No New Petrol Or Diesel Cars After 2030-Will There Be A U Turn?

[soopah 17]

1 hour ago, geared said:

 

They don't currently exist do they?

So that notion kind of falls flat on it's face as we've already got a fairly substantial network of chargers that will start going whenever the user wants, not when supply is best.

 

Unless you wanna rip out everything and replace it?

No, but much in the same way your smartphone isn't using the very first charger you ever got now is it?  The old 500mah output chargers can barely keep the screen alive on a modern smartphone.  These things don't last forever.

You're also probably not using the first TV you ever got.  Technology is moving on.  There will come a point where either there is a feature or benefit that a new generation home charger will offer that you want, so you'll upgrade.
Or your current one will break, and you'll need a new one.  Maybe there is a substantial shift in the charging technology that the old chargers can't do.  When you get a new electric car, it may come with this new charger.

I wouldn't say there is a substantial network at the moment though, as the uptake of electric cars just isn't there yet. It's coming though

And we're talking about 10 years into the future.  This technology isn't static.

 

Also, if you've already got a wall charger fitted, then that's most of the hard work done.  If you need to change in the future, I imagine it's only three wires to change to a new box?  You'll have either a seperate fuse box or cable to a junction box from your fuse box to the wall box, turn the power off, disconnect and connect the new one.  So it's hardly going to be a massive cost to upgrade, and can possibly be negotiated into the cost of the new car or lease?

 

Even this charger at about £300 can have schedules to suit when you have cheaper electricity.
https://www.smarthomecharge.co.uk/chargers/project-ev/growatt-eva/#chargerFeatures

If you're using cheaper electricity, this usually means that there is less demand from the network, and seeing as renewable energy is cheaper to produce than dirty energy, stands to reason that you're using that renewable to charge your car.

Edited December 11, 2020 by soopah

[Janus 28]

Talks have begun regarding construction of a 20bn nuclear plant. Unsure if the anticipated extra demand from EV'S has prompted anything?  Nuclear power plants have been discussed previously, and companies have pulled out.

 This should be a big help if ever it gets the green light. I think there will be a lot against the idea, just like the extra airport runway/terminal and the high speed rail construction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55299511
 

[the_bloke 17]

On 11/12/2020 at 09:30, soopah said:

 

America have been doing it for years.  You can get kits to rebuild  the drive battery in Leafs and Prius for relatively little money.  So the age of cars and battery packs isn't much of a worry. 

Define 'little money'. 

[alchresearch 214]

1 hour ago, the_bloke said:

Define 'little money'. 

https://hackaday.com/2020/10/23/battery-swap-gives-nissan-leaf-new-lease-on-life/

 

About £2000.

[the_bloke 17]

18 minutes ago, alchresearch said:

https://hackaday.com/2020/10/23/battery-swap-gives-nissan-leaf-new-lease-on-life/

 

About £2000.

Reading the comments on that article, the car having the battery replaced was 8 years old; whilst that was for the sake of the article, the comments point out that by the time the car would have been 10-12 years old it would have needed all new batteries anyway. So in a simplified view, every pure EV car is going to be scrap by the time it's 12 years old, as they'll all need a minimum 2 grand expenditure on new batteries and will be either uneconomic to repair or unsellable second hand unless they sell for peanuts.

 

The selling for peanuts thing is interesting either, as it basically means the cost of a 12 year old second hand EV in years to come (when lots are on the market) will be incredibly low due to them all needing new batteries, which means EV's are going to have frightening depreciation rates. Something to factor in if you are planning on buying one in the next few years on finance.

[El Cid 214]

17 minutes ago, the_bloke said:

Reading the comments on that article, the car having the battery replaced was 8 years old; whilst that was for the sake of the article, the comments point out that by the time the car would have been 10-12 years old it would have needed all new batteries anyway. So in a simplified view, every pure EV car is going to be scrap by the time it's 12 years old, as they'll all need a minimum 2 grand expenditure on new batteries and will be either uneconomic to repair or unsellable second hand unless they sell for peanuts.

 

The selling for peanuts thing is interesting either, as it basically means the cost of a 12 year old second hand EV in years to come (when lots are on the market) will be incredibly low due to them all needing new batteries, which means EV's are going to have frightening depreciation rates. Something to factor in if you are planning on buying one in the next few years on finance.

I would not interpret it like that. Its 8 years old and does not need new batteries, that is good and the costs will reduce.

There is the batteries and the motor, replacing the batteries will make it like new again, if the motor is ok.

Many cars new a new timing belt around the same age, which can be £500 and then there are all the other things which can go wrong.

Not saying that I will buy one just yet, better the devil you know 

[ads36 214]

as above...

 

timing belt : hundreds

exhaust : hundreds

clutch : hundreds

 

you can easily spend well over a grand on a 'normal' car to keep it running past 10years.

 

and that's before you think about things like water pumps, head gaskets, steering racks, etc. which i have personally encountered...

[geared 303]

Well to be fair you'll still have a steering rack thats just as likely to fail in an EV so it's not a problem just of traditional cars.

 

I seem to remember the batteries on Tesla's are particularly hardy, something like 10% or less degradation over 100,000 miles?

 

  

1 hour ago, alchresearch said:

https://hackaday.com/2020/10/23/battery-swap-gives-nissan-leaf-new-lease-on-life/

 

About £2000.

 

 

Thats very good news, I'd seen one thing online about a Spanish company that would refurb or even upgrade Leaf batteries, but saw £10,000 mentioned and baulked.

Edited December 16, 2020 by geared

[ECCOnoob 1,021]

18 minutes ago, ads36 said:

as above...

 

timing belt : hundreds

exhaust : hundreds

clutch : hundreds

 

you can easily spend well over a grand on a 'normal' car to keep it running past 10years.

 

and that's before you think about things like water pumps, head gaskets, steering racks, etc. which i have personally encountered...

Well up until recently I had a 10-year old petrol car and didn't need to buy any of those. My mother still has a 13-year old car and purchased nothing more than some replacement wiper blades.  

 

I know I've said earlier that we are the age of the throwaway culture and that is trickling down to our motor cars but are we really now at the point of simply laying back and accepting that there will be planned obsolescence leaving no alternative but a vastly expensive replacement which  punishes those who drive electric vehicles.   

 

£2,000 is certainly not an insignificant amount of money and depending on the model that a person owns could be more than a quarter of the entire value of a new car. That's in anyone's mine is simply ridiculous.

 

10 years ago in the car world is 59/10 plate. Have a look around. How many cars and vans are still happily driving around with barely a fault. Even when they do have faults spares for the majority of mainstream vehicles are cheap and plentiful. The skills needed to repair them are widespread.

 

Whilst I fully appreciate that we all have to start somewhere, the fact remains that until such position applies to electric vehicles the 'masses' are simply not going to entertain them.

 

EV needs to be far far more encouraged, promoted and attracted to those well beyond the cliquey bubble of the yuppie London set and a few pretentious Tesla owners. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by ECCOnoob

[geared 303]

  

23 minutes ago, ads36 said:

as above...

 

timing belt : hundreds

exhaust : hundreds

clutch : hundreds

 

you can easily spend well over a grand on a 'normal' car to keep it running past 10years.

 

and that's before you think about things like water pumps, head gaskets, steering racks, etc. which i have personally encountered...

 

 

6 minutes ago, ECCOnoob said:

Well up until recently I had a 10-year old petrol car and didn't need to buy any of those. My mother still has a  13-year old car and purchased nothing more than some replacement wiper blades.  

 

 

I've very recently done most of the above on my 10 year old car, and due to poor luck it all wanted doing within the space of a few weeks.😢😢😢😢

Ended up being near 2 grand all said and done.

 

The crumb of comfort was most jobs were just service items that were due to be changed, short of the turbo going pop the car should be good for several years more motoring.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by geared

[the_bloke 17]

20 minutes ago, ads36 said:

as above...

 

timing belt : hundreds

exhaust : hundreds

clutch : hundreds

 

you can easily spend well over a grand on a 'normal' car to keep it running past 10years.

 

and that's before you think about things like water pumps, head gaskets, steering racks, etc. which i have personally encountered...

To echo the post above, I've never had to buy any of those things on a ten year old car. Not every car even has a timing belt that needs replacing. The difference I'm trying to point out, is that an old EV car will need a new set of batteries, costing thousands. The equivalent age petrol or diesel car may or may not need work doing to it, and no one will buy a second hard 10 year old car in the knowledge that you need to cough up 2 grand on it as soon as you own it - you'd walk away from it unless it was something very special or something very very cheap.

[soopah 17]

3 hours ago, alchresearch said:

https://hackaday.com/2020/10/23/battery-swap-gives-nissan-leaf-new-lease-on-life/

 

About £2000.

Prius for example, when you lift the lid off the battery pack is arranged in individual cells.
You can have the dead cells replaced without replacing the whole unit.  Currenly sitting at about £50ish a cell.