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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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4 hours ago, MuteWitness said:

Doesn't feel like it can get much worse...went from thinking we could be tied 2 and go to work  and have some money to looking like another lockdown

It can’t get much worse, I agree. 
 

The good news is that it is going to get better by the late spring. One that Oxford vaccine is being deployed we are going to be in an improving situation.

 

So hang on in there, and do get your vaccine as soon as you can.

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Adjacent Open Access
 
 
 
 
 

COVID-19 mutation does not make virus more infectious

November 25, 2020
COVID-19 mutation, sars © Sdecoret

"Researchers at University College London (UCL) have found that COVID-19 mutations do not make the virus more likely to spread, as previously feared

There are currently 12,706 COVID-19 mutations. But none of them seem to make the virus more infectious.

First and corresponding author Dr Lucy van Dorp (UCL Genetics Institute) said: “The number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes being generated for scientific research is staggering. We realised early on in the pandemic that we needed new approaches to analyse enormous amounts of data in close to real time to flag new mutations in the virus that could affect its transmission or symptom severity.

“Fortunately, we found that none of these mutations are making COVID-19 spread more rapidly, but we need to remain vigilant and continue monitoring new mutations, particularly as vaccines get rolled out.”

UCL researchers led the analysis of virus genomes from over 46,000 people across 99 countries, who tested positive for COVID-19. The mutations documented did not seem to increase transmissibility in humans, meaning that the virus would not really increase in how infectious it currently is.

Three ways that COVID-19 has been mutating

Coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2 are a type of RNA virus, which can all develop mutations in three different ways: by mistake from copying errors during viral replication, through interactions with other viruses infecting the same cell (recombination or reassortment), or they can be induced by host RNA modification systems which are part of host immunity (e.g. a person’s own immune system).

Most mutations are neutral, while others can be advantageous or detrimental to the virus. Both neutral and advantageous mutations can become more common as they get passed down to descendant viruses.

How did the researchers know if transmission would be increased?

To test if the mutations increase transmission of the virus, the researchers modelled the virus’s evolutionary tree, and analysed whether a particular mutation was becoming increasingly common within a given branch of the evolutionary tree – that is, testing whether, after a mutation first develops in a virus, descendants of that virus outperform closely-related SARS-CoV-2 viruses without that particular mutation.

The researchers found no evidence that any of the common mutations are increasing the virus’s transmissibility. Instead, they found most common mutations are neutral for the virus. This includes one mutation in the virus spike protein called D614G, which has been widely reported as being a common mutation that may make the virus more transmissible. The new evidence finds that this mutation is in fact not associated with significantly increasing transmission."

 

Where did the current  variant spring from? The above article was written in November this year. What's going on?

 

This article says the opposite.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/a-mutation-may-have-made-covid-19-more-contagious?c=970164808003

 

My personal opinion is with this kind of science ....Well, you couldn't put a rocket on Mars.

 

Stay safe everybody. And have a good a Christmas as is safe to do.

Edited by petemcewan

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9 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

I'm in a similar boat, but I'm going to try and talk my mum from taking our "bubble" to my sister's. I'd rather write this Xmas off.

 

This is from the BBC website.

 

In England if you have formed a support bubble with another household, that counts as one household.

 

BBC News - Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375

 

I've also seen a picture of St Pancras station totally rammed at 7.30 this evening. That faster spreading variant is heading north.

Thanks for letting me know.

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1 hour ago, petemcewan said:
 

Where did the current  variant spring from? The above article was written in November this year. 

If you google N501Y, you will see that your copied headline does not refer to the mutation causing the Tier 4 decision.

Edited by enntee

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With regards to the news reports yesterday of stations like Kings Cross Rail Station, filled with people living in Tier 4, rammed with people wanting to travel all over the country, why are they selling tickets to facilitate the spread of the virus?

My understanding is that it's against the law to travel outside these areas unless it's for work or school. Of course people will lie, but people with suitcases....

Could British Transport Police be deployed to these stations to enforce the law, and help stop the spread of the virus?

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Enntee

 

Thank  you for that direction.

 

Quote

The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London.

How on earth did UCL miss that one ?

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1 hour ago, enntee said:

If you google N501Y, you will see that your copied headline does not refer to the mutation causing the Tier 4 decision.

Analysis of more than 25,000 viral sequences in the U.K. suggests that viruses with this mutation transmitted slightly faster and caused larger clusters of infections.

Slightly more does not sound like the 70% increase which I believe is what Boris said. How much is slightly, I dont know, its almost like they dont want us to know. But then we would be mad conspiracy theorists.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/a-mutation-may-have-made-covid-19-more-contagious?c=970164808003#Increased-infectivity

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2 hours ago, Mister M said:

With regards to the news reports yesterday of stations like Kings Cross Rail Station, filled with people living in Tier 4, rammed with people wanting to travel all over the country, why are they selling tickets to facilitate the spread of the virus?

My understanding is that it's against the law to travel outside these areas unless it's for work or school. Of course people will lie, but people with suitcases....

Could British Transport Police be deployed to these stations to enforce the law, and help stop the spread of the virus?

Are you expecting the ticket sellers to interrogate every purchaser to find out where, why and how they are going somewhere? Are we expecting the BTP officers to track them and follow them put them under surveillance for the rest of the week to evidence that they were not travelling for legitimate purposes? 

 

Let alone the change of rules on christmas not officially starting until midnight yesterday the courts would be inundated with people trying to overturn their punishments. It would be a lawyers dream.

 

It's not that simple. 

 

Edited by ECCOnoob

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18 minutes ago, ECCOnoob said:

Are you expecting the ticket sellers to interrogate every purchaser to find out where, why and how they are going somewhere? Are we expecting the BTP officers to track them and follow them put them under surveillance for the rest of the week to evidence that they were not travelling for legitimate purposes? 

 

Let alone the change of rules on christmas not officially starting until midnight yesterday the courts would be inundated with people trying to overturn their punishments. It would be a lawyers dream.

 

It's not that simple. 

 

Just been announced on LBC that British Transport Police will be deployed at train stations in Tier 4 areas to provide back up to ticket staff and challenge members of the public travelling from those stations.

 

Tier 4: Extra police in London to crack down on non-essential travel - LBC

 

Very sensible.:nod:

Edited by Mister M

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Although I am disappointed with the performance of Boris and Hancock throughout this virus pandemic and think that their reactions have been too slow and marred by U-turns, the fact is that the spread of this virus

is caused purely and simply by the action of ordinary citizens who, by their impatience, thoughtlessness and sheer stupidity,  are responsible for the large scale spread of Civid-19.

I walk for 90 minutes every day for health reasons and have worn a face mask every time I have left the house  and make sure that I am distancing from others.

I very rarely see anyone else wearing a mask except just before entering shops and I see lots of people every day day standing close to each other whilst chatting, including mothers at school gates, dog walkers, neighbours etc.

I consider it worth going to this trouble for the sake of members of my family and also the NHS and the well being of the general population.

Do others not care about their own loved ones or the poor NHS workers, or is it just down to stupidity?

The scenes at the London stations are disgraceful and much more needs to be done to enforce the rules.

 

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The whole thing about people at train stations is a bit irrelevant now in terms of containing the new variant. 
Lots of people will have travelled home

last week for Christmas from London, certainly most in the business I work for did.

As soon as the restaurants closed they saw no point in staying so all headed back to their parents on Thursday or Friday.

 

Unfortunately the only thing that will help to contain this is another lockdown after Christmas where anyone who travelled has to stay in their Xmas bubble until the risk of infection has passed.

 

They said all along that Winter would be very tough, well I guess we know what that looks like now.
 

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