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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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5 hours ago, Longcol said:

Based on what information?

 

Should they get vaccinated per the vast majority of health experts? 

Depends who’s paying the “health experts”.

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17 hours ago, Chekhov said:

What about  this "new variant" ? :

1 - If it really does evade the vaccines it's a pity more people (pref vaccinated if over about 45) hadn't caught Covid earlier in the year and got natural immunity from that.

2 - If it does't evade the vaccines there's nothing to worry about.

Either way more suppression is not only not needed, it may even be counter productive. 

Ffter all teh scaremongering with, the Manaus variant, the Kent variant, and then the Indian variant, how thoroughly predictable :

 

Covid: New Omicron variant [is] not a disaster, says Sage scientist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59442141

The Omicron Covid variant is "not a disaster" and some people may be "hugely overstating the situation", a scientist advising the government says.

 

Question : How many false alarms are we going to have before people just stop going off alarming....

16 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

You seem to have misremembered the 1 in 450 or at least I couldn't see it. Be that as it may we now know this paper's conclusions are junk because the population fatality rate for many countries now exceeds his computed infection fatality rate and by some margin. This should never happen!

The 1 in 450 IFR figure was for countries with young age profiles, where have you seen stats which say it is lower (i.e. worse) ?

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15 hours ago, Longcol said:

And the NHS would have been totally overwhelmed............................................

That argument has long since lost any credibility.I am not going to go through years of my life (possibly forever the way some people talk) worrying if the NHS is going to be overwhelmed, particularly after they have bought this one out regularly every year anyway.

As it happens, at the moment, there are 7633 people in hospital with a positive covid test, though that includes many people who are not actually in hospital with Covid, they just happen to test positive. In January it peaked at 39,254, over 5X higher.....

 

Incidentally, whilst we're on about hospitalisations :

 

England : No mask mandate since July, no vaccine passport
Scotland : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 1st Oct (enforced since 18th Oct)
Wales : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 11th Oct

 

Patients in hospital with a positive Covid test per million popn (26 Nov 21)
England : 106 (i.e the lowest...)
Scotland : 133
Wales : 1648

 

(Populations : Eng = 56.4m, Scotland = 5.5m, Wales = 3.2m)

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

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11 hours ago, *_ash_* said:

1 - The virus was rife everywhere long before any vaccines, in particular in places with close proximity of large numbers of people... highly populated towns/cities, most of Europe, Brazil's highly populated areas, etc. USA. rank amongst the worst. 

But, natural immunity and indeed vaccines we also know don't last against this particular constantly changing virus. 

It has been established that natural infection provides better immunity, certainly longer lasting and, they reckon, it will be more resilient to any variants, though, to be fair, vaccines still work fine at preventing serious illness  with all known variants.

Fortunately, ironically, you can still catch Covid (but not usually as badly) even after being vaccinated* . It is arguably fortunate, in some ways, because they can then develop the better immunity of a natural infection.

 

The Times 30 Aug 21 P16 :

Past infection "gives more protection" [than vaccines]

......The study found that people who had tested positive for Covid were less likely to become infected, ill, or need hospital treatment with the Delta strain than those who had two doses of the Pfizer vaccine but no previous infection.

Those who received two shots of the Pfizer vaccine were 13 times more likely to have breakthrough infection of the Delta variant then those who had had a Covid infection in Jan or Feb this year.

Dr Charlotte Thalin, a Swedish immunology researcher, said it was a "textbook" example of how natural immunity is really better that vaccination.

 

* In fact nearly all the people I know who have caught Covid have been vaccinated

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There absolutely no irony in catching covid after vaccination.

 

The National Institute for Health study shows vaccine providing better protection to variants .

 

 

 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Chekhov said:
17 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

You seem to have misremembered the 1 in 450 or at least I couldn't see it. Be that as it may we now know this paper's conclusions are junk because the population fatality rate for many countries now exceeds his computed infection fatality rate and by some margin. This should never happen!

The 1 in 450 IFR figure was for countries with young age profiles, where have you seen stats which say it is lower (i.e. worse) ?

Have you actually read/ skimmed the paper you linked to?

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1 hour ago, Chekhov said:

That argument has long since lost any credibility.I am not going to go through years of my life (possibly forever the way some people talk) worrying if the NHS is going to be overwhelmed, particularly after they have bought this one out regularly every year anyway.

As it happens, at the moment, there are 7633 people in hospital with a positive covid test, though that includes many people who are not actually in hospital with Covid, they just happen to test positive. In January it peaked at 39,254, over 5X higher.....

 

Incidentally, whilst we're on about hospitalisations :

 

England : No mask mandate since July, no vaccine passport
Scotland : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 1st Oct (enforced since 18th Oct)
Wales : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 11th Oct

 

Patients in hospital with a positive Covid test per million popn (26 Nov 21)
England : 106 (i.e the lowest...)
Scotland : 133
Wales : 1648

 

(Populations : Eng = 56.4m, Scotland = 5.5m, Wales = 3.2m)

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Shows how effective the vaccine has been.

7 hours ago, top4718 said:

Depends who’s paying the “health experts”.

You mean the ones who convinced Boris into lockdown in March 20 when he originally wanted to let the virus rip?

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25 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Have you actually read/ skimmed the paper you linked to?

As a relatively newcomer to the thread has Chekhov read much of the thousand pages or so of  past comments and references?

Basically never the twain shall meet,but I am happy to say that the twain is represented by 90%/10% in favour of the vaccine.

There is little if any evidence that either side is swayed by the other  so as we progress into the third part of this subject the basic issue remains that in the U.K. it remains your choice.

Every day is a school day

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13 minutes ago, RJRB said:
38 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Have you actually read/ skimmed the paper you linked to?

As a relatively newcomer to the thread has Chekhov read much of the thousand pages or so of  past comments and references?

We have seen the pattern where a poster makes a comment and links to supposedly supporting material which the poster has not in fact read ... a lot. Tops used to do it a lot. He was copy-and-pasting from covid sceptic sites and often he had not understood even the material on the covid sceptic site. Of course, one should be more forgiving if it is a mere one-off slip as opposed to systematic bad behaviour.

 

I tend to give posters the benefit of the doubt when they first post though I am prepared to go to the other extreme and talk nonsense as a way of "mocking" posters once it becomes clear they really are behaving badly as opposed to for example making mistakes. I put mocking in inverted commas because is it really mocking when both parties are in fact transparently speaking nonsense?

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12 minutes ago, petemcewan said:

Another variant .

Are we going to go to plan "B" ?

Right now? No, I do not think the new variant weighs in that calculation ... at the moment. I see our current situation as precarious with a lot healthcare capacity being lost to covid and a concern that the situation could potentially rapidly deteriorate but that is because of delta.

 

The stuff on the new variant is largely speculative although the travel restrictions seem reasonable. There are lots of mutations, particularly in the spike protein so it creates a worry about vaccine effectiveness but interestingly the variant has first appeared in southern Africa where there is less evolutionary pressure from vaccine-induced immunity so I would be equally worried about loss of infection-induced immunity.

Edited by Carbuncle

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21 minutes ago, RJRB said:

...There is little if any evidence that either side is swayed by the other ...

That's the essential point, isn't it?  Though it's a continued source of bafflement and concern why anyone would be swayed, or even consider being swayed,  by medical or scientific information from internet randoms armed with YouTube videos and links to Facebook.   It's a bizarre and dangerous mix of wilful ignorance, obstinacy and arrogance, mixed with a generous sprinkling of Dunning-Kruger and a whiff of troll.

 

Folk in this thread still fighting to point to reliable sources, and countering point after absurd point, are either seasoned masochists - in which case, knock yourself out - or have patience usually only found in those used to dealing with caffeinated toddlers.  No one is listening; no one wants to listen.  It's a lost cause.  Give it up.

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