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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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Right thing to do, but it just makes the whole thing going away seem that bit further away.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, andyofborg said:

Looking back over the last 40 years, I can't say I've come across many in the UK who say that  

 

Anyway, we have a number of other threads where we can discuss the governments occasional success and many failures, back to the pandemic........

 

Are we shocked? surprised? happy? sad? resigned to our fate? about our new lockdown? 

Looking at the guidelines I can only see my support bubble (another single person households) outside so it looks as though I’m back to solitary confinement. Not exactly happy but just have to grin (or grimace) and bear it.  Hopefully Boris’ optimism will bear fruit and I’ll be vaccinated by mid Feb

Edited by catmiss
Typo

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8 hours ago, catmiss said:

Looking at the guidelines I can only see my support bubble (another single person households) outside so it looks as though I’m back to solitary confinement. Not exactly happy but just have to grin (or grimace) and bear it.  Hopefully Boris’ optimism will bear fruit and I’ll be vaccinated by mid Feb

No

 

You can still meet your support bubble inside, as you are part of of the household you have formed the bubble with.

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Enntee,


Quote taken from the link I provided.

 

 

This contradicts   a lot of received wisdom that supports asymptomatics being a significant vector in the spreading of Covid-19.

Note: BMJ ,12-20%

Quote

 

 

The citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan recruited nearly 10 million people, and found no newly confirmed cases with COVID-19. The detection rate of asymptomatic positive cases was very low, and there was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts. There were no asymptomatic positive cases in 96.4% of the residential communities.

 

Editorials

Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4851 (Published 21 December 2020)Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m4851
 
 
  1. Allyson M Pollock, professor of public health1,  
  2. James Lancaster, independent researcher2
  1. Author affiliations
  1. Correspondence to: A M Pollock Allyson.Pollock@newcastle.ac.uk

What we know, and what we don’t

The UK’s £100bn “Operation Moonshot” to roll out mass testing for covid-19 to cities and universities around the country raises two key questions. How infectious are people who test positive but have no symptoms? And, what is their contribution to transmission of live virus?

Unusually in disease management, a positive test result is the sole criterion for a covid-19 case. Normally, a test is a support for clinical diagnosis, not a substitute. This lack of clinical oversight means we know very little about the proportions of people with positive results who are truly asymptomatic throughout the course of their infection and the proportions who are paucisymptomatic (subclinical), presymptomatic (go on to develop symptoms later), or post-infection (with viral RNA fragments still detectable from an earlier infection).

Earlier estimates that 80% of infections are asymptomatic were too high and have since been revised down to between 17% and 20% of people with infections.12 Studies estimating this proportion are limited by heterogeneity in case definitions, incomplete symptom assessment, and inadequate retrospective and prospective follow-up of symptoms, however.3 Around 49% of people initially defined as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.45

It’s also unclear to what extent people with no symptoms transmit SARS-CoV-2. The only test for live virus is viral culture. PCR and lateral flow tests do not distinguish live virus. No test of infection or infectiousness is currently available for routine use.678 As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious.9

The relations between viral load, viral shedding, infection, infectiousness, and duration of infectiousness are not well understood. In a recent systematic review, no study was able to culture live virus from symptomatic participants after the ninth day of illness, despite persistently high viral loads in quantitative PCR diagnostic tests. However, cycle threshold (Ct) values from PCR tests are not direct measures of viral load and are subject to error.10

While viral load seems to be similar in people with and without symptoms, the presence of RNA does not necessarily represent transmissible live virus. The duration of viral RNA shedding (interval between first and last positive PCR result for any sample) is shorter in people who remain asymptomatic, so they are probably less infectious than people who develop symptoms.11

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2 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Enntee,


Quote taken from the link I provided.

 

 

This contradicts   a lot of received wisdom that supports asymptomatics being a significant vector in the spreading of Covid-19.

Note: BMJ ,12-20%

Editorials

Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4851 (Published 21 December 2020)Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m4851
 
 
  1. Allyson M Pollock, professor of public health1,  
  2. James Lancaster, independent researcher2
  1. Author affiliations
  1. Correspondence to: A M Pollock Allyson.Pollock@newcastle.ac.uk

What we know, and what we don’t

The UK’s £100bn “Operation Moonshot” to roll out mass testing for covid-19 to cities and universities around the country raises two key questions. How infectious are people who test positive but have no symptoms? And, what is their contribution to transmission of live virus?

Unusually in disease management, a positive test result is the sole criterion for a covid-19 case. Normally, a test is a support for clinical diagnosis, not a substitute. This lack of clinical oversight means we know very little about the proportions of people with positive results who are truly asymptomatic throughout the course of their infection and the proportions who are paucisymptomatic (subclinical), presymptomatic (go on to develop symptoms later), or post-infection (with viral RNA fragments still detectable from an earlier infection).

Earlier estimates that 80% of infections are asymptomatic were too high and have since been revised down to between 17% and 20% of people with infections.12 Studies estimating this proportion are limited by heterogeneity in case definitions, incomplete symptom assessment, and inadequate retrospective and prospective follow-up of symptoms, however.3 Around 49% of people initially defined as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.45

It’s also unclear to what extent people with no symptoms transmit SARS-CoV-2. The only test for live virus is viral culture. PCR and lateral flow tests do not distinguish live virus. No test of infection or infectiousness is currently available for routine use.678 As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious.9

The relations between viral load, viral shedding, infection, infectiousness, and duration of infectiousness are not well understood. In a recent systematic review, no study was able to culture live virus from symptomatic participants after the ninth day of illness, despite persistently high viral loads in quantitative PCR diagnostic tests. However, cycle threshold (Ct) values from PCR tests are not direct measures of viral load and are subject to error.10

While viral load seems to be similar in people with and without symptoms, the presence of RNA does not necessarily represent transmissible live virus. The duration of viral RNA shedding (interval between first and last positive PCR result for any sample) is shorter in people who remain asymptomatic, so they are probably less infectious than people who develop symptoms.11

It would be helpful to find out what you are actually trying to say.

Quotes from unknown (to us) third parties mean nothing at all.

It's a well known known fact that even among fully qualified experts, you can always find opposing views so how do you know which one to support.

No posters on this forum are experts in virology so we should be as careful as we can and follow the advice - Hands, Face, Space until we get on top of it.

No matter how virulent the virus, it would not spread if everyone stuck to the rules.

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16 hours ago, andyofborg said:

I doubt they do believe every word the government says, or support their every action, though open criticism tends to have unfortunate consequences. 

 

A few months ago there were interviews in the Times with Uighur exiles. They said chinese friends they had simply would not believe their stories about what was done to them and their families....sounds pretty brainwashed to me.

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5 hours ago, Cade Foster said:

No

 

You can still meet your support bubble inside, as you are part of of the household you have formed the bubble with.

Thanks, that’s great news

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Watching the traffic out of my front window, there's not much "staying at home" going on.

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3 minutes ago, RiffRaff said:

Watching the traffic out of my front window, there's not much "staying at home" going on.

Lockdown doesn't come into effect until tomorrow (Wednesday 6th Jan 2021.)

 

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2 minutes ago, Anna B said:

Lockdown doesn't come into effect until tomorrow (Wednesday 6th Jan 2021.)

 

It started at midnight.

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To be honest, we have never really been out of it since last march.  :gag:

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Posted (edited)

TalkRadio, home of the execrable Julia Hartley Brewer and Mike Graham, amongst other right wing, hate mongering COVID deniers, has been kicked off You Tube.

 

You Tube haven't given a reason, though it is speculated that it is because TalkRadio presenters are consistently sharting COVID misinformation.

 

TalkRadio: YouTube kicks channel off its platform - BBC News

 

Lovely. The gammons that staff that radio station will be even angrier :thumbsup:

Edited by Mister M

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