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No New Petrol Or Diesel Cars After 2030-Will There Be A U Turn?

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1 minute ago, Anna B said:

There won't be any second hand ones at first, and I heard something on the radio about them not being as suitable for the second hand market because they wear out a bit like phones with bits that will not be cheaply replaced. They were estimating 5 years as the lifespan of some of the ones that are being made at the moment. When the computers go wrong for instance, they are the devil to fix and difficult to replace. The batteries too hold less charge the more you recharge them and won't necessarily be made replacable in the future. 

 

If you think how often you're told with electronic devices, be cheaper to buy a new one...

The manufacturers of course will want people to replace them with new cars.

 

Hope they're wrong, but just saying...

Saw plenty of old Nissan leafs and even more old Prius in that there London on my last visit (some hybrids will be allowed in 2030 remember). Biggest concern is the batteries as you point out. Renault offered (still offering?) lease deals on batteries for older electric vehicles if memory serves.

 

Put it another way. Oil is very much finite. Solar container ships, solar airliners are a long long way away. Fertilisers and pesticides (like them or not, there’s a strong argument they’ve increased the population of the planet more than anything) require oil, as do many many other things. If you’ve got any other ideas on how to get 7 billion (8 by 2030) around without the use of fossil fuels, in a hurry, please write in.

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3 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

Saw plenty of old Nissan leafs and even more old Prius in that there London on my last visit (some hybrids will be allowed in 2030 remember). Biggest concern is the batteries as you point out. Renault offered (still offering?) lease deals on batteries for older electric vehicles if memory serves.

 

Put it another way. Oil is very much finite. Solar container ships, solar airliners are a long long way away. Fertilisers and pesticides (like them or not, there’s a strong argument they’ve increased the population of the planet more than anything) require oil, as do many many other things. If you’ve got any other ideas on how to get 7 billion (8 by 2030) around without the use of fossil fuels, in a hurry, please write in.

Personally, I'd rather see them go down the hydrogen route. Yes, there are problems at the moment, but nothing that can't be overcome with technology and investment.

Saw a hydrogen powered train on TV the other day. Also like Elon Musk's vacuum tubes for shifting freight if not people.

I'd also like to see the country become more self-sufficient, so we don't have to import so much stuff if that's possible. Maybe now we're out of the EU we will be able to do more of that. The way stuff is shifted round the EU is so wasteful it's ridiculous.

 

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56 minutes ago, Anna B said:

I'd also like to see the country become more self-sufficient, so we don't have to import so much stuff if that's possible. Maybe now we're out of the EU we will be able to do more of that. The way stuff is shifted round the EU is so wasteful it's ridiculous.

The aim of leaving the EU is lower or zero tariffs, which makes imports more likely.

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2 hours ago, Anna B said:

Personally, I'd rather see them go down the hydrogen route. Yes, there are problems at the moment, but nothing that can't be overcome with technology and investment.

Saw a hydrogen powered train on TV the other day. Also like Elon Musk's vacuum tubes for shifting freight if not people.

I'd also like to see the country become more self-sufficient, so we don't have to import so much stuff if that's possible. Maybe now we're out of the EU we will be able to do more of that. The way stuff is shifted round the EU is so wasteful it's ridiculous.

 

I’d bet good money that most stuff chucked in landfill over the last 20 years comes from China. And we are a long wAay from being self sufficient- we haven’t been self sufficient in food since the mid 1800s. We aren’t self sufficient in energy and if Scotland goes its own way, we’ll be even further in the negative.

 

Hydrogen power can be done, but that’s more expensive and a good decade behind EVs.

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On 20/11/2020 at 19:30, Cyclecar said:

The "charge up at the pump" scenario could become tricky, and nothing to do with generating capacity.

 

If you recharge at home, the cost will be shown on your electricity bill. So at least you will know how much per kW it's costing you.

 

The cost of specifically charging your car at home will be shown on your electricity bill? How does that work?

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21 hours ago, Anna B said:

According to the CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research,) a third of motorists will not be able to afford even the cheapest electric car. That equates to about 10 million households.

That may well be the case. However, keep in mind that in 2030 they are not suddenly going to ban the use of petrol and diesel cars.

 

Petrol or diesel cars bought new in say 2029  are going to be around for quite a while. Think of the change over as a steady transition. By the time these  2029  petrol & diesel models hit the scrap yard,  there will be plenty of second hand electric cars available. 

 

Battery technology and electronics will have improved greatly by then.

 

The first few electric cars may well be a pain in the proverbial. Manufacturers will have to make them reliable beyond that, or they will go out of business-down the pan.

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The main issue with longevity is the battery, the rest is far more durable than a petrol or diesel vehicle.

An electric engine for example has very few moving parts (some just 4) compared to combustion engines with loads so the chances of a part breaking are far less and easier to repair.

The Tesla battery loses capacity over time, I think I read over 5 years it loses around 16% so that will directly affect the mileage that possible on one charge.

I also read an article that said if we are able to combine driverless technology with electric vehicles there will be no need to own a car, as the cost of using a taxi would be around 10% of a current taxi fare due to removing the drivers costs, negligible insurance requirements and very low maintenance due to them being good for 500k miles without any major mechanical replacements.

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1 hour ago, Janus said:

That may well be the case. However, keep in mind that in 2030 they are not suddenly going to ban the use of petrol and diesel cars.

 

Petrol or diesel cars bought new in say 2029  are going to be around for quite a while. Think of the change over as a steady transition. By the time these  2029  petrol & diesel models hit the scrap yard,  there will be plenty of second hand electric cars available. 

 

Battery technology and electronics will have improved greatly by then.

 

The first few electric cars may well be a pain in the proverbial. Manufacturers will have to make them reliable beyond that, or they will go out of business-down the pan.

Mmmm maybe, but if it suits their agenda, I can see them banning petrol cars that are, say, more than 5 years old, even 3...

The easiest and cheapest way to cut emissions is to cut the number of motorists, either by banning them or pricing them off the road. 

They don't give a s*** about the motorists as long as it doesn't affect them.

Edited by Anna B

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1) we've already covered the difficulties of storing hydrogen - people are working on it, but there isn't a solution yet.

 

2) hydrogen isn't an efficient fuel source we need electricity to produce the hydrogen,  and fuel cells are less efficient than batteries.

 

(i suspect that hydrogen will have a role to play, but it's *far* from a perfect solution)

 

Personally, i think it's all a bit of a red herring - we seem determined that the future will continue to be rammed full of cars, car parks, traffic jams, physical inactivity, transport poverty, etc. We could easily replace waaay more than half our car journeys with public transport and cycling.  giving a huge reduction in CO2, leaving us to choose between petrol or battery or hybrid for the car for the few journeys where it's necessary. Or even choose not to have a car, and still have access to adequate transport options.

 

(no-one would be forced to do anything : just look over the north sea : when people have a *real* choice of cycling, or public transport, vs the car, the numbers speak for themselves. There's your massive transport CO2 reduction, *and* people still get to choose what works for them.

 

yes EV's are expensive, but they don't need expensive fuel. i'm driving a lot less than i used to, but still spending £100/month. Add 100 to the monthly cost of running a 'normal' car, and suddenly the obvious cost-gap narrows significantly. 

Edited by ads36

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'Still have adequate transport options' is the key phrase in your post ads36, but will that happen?

 

A previous poster has quoted that nearly a quarter of the population (usually the lowest paid workers) do not have a car, yet the public transport system in Sheffield is appalling, as I suspect it is in most places except London. 

 

If it doesn't impact on them, most Tory politicians couldn't care less. I can't see that changing any time soon.

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16 hours ago, Anna B said:

either by banning them or pricing them off the road. 

 

 

They've already priced the less affluent from the trains, now the roads too?

 

Might as well just wall off the poor areas of town, poor sods won't be able to afford to leave anyway.

 

  

Just now, Anna B said:

the public transport system in Sheffield is appalling,

 

Not the worst by a long way tho.

 

Pretty sure last year Leeds became the largest city in Europe without any kind of rapid metro system.  Appalling award to earn.

Edited by geared

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