Coronavirus - Part Two.

[top4718 838]

2 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

 

 

Daily cases are doubling twice (quadrupling) roughly every 3 weeks (eg see Our World in Data website, set the y-scale to log to help estimate doubling times). The end of August is about 11 weeks away, so if we could keep the doublings up (we can't) we could increase daily cases by a factor of  (over) 125 ... which would be (over) a million cases a day since current rates are about 8,000 cases per day.  Such is the arithmetic of exponential growth. IF we have a lockdown to control the third wave then I think it will need to come a lot sooner. The government (Boris?) would like the third wave to run its course and blow itself out through herd immunity, acquired either through vaccination or infection. If hospitalization or death rates are going to be so high as to make this plan untenable the sooner this is realised the better.

All the current statistics are below SAGE’s proposed criteria for safe opening on the 21st but if the rumours are true then why aren’t we?

 

What has been the point of vaccinations if rates are doubling twice every three weeks?

[butlers 261]

Isn't it only half the population has full vaccination or immunity from previous infection.

Pfizer/ biontic only 30 percent protection after first jab ,up to 90 after the 2nd

[Carbuncle 0]

3 minutes ago, top4718 said:

What has been the point of vaccinations if rates are doubling twice every three weeks?

Death and serious illness is lower in the vaccinated.

[Guest makapaka]

5 minutes ago, top4718 said:

All the current statistics are below SAGE’s proposed criteria for safe opening on the 21st but if the rumours are true then why aren’t we?

 

What has been the point of vaccinations if rates are doubling twice every three weeks?

Cos they obviously don’t work as well as they thought after one dose especially.

 

be lockdown late August and school openings delayed etc  maybe before.

Edited June 13, 2021 by makapaka

[butlers 261]

At the rate of vaccinations now and the priority given to the most vunerable ,I really really don't see any meaningful lockdowns after the current restrictions go.

A big hump of people sorted in next 4 weeks and it's done, the seesaw tipped to as good as is reasonable to expect

[top4718 838]

11 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Death and serious illness is lower in the vaccinated.

Death and serious illness has never been a major factor for people who have no pre-existing conditions and under 75 years old. With many vaxxed the threat has to have lessened further, why are SAGE now ignoring there own criteria.

[Carbuncle 0]

2 minutes ago, butlers said:

At the rate of vaccinations now and the priority given to the most vunerable ,I really really don't see any meaningful lockdowns after the current restrictions go.

Maybe ... but there have been 70 million doses put in arms which is 60 million doses short of 2 for every member of the population. The last number I saw was 1.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine arriving per week and it is after all the Pfizer (or Moderna) vaccine that is needed for the younger unvaccinated part of the population.

[top4718 838]

5 minutes ago, butlers said:

At the rate of vaccinations now and the priority given to the most vunerable ,I really really don't see any meaningful lockdowns after the current restrictions go.

A big hump of people sorted in next 4 weeks and it's done, the seesaw tipped to as good as is reasonable to expect

We were saying this about the 21st June, it’s not happening.

[Carbuncle 0]

2 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Death and serious illness has never been a major factor for people who have no pre-existing conditions and under 75 years old.

You are using your own alternative facts again.

[butlers 261]

Barely tethered nonsense 

[Carbuncle 0]

3 minutes ago, butlers said:

Barely tethered nonsense 

Tethered? @top4718 is free, there is no truth that can tether him.

[Annie Bynnol 612]

1 hour ago, top4718 said:

The vaccine administered to the elderly did that, nothing else was needed after that was done months ago.

40 million+ people have cared enough to protect you.

You should thank them.