spread of covid versus less immunity other things being equal. Any immunity retards the spread versus no immunity. Could you please acknowledge this?

(2) There is a threshold above which the level of immunity in a population causes an epidemic (under a specified, fixed set of conditions) to dwindle rather than increase in size.<<

 

I just asked you to acknowledge that herd immunity (my usage) is a thing. But you are jumping ahead and talking about suppression.

It's a thing, but whether is is worthwhile is another thing entirely.

I do not believe (2) can occur, and neither do most "experts", certainly not by vaccination anyway, so. ironically, if you think we should be going for herd immunity the only other way is by infection, and therefore trying to suppress Covid is working against you for that !

(1) well yes that is obviously correct, how is that different from what I have said ? But, bearing in mind vaccines are not that effective at stopping infection,  you will stand a better chance of achieving that by, ironically, more people catching Covid

Slow down there.

 

I asserted a few posts back that (2) crossing the herd immunity threshold is what did for the classic and alpha variants. Are you prepared to accept that? [You suggested that they had been out-competed by delta which as far as I can see is not an explanation for classic and alpha being (virtually) eliminated other than through the workings of herd immunity.]

 

In reality, I think essentially all eliminations of a virus (variant) can be interpreted as arising through crossing a herd immunity threshold. [I am not asserting covid will be eliminated this way. I am uncertain whether covid will be eliminated in the next few decades, though I think most probably it will not.]

Edited November 26, 2021 by Carbuncle

[Carbuncle 0]

3 hours ago, Chekhov said:

Did you not look at those graphs ? They indicate the cause and effect might not be as you surmise :

I have looked at the graphs. One thing I would say is that the labeling the Spectator has put on these graphs seems unhelpful and is easily misinterpreted so you may want to look at the original paper. They pose no problems for my understanding of how cause and effect is working in regards to suppression.

[Carbuncle 0]

3 hours ago, Chekhov said:

It really isn't. One of the only pro suppressionists that have ever pout numbers on how much suppression is worth how many lives was Labour journalist and campaigner Mike Buckley, who I heard on the radio saying "all secondary school pupils wearing masks would be worth it to save one life".

I suggested your argument was a strawman. You have found somebody, Mike Buckley,  who made the argument. To which I can only reply: who the **** is Mike Buckley?

 

Painting your toenails pink absolutely does not stop covid. Oh, you didn't say that ... well my friend Jen did so I am going to argue against it rather than addressing the points you have made.

[Chekhov 488]

The NHS is under pressure !

It is, and it is Covid related, but it's not for the reason you may think :

 

It's got a lot to do with the fact so many beds are blocked with older patients who cannot be found care packages for. And the reason is that the care industry is in crisis, it cannot get the staff. To be fair they have always had a problem getting enough staff, but the introduction of compulsory vaccinations * for care workers has made it a CRISIS with a capital C.

It's even on the BBC (that bastion of Covid scaremongering)  :

 

Social care crisis: Woman, 92, waited four months to be discharged

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59010673

"Just a week after being admitted to hospital with an infection, 92-year-old Esme Hanson was well enough to go home.

But it would be four months before she could return to her family because of a lack of available care.

One care provider told BBC Wales staff shortages were so bad, it handed care packages back to the local council."

 

It was obvious this was going to happen, to anyone with half a brain anyway. In fact I remember talking to the manager of my Mother In Law's care home months ago saying she was very worried where she'd get the staff she needs from as a significant minority of her current care staff would not get vaccinated (and therefore would be sacked). Not that they even need to get vaccinated because all the residents have been vaccinated and are therefore very unlikely to die of Covid. But these days who is actually bothered about logic anymore ?

 

* and, I would expect, mandatory mask wearing all day, who wants to do that ? Not me for certain.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Chekhov

[Longcol 598]

42 minutes ago, Chekhov said:

The NHS is under pressure !

It is, and it is Covid related, but it's not for the reason you may think :

 

It's got a lot to do with the fact so many beds are blocked with older patients who cannot be found care packages so many beds are blocked with older people who they cannot sort care packages for. And the reason is that the care industry is in crisis, it cannot get the staff. To be fair they have always had a problem getting enough staff, but the introduction of compulsory vaccinations * for care workers has made it a CRISIS with a capital C.

 

 

 

 

Naturally Brexit has played no part in the staffing crisis  😎

 

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/how-care-home-staffing-crisis-is-being-fuelled-by-post-brexit-immigration-rules-lesley-dodo-3275428

 

https://www.cgdev.org/blog/staffing-shortages-uks-care-sector-sign-things-come

 

and umpteen others............................

[Chekhov 488]

15 hours ago, Longcol said:

Naturally Brexit has played no part in the staffing crisis  😎

 

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/how-care-home-staffing-crisis-is-being-fuelled-by-post-brexit-immigration-rules-lesley-dodo-3275428

https://www.cgdev.org/blog/staffing-shortages-uks-care-sector-sign-things-come

and umpteen others............................

Where did I say compulsory vaccination (and having to wear a mask all day, which cannot be that nice for the residents either) of care home staff was the only cause of the crisis ? 

But it is undoubtedly one of main drivers. This point was made by the manager of my Mother-In-Laws care home.

[Chekhov 488]

Love it (but never has a truer word been said in jest) :

[Anna B 1,401]

The poll shows that once again the population are divided pretty much down the middle, which is interesting.

I think it shows the polarisation taking place in society which is splitting the population. 

Just like with Brexit I really can't see the way forward theses days. There's a lot of disaffection and angst going on.

People are not happy. 

 

[Carbuncle 0]

3 minutes ago, Anna B said:

The poll shows that once again the population are divided pretty much down the middle, which is interesting.

I think it shows the polarisation taking place in society which is splitting the population. 

Just like with Brexit I really can't see the way forward theses days. There's a lot of disaffection and angst going on.

People are not happy. 

 

The curious thing is that those who have expressed an opinion on the poll question in a post have all spoken against compulsory vaccination (I think) yet the poll has split fairly evenly. There seems to have been a lot of 'shy voting' on just one side of the issue.

[RJRB 688]

On 26/11/2021 at 20:45, Chekhov said:

The NHS is under pressure !

It is, and it is Covid related, but it's not for the reason you may think :

 

 

It was obvious this was going to happen, to anyone with half a brain anyway. In fact I remember talking to the manager of my Mother In Law's care home months ago saying she was very worried where she'd get the staff she needs from as a significant minority of her current care staff would not get vaccinated (and therefore would be sacked). Not that they even need to get vaccinated because all the residents have been vaccinated and are therefore very unlikely to die of Covid. But these days who is actually bothered about logic anymore ?

 

* and, I would expect, mandatory mask wearing all day, who wants to do that ? Not me for certain.

I like a bit of logic,but see none in this.

“Residents are very unlikely to die of Covid because they have all been vaccinated,but care staff don’t need the vaccine..”

On that basis it seems at least advisable

 

1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

Love it (but never has a truer word been said in jest) :

That could have been written by Daddy,but he prefers one liners or even one worders.

[Anna B 1,401]

3 hours ago, Chekhov said:

Love it (but never has a truer word been said in jest) :

Playing Devil's advocate here, but we don't seem to mind having a flu jab every year (because each flu season brings a new varient.) Is this really so different? Once this thing is more under control, I think a covid jab will be offered to the older population every year just like Flu. 

 

There seems to be a lot of hysteria around on both sides. By trying to steer a centre course the government is damned if they do and damned if they don't. They've made mistakes for sure, and sometimes gone over the top, but I think a lot of this crisis is down to the media's reactions. Exageration and drama sells newspapers. Calm, balanced, sensible reporting doesn't.