China, How Worried Should We Be?

[Jim117 72]

Some time back I read an article written by a defence analyst. He stated that China’s expansion of its military and also its hacking program could be traced back to the Gulf wars. Namely they were shocked at the ease with which modern forces steamrolled the obsolete soviet era kit used by both Iraq and China. The rush to modernise began. Fast forward to the present and we have the following: China’s fast expanding navy is to include amphibious assault ships, an offensive rather than defensive weapon. Captains in coast guard vessels can now open fire at their own discretion. Chinese warplanes have repeatedly violated Taiwanese airspace and just to finish up China has told Taiwan that independence means war. Meanwhile Biden has reiterated support for Taiwan. This isn’t boding well in my view, thoughts?

[Westie1889 0]

1 hour ago, Jim117 said:

Some time back I read an article written by a defence analyst. He stated that China’s expansion of its military and also its hacking program could be traced back to the Gulf wars. Namely they were shocked at the ease with which modern forces steamrolled the obsolete soviet era kit used by both Iraq and China. The rush to modernise began. Fast forward to the present and we have the following: China’s fast expanding navy is to include amphibious assault ships, an offensive rather than defensive weapon. Captains in coast guard vessels can now open fire at their own discretion. Chinese warplanes have repeatedly violated Taiwanese airspace and just to finish up China has told Taiwan that independence means war. Meanwhile Biden has reiterated support for Taiwan. This isn’t boding well in my view, thoughts?

I’ve been going to China for the best part of 25 years and have seen changes in their policy.

What I would say is that in the past they have gone out of their way to avoid interfering in other countries be it militarily or otherwise.

Part of that I believe was to stop other countries interfering in their domestic issues, especially around democracy.

However in the last 5 years or so this does seem to have changed. The editorials in the daily papers (which are basically propaganda machines) are much more vocal on external issues than they used to be.

Whether it’s a huge threat or not I’m honestly not sure.

The issues with Taiwan are not new, I stopped taking flights on the eastern seaboard as soon as the new train system opened as there were always 2 to 3 hour delays as they closed the airspace to perform maneuvers near Taiwan.

They also want control of the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and others. It will be a turning point in their military policy if they go on the offensive so maybe then is the time to get more worried.

 

Ultimately they are a world superpower and will want a military capability to match.

[Jim117 72]

Thanks for your insightful reply Westie1889. So to sum up, strictly from a layman’s point of view I hasten to add. They want a strong military because that’s what superpowers do. They want global influence and work towards that through soft power programs in developing countries. They are desperate to crack down on democracy in HK and Taiwan because they don’t want the contagion to spread to mainland China and upset the political status quo. They are trying to juggle all this while other countries they have strong trading links with and/or considerable financial investments in are expressing their disapproval. Would you say that was broadly accurate or is there more to it?

[Westie1889 0]

Yes I think that’s broadly right.
Geopolitically they are following the same policies as the US did in terms of loading other countries with huge loans in the name of investment (belt and road project) which those countries cannot afford to pay back.

They then take those assets or use the debt for political influence, Gwadar port in Pakistan being an example.

I suppose the danger militarily is that once you have a new modern capability you want to test it, 

In this regard I think India will be the key power in the region to act as a counter to China, they have a huge army due to the ongoing issues with Pakistan and share a border with China which already sees plenty of skirmishes with the Chinese army.

 

[frigate 10]

Edited January 30, 2021 by frigate

[frigate 10]

 The original Nationalist Chinese have occupied Taiwan for seventy two years. In thattime they have developed their own strongly independent ethos. We have been on their side for all those years. If it was going to be so easy for China to take over Taiwan why have they not done so for the last seventy two years? The Chinese Army and Air Force have not been tested since Korea. Their Navy has never been tested. The vaunted Chinese Army invaded a weakened and tiny Vietnam over thirty years ago and got a bloody nose for their trouble. The CCP may have convinced the Chinese population of the invincibility of the PLA. They have convinced no one else and not even themselves it would seem.  

[Guest]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/britain-launches-new-visa-for-millions-of-hongkongers-fleeing-chinas-crackdown

 

Looks like HongKongers will be shifting here.

[Delbow 686]

What we should be worried about is the genocide of Uighurs in China. It feels like the world is slowly waking up to the fact that one of its major trade partners is systematically killing and raping an unknown but seemingly alarmingly high number of people based on their ethnic group, a bit like if we'd been happily buying our consumer goods from Germany until about 1943 despite hearing the occasional account of how they were slaughtering the Jews. There are growing calls to boycott the 2022 winter Olympics in Beijing, and a number of governments (although not the UK) are starting to sound alarm bells and making noises about actually doing something about it. I find it incredibly troubling - we like to think that had we been around in the 1930s we'd have seen what was going on in Germany and automatically done the right thing. But it might be happening again right now, and what are we doing about it?

[tinfoilhat 11]

15 hours ago, Delbow said:

What we should be worried about is the genocide of Uighurs in China. It feels like the world is slowly waking up to the fact that one of its major trade partners is systematically killing and raping an unknown but seemingly alarmingly high number of people based on their ethnic group, a bit like if we'd been happily buying our consumer goods from Germany until about 1943 despite hearing the occasional account of how they were slaughtering the Jews. There are growing calls to boycott the 2022 winter Olympics in Beijing, and a number of governments (although not the UK) are starting to sound alarm bells and making noises about actually doing something about it. I find it incredibly troubling - we like to think that had we been around in the 1930s we'd have seen what was going on in Germany and automatically done the right thing. But it might be happening again right now, and what are we doing about it?

China have the whip hand over too many countries and  multinational corporations. If we refused all Chinese manufactured goods, the country would grind to a halt. Most western countries would grind to a halt.

[Delbow 686]

2 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

China have the whip hand over too many countries and  multinational corporations. If we refused all Chinese manufactured goods, the country would grind to a halt. Most western countries would grind to a halt.

Yes, that is a situation that has been allowed to occur by governments, companies and consumers putting profit and cheap consumables over human rights. As an example I was looking yesterday at which phones are not made in China - Sony, Asus, Librem. That's it. This needs to change very quickly - it is unconscionable that we don't act on this, but I can't see company executives agreeing to lower profits just because of a bit of mass murder, it will require sanctions and a change in consumer behaviour.

[tinfoilhat 11]

2 hours ago, Delbow said:

Yes, that is a situation that has been allowed to occur by governments, companies and consumers putting profit and cheap consumables over human rights. As an example I was looking yesterday at which phones are not made in China - Sony, Asus, Librem. That's it. This needs to change very quickly - it is unconscionable that we don't act on this, but I can't see company executives agreeing to lower profits just because of a bit of mass murder, it will require sanctions and a change in consumer behaviour.

I'm sure samsung are made in South Korea?

[Delbow 686]

31 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

I'm sure samsung are made in South Korea?

Apparently they were exclusively but now between 20-30% are made in China