Jump to content
We’re excited to announce the forum is under new management! Details to follow.

Coronavirus - Part Two.

Recommended Posts

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Transport thinks the COVID19 crisis is all over, he has gone on holiday to Spain with his family!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spanish press reporting that the true death toll in Spain is likely to be 60% higher than reported, taking it to a level almost the same as the UK - with 20 million less population than the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, the_bloke said:

Spanish press reporting that the true death toll in Spain is likely to be 60% higher than reported, taking it to a level almost the same as the UK - with 20 million less population than the UK.

Probably not:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-cases-ons-pandemic-statistics-a9581076.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, El Cid said:

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Transport thinks the COVID19 crisis is all over, he has gone on holiday to Spain with his family!

Reported to have received warning of pending isolation on return but still travelled because he didn’t want to be seen as having privileged information. Now said to be coming back early to do his 14 day isolation 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arnold Lane,

I hope the following answers some of your questions.

 

It's only a small trial .But it contains  good news.

Right at the end is reference to Historical Group control.

 

I can only guess at an answer to your  question about the 30yr. old.

There may be some problems with that person's immune system like low levels of CD4, CD8  cells, that predisposes a person to getting a severe infection.

 

The Randomised Placebo Control Trial is the gold standard. But it's not the only way of doing trials.

I'm biased towards  the no placebo approach because people get active treatment .

 

 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9490

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Arnold Lane,

I hope the following answers some of your questions.

 

It's only a small trial .But it contains  good news.

Right at the end is reference to Historical Group control.

 

I can only guess at an answer to your  question about the 30yr. old.

There may be some problems with that person's immune system like low levels of CD4, CD8  cells, that predisposes a person to getting a severe infection.

 

The Randomised Placebo Control Trial is the gold standard. But it's not the only way of doing trials.

I'm biased towards  the no placebo approach because people get active treatment .

 

 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9490

 

 

 

 

 

Pete, that is about treating patients with Covid.  
 

You said to dump the placebo arm of vaccine trials.  
 

Why are the scientists involved in developing a vaccine in the UK not using a historic control group instead of placebo?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Arnold_Lane said:

Pete, that is about treating patients with Covid.  
 

You said to dump the placebo arm of vaccine trials.  
 

Why are the scientists involved in developing a vaccine in the UK not using a historic control group instead of placebo?

I can answer that for you, if you didn't already know the answer;

 

A Historic Control Group is made of solid unquestionable data from subjects given placebos in previous clinical trials. It needs a considerable number of subjects in order to provide enough data to be relied upon which matches the subjects used in any future trial, which can take years to amass.

 

This is a brand new vaccine for a brand new virus. There is no historical data to draw upon.  You can't just pluck subjects out of previous trials for similar but different viruses and vaccines to be your control group, your outcome won't live up to scrutiny and would be a waste of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 26 July 2020 at 14:14, tinfoilhat said:

(...)

 

That said I think the UK government made the right decision, but, as ever, it's going to be half cocked because nobody will be monitoring returning holiday makers.

The UK government made this decision after Spain had the temerity to chat directly and constructively with the Gibraltarian government about 'what happens from 1st January 2021' last week.

 

The UK ambassador in Madrid wasn't warned before the decision.

 

Nothing to do with Covid, or the decision being 'right' (because the UK has such a clean bill of health right now /s). Just punishment (or applied Brexit pressure, take your pick: same difference, as viewed from the continent).

Edited by L00b

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, L00b said:

The UK government made this decision after Spain had the temerity to chat directly and constructively with the Gibraltarian government about 'what happens from 1st January 2021' last week.

 

The UK ambassador in Madrid wasn't warned before the decision.

 

Nothing to do with Covid, or the decision being 'right' (because the UK has such a clean bill of health right now /s). Just punishment (or applied Brexit pressure, take your pick: same difference, as viewed from the continent).

Well without the Brits, the Costa's would suffer a hell of a financial battering.  The UK make up by far the largest group of tourists, 18 million last year, nearly double that of the French & Germans combined. 

Edited by Baron99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Baron99 said:

Well without the Brits, the Costa's would suffer a hell of a financial battering.  The UK make up by far the largest group of tourists, 18 million last year, nearly double that of the French & Germans combined. 

That it would (more so absent the EU Covid rescue package, less so now).

 

And yet, still no more sign of Spanish hoteliers coming to the Brexiting UK rescue, than German car manufacturers or French cheese makers or Italian prosecco bottlers.

 

But we digress. 

 

Back to Covid, and it's mildly amusing to witness HMG's (Covid-) hospital mocking the Continental (Covid-) charity yet again. Their gaslighting over Spain's 2nd wave may score some good political points at home,  but it fools noone abroad, and it's definitely not a wise political move with Continental stakeholders who are keeping scores.

Edited by L00b

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

LOL inventive and humorous proof that masks do work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 27/07/2020 at 07:59, Baron99 said:

Well generally, in most cases you're going to already know where your work colleagues have been on holiday as they'll have probably mentioned beforehand where they were going.

 

This latest requirement to quarantine once back in the UK because of hotspots breaking out abroad seems to have taken everyone by surprise but look back & double check to a few weeks ago, to when the Govt eased travel restrictions. 

 

The clear message, which many appear to have missed in their rush to book holidays was that the situation was fluid & the Govt would not hesitate to reimpose regulations, including having people quarantine on return to the UK. 

 

There is news this morning that both France & Germany could possibly be added to the list alongside Spain? 

As mentioned yesterday, Germany is seeing a spike in cases all of a sudden & the Germans are now being asked to wear face coverings outside where they can't stay 1.5m apart. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53566880?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c77jz3md4rdt/germany&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

"We are in the middle of a rapidly developing pandemic," Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), told reporters.

 

Mr Wieler said Germans had become "negligent" and urged people to wear masks and respect social distancing and hygiene rules."

 

How long before they are added to the quarantine list? 

 

Edited by Baron99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.