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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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9 hours ago, sibon said:

Infections are surging in schools at the moment. Last week over 10% of students were absent nationally. That’s more than double the long term average rate. In the North West, things are even worse:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jun/22/quarter-of-a-million-children-in-england-missed-school-last-week-due-to-covid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Not surprising if we force children to isolate when they’re not ill though is it?

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9 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Not surprising if we force children to isolate when they’re not ill though is it?

I agree. I’m sure that testing would be a better way to go about things. I think that will be the strategy in the autumn. 

 

However, according to the link I posted, there are 25000 infections amongst those absent. Which is a lot and is also a huge problem in terms of potential future cases.

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Posted (edited)
On 22/06/2021 at 14:46, Thirsty Relic said:

Hancock told us months ago that the manufacturers had developed new vaccines that were more resistant to variants than the vaccines currently in use, and they were to be rolled out in the Autumn.   Nowhere did I hear any suggestion that the new vaccines should be used for peoples 1st or 2nd jabs (as would make sense), but then that would be criticism of the rollout, and we know that is not allowed!

 

I find it interesting that it all went quiet for a while after that, until now.  Perhaps with almost all age-groups being vaccinated and we are about to open up  on the 19th July, now is about right to pass out the bad news that we'll all need more jabs if we want to be seen as "fully vaccinated" against the new variants, as the ones we've been told do work against variants,... well they don't work as well as these new ones!

Moderna has some trial results for a modified vaccine against the delta variant which are detailed in a preprint:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256716v1 . I do not think either of Pfizer or AstraZeneca is doing trials on a modified vaccine yet. [Correction: I should have said beta (rather than delta) variant. My thanks to @apelike for pointing this out below.]

 

These are my SPECULATIONS on the matter:

 

1. If you (the UK government) want a sample of vaccine which has been tailored to induce immunity against (the spike protein of) a new variant (eg the delta variant) you can  have it within a week ... but you won't want to use it because it won't have been tested.

2. If you want a vaccine against a new variant with some testing then you could run a trial with say a thousand people. After a couple of months you would hopefully know nobody had keeled over and what proportion of people were making an immune response (antibodies and T cells). You would not however know how effective the vaccine is at preventing disease although you would be able to make the reasonable guess that it should be quite effective.

3. If you want good data about how effective a new vaccine is versus the current vaccine is then you are going to need a big trial with tens (hundreds?) of thousands of participants split blindly into two groups at random (new vaccine vs current vaccine). Then you will have to wait months and months while trial participants get sick (or not) after which you will have a good idea of relative efficacies but events may well have moved on while you were doing the trial.

 

In the future I am guessing people might well get booster shots based on scenario 2. data but personally, if I were the decision maker, I would not switch out the current vaccines for modified vaccines based on scenario 2. data even if the option were available at the present moment.

 

Quite a lot of speculation there. What do others think?

Edited by Carbuncle
Correction of error.

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7 hours ago, makapaka said:

Not surprising if we force children to isolate when they’re not ill though is it?

True. 

Do you remember the "Act like you got the virus" ad campaign? 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

Moderna has some trial results for a modified vaccine against the delta variant which are detailed in a preprint:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256716v1 . I do not think either of Pfizer or AstraZeneca is doing trials on a modified vaccine yet.

These were not trials against the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) that was discovered in India though but for the Beta variant (B.1.351) that was discovered in South Africa and the P.1 variant/s that was discovered in Brazil.

 

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

These are my SPECULATIONS on the matter:

 

1. If you (the UK government) want a sample of vaccine which has been tailored to induce immunity against (the spike protein of) a new variant (eg the delta variant) you can  have it within a week ... but you won't want to use it because it won't have been tested.

2. If you want a vaccine against a new variant with some testing then you could run a trial with say a thousand people. After a couple of months you would hopefully know nobody had keeled over and what proportion of people were making an immune response (antibodies and T cells). You would not however know how effective the vaccine is at preventing disease although you would be able to make the reasonable guess that it should be quite effective.

3. If you want good data about how effective a new vaccine is versus the current vaccine is then you are going to need a big trial with tens (hundreds?) of thousands of participants split blindly into two groups at random (new vaccine vs current vaccine). Then you will have to wait months and months while trial participants get sick (or not) after which you will have a good idea of relative efficacies but events may well have moved on while you were doing the trial.

 

In the future I am guessing people might well get booster shots based on scenario 2. data but personally, if I were the decision maker, I would not switch out the current vaccines for modified vaccines based on scenario 2. data even if the option were available at the present moment.

 

Quite a lot of speculation there. What do others think?

As the current vaccines are reported as still doing a good job in protecting people against the new variants around I stand by what I said earlier. Given that variants seem to be developing on an on going basis producing or tweaking a vaccine at this present time for the current ones we know about is a bit pointless as it will then need to be tweaked again to cope with any emerging new variants.

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I heard a delta plus variant mentioned on the wireless. 

 

What fresh hell is this then?

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13 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

I heard a delta plus variant mentioned on the wireless. 

 

What fresh hell is this then?

New Santander card?

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1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

I heard a delta plus variant mentioned on the wireless. 

 

What fresh hell is this then?

It’s the new one you’re supposed to panic about until the next new one.

 

this new one will do for the 19 July date and push us nicely onto the autumn when we can have another lockdown through the winter. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, makapaka said:

It’s the new one you’re supposed to panic about until the next new one.

I think panic is about right with all of it to be honest.

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2 hours ago, makapaka said:

It’s the new one you’re supposed to panic about until the next new one.

 

 

 

Who's 'panicking' - I'm just hacked off with the whole 'end of the world' rhetoric we keep hearing, and the crazy restrictions.

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28 minutes ago, RollingJ said:

Who's 'panicking' - I'm just hacked off with the whole 'end of the world' rhetoric we keep hearing, and the crazy restrictions.

The governments and businesses that's who. Most people are just like you and me and fed up with the end of the world scenario and scare mongering in the press, yes and also the crazy restrictions and laws.

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