Coronavirus - Part Two.

[Guest makapaka]

34 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Interesting data was released today in the ONS coronavirus survey (section 4) regarding the numbers of cases in different age groups. Growth in cases in school year 12 to age 24 group has been very high for about six weeks now which makes sense as they are the least vaccinated portion of the population. Up until last week, there seemed to be very little growth in cases in the various over 35 age groups. Unfortunately that has now changed. Although the 70+s, which is the group where there is the greatest vulnerability, still shows only modest growth in cases, the growth in cases in the 35-49 year olds was around 70% and in the 50-69 it was around 30% in the last week of data if you take the central estimates. Unfortunately, the little graphs in the relevant figure (figure 3) are on ridiculously unhelpful scales so if you want to verify my numbers you do have to download the data spreadsheet.

 

This helped me rationalize why the vertiginous growth in daily cases has not lead to a similar growth, albeit with an appropriate lag to account for developing illness, in hospitalizations and deaths. Six weeks ago cases were running at about 1 per 1000 across all the adult cohorts. Following the loosening of restrictions, cases have taken off in the youngest group of adults where there is little 'herd immunity'  while remaining at low levels in older more vaccinated age groups where there was good 'herd immunity'. Here I am using 'herd immunity' to refer to the benefit we gain from immunity in the people of a similar age to ourselves who we tend to preferentially herd with. Cases are now so common in young adults that they are now driving up case rates in older cohorts even though there is presumably relatively little spread of infection within these cohorts.

 

Correction: thanks @makapaka (below) for letting me know I had forgotten to add the link: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19

Just looked - they’re hardly increasing in pace i those age groups tho are they?

[Carbuncle 0]

2 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Just looked - they’re hardly increasing in pace i those age groups tho are they?

They are currently at a low level in the older age groups but increasing at the rates I indicated.

[Rockers rule 673]

Great news, our beloved leader Borris is to announce Covid is something we will have to live with and most restrictions will end.

For those who don't like Plan A,

Plan B is also accounted for in you will be able to have more people at your Funeral.

 

Keep safe out there & let your own commonsense prevail. 

 

 

[Delbow 705]

On 05/07/2021 at 09:35, Rockers rule said:

Great news, our beloved leader Borris is to announce Covid is something we will have to live with and most restrictions will end.

For those who don't like Plan A,

Plan B is also accounted for in you will be able to have more people at your Funeral.

 

Keep safe out there & let your own commonsense prevail. 

 

 

The government have made two statements recently:

 

When school children test positive for Covid, their classmates should not isolate

 

It's time for people to return to their workplaces (those who have been working from home)

 

These are dangerously incompatible statements. As with other areas of the country, Covid is rife in Sheffield schools currently. Parents of those children going into their workplaces and mixing in close proximity with others? Madness.

[spilldig 190]

On 05/07/2021 at 09:35, Rockers rule said:

Great news, our beloved leader Borris is to announce Covid is something we will have to live with and most restrictions will end.

For those who don't like Plan A,

Plan B is also accounted for in you will be able to have more people at your Funeral.

 

Keep safe out there & let your own commonsense prevail. 

 

 

Boris gets a heck of a lot of flack from both sides which tells me he has got it about right.

[nightrider 13]

6 hours ago, spilldig said:

Boris gets a heck of a lot of flack from both sides which tells me he has got it about right.

He may have got this one wrong. In the news today it is announced some hospitals are now cancelling routine surgery again - because they are seeing increases in covid admissions yet again. This will only get worse once we let it rip on July 19th. Many lockdown sceptics seem to be under the impression the NHS can go back to normal if we remove lockdowns, but it may have the opposite effect they were expecting.

 

The best way to get the NHS moving again is to stop people being sent to hospital with covid.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Too many covid patients? That's an easy fix - just test less people!! How can the government encourage less testing? Charge for it!!

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lateral-flow-test-covid-coronavirus-b1877045.html

 

I hope this isn't accurate. 

[Baron99 801]

2 hours ago, nightrider said:

He may have got this one wrong. In the news today it is announced some hospitals are now cancelling routine surgery again - because they are seeing increases in covid admissions yet again. This will only get worse once we let it rip on July 19th. Many lockdown sceptics seem to be under the impression the NHS can go back to normal if we remove lockdowns, but it may have the opposite effect they were expecting.

 

The best way to get the NHS moving again is to stop people being sent to hospital with covid.

No, you heard right.   Leeds Teaching Hospital Trust. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html

 

 

 

[butlers 261]

The Sheffield inner-city districts of the Cathedral Quarter and Kelham have the lowest vaccination take-up rate in England. As of Monday just 31.8% of adults there had received one dose and 8.4% two.

Greg Fell, the director of public health for Sheffield, said that while he felt the further unlocking of society was inevitable, people should not underestimate the risks.

 

 

 

[El Cid 220]

34 minutes ago, butlers said:

The Sheffield inner-city districts of the Cathedral Quarter and Kelham have the lowest vaccination take-up rate in England. As of Monday just 31.8% of adults there had received one dose and 8.4% two.

Greg Fell, the director of public health for Sheffield, said that while he felt the further unlocking of society was inevitable, people should not underestimate the risks.

Its a personal choice if people do not want to get vaccinated, we cannot lockdown whilst they think it over.

[butlers 261]

I think it can be read as a bit misleading, surely the population in town will be very heavily weighted young and of course a lot are students and many will now be at home for the summer.

 

[Longcol 604]

41 minutes ago, butlers said:

The Sheffield inner-city districts of the Cathedral Quarter and Kelham have the lowest vaccination take-up rate in England. As of Monday just 31.8% of adults there had received one dose and 8.4% two.

Greg Fell, the director of public health for Sheffield, said that while he felt the further unlocking of society was inevitable, people should not underestimate the risks.

 

 

 

Presuming you're referring to the Guardian article;

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/vaccine-uptake-coronavirus-england-near-halves-mixed-messages-manchester-sheffield-19-july

 

"Fell said the Cathedral and Kelham figures should be viewed with caution, given that an estimated 66.5% of residents were students, many of whom had returned home. “They’ll still be in our numbers but they aren’t going to get a needle stuck in their arm in Sheffield,” he noted."