Coronavirus - Part Two.

[nightrider 13]

22 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

I'd agree to point, but there have been 250 deaths in Canada due to heat this week - I haven't checked the figures but I bet thats more deaths than covid has caused in the same area and the world isnt doing much on climate change.

Those 250 won't infect other people with "heat" though, so its really not comparable. With covid the number of deaths is never the worry at first, its the potential rapid rate of increase as weeks go by (at which point one really would have something to worry about) - something that cannot happen with climate change on similar timescales.

Edited July 1, 2021 by nightrider

[Guest makapaka]

5 hours ago, butlers said:

Yes but this disease is more consequencial than any in my lifetime.

 

You sure about that ?

[Guest makapaka]

Face coverings back in schools now.

 

When’s predictions for next lockdown then?

[Thirsty Relic 206]

20 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Face coverings back in schools now.

 

When’s predictions for next lockdown then?

Doubt if there will be one.  Do all signs tick the boxes for an end to lockdown:

• no great rise in hospitalisations    - tick
• public ready for easing     - tick
• all over 18's had chance of vaccine   -  unsure..... maybe by Freedom Day?
• Vaccine ID certification ready to roll out   -   been on trial for ages, so maybe?
• public ready to be told to use Covid certificates to go to the pub etc?   -  perhaps! we've swallowed all orders to date!

Conclusion:  2 or 3 points not quite ready - perhaps we need a bigger push to speed things up!  More press briefings, warnings and headlines perhaps.....

[tinfoilhat 11]

6 minutes ago, Thirsty Relic said:

Doubt if there will be one.  Do all signs tick the boxes for an end to lockdown:

• no great rise in hospitalisations    - tick
• public ready for easing     - tick
• all over 18's had chance of vaccine   -  unsure..... maybe by Freedom Day?
• Vaccine ID certification ready to roll out   -   been on trial for ages, so maybe?
• public ready to be told to use Covid certificates to go to the pub etc?   -  perhaps! we've swallowed all orders to date!

Conclusion:  2 or 3 points not quite ready - perhaps we need a bigger push to speed things up!  More press briefings, warnings and headlines perhaps.....

Really depends on the next mutation. Kent and Indian variants weren't that far apart were they? Due one perhaps September, and I'm going to guess from Spain or France. We'll call it the TUI variant.

[Thirsty Relic 206]

And as our rulers are planning a double-vaccination, getting us to have Covid and Flu vacations together (possibly in one jab, possibly not), I predict not just a warning that immunity is running out and the new vaccine is better than the others we've had so far at dealing with Delta, but also that there is a new, deadlier flu strain on its way.  Cue panic and long queues for a third jab of both Covid and Flu vaccinations. 

 

Of course, they'll wait until everyone has their second jab before the PR assault readying us for the third round.

[Baron99 772]

5 minutes ago, Thirsty Relic said:

And as our rulers are planning a double-vaccination, getting us to have Covid and Flu vacations together (possibly in one jab, possibly not), I predict not just a warning that immunity is running out and the new vaccine is better than the others we've had so far at dealing with Delta, but also that there is a new, deadlier flu strain on its way.  Cue panic and long queues for a third jab of both Covid and Flu vaccinations. 

 

Of course, they'll wait until everyone has their second jab before the PR assault readying us for the third round.

Preparations already appear to be underway? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57667987

[Thirsty Relic 206]

17 minutes ago, Baron99 said:

Preparations already appear to be underway? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57667987

That looks like the softener only - mentioning it, also saying flu is likely to be worse this winter (without evidence or reasoning).  The main prompting will come later, as the main thrust from now on will be to get everybody jabbed before lockdown ends.

[Baron99 772]

2 minutes ago, Thirsty Relic said:

That looks like the softener only - mentioning it, also saying flu is likely to be worse this winter (without evidence or reasoning).  The main prompting will come later, as the main thrust from now on will be to get everybody jabbed before lockdown ends.

Well I'll be accepting a 3rd jab, (not a single affect from the other 2, not even a sore arm), along with my usual annual flu jab that I've been having for years.  I'm grateful. 

[Baron99 772]

On 29/06/2021 at 16:09, Mister M said:

Well said!.

The cretins that assaulted him have got their moronic faces all over social media. Can't be too long before the police knock at their door. Good.

They've issued an apology.  One of them says he's lost his job because of it.   At least there are consequences for one of them but Whitty doesn't want to press charges by the looks of things.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57675176

 

I was listening to LBC the other day when they were talking about this incident & the possible affect it would have had on Whitty?  The journalist then mentioned that such an event as this might have brought back memories for him as a teenager in Athens, when his father, who was working for the British Council at the time was dragged from his car & shot & killed by a Palestinian terrorist group, Abu Nidal Organization. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Baron99

[Carbuncle 0]

Interesting data was released today in the ONS coronavirus survey (section 4) regarding the numbers of cases in different age groups. Growth in cases in school year 12 to age 24 group has been very high for about six weeks now which makes sense as they are the least vaccinated portion of the population. Up until last week, there seemed to be very little growth in cases in the various over 35 age groups. Unfortunately that has now changed. Although the 70+s, which is the group where there is the greatest vulnerability, still shows only modest growth in cases, the growth in cases in the 35-49 year olds was around 70% and in the 50-69 it was around 30% in the last week of data if you take the central estimates. Unfortunately, the little graphs in the relevant figure (figure 3) are on ridiculously unhelpful scales so if you want to verify my numbers you do have to download the data spreadsheet.

 

This helped me rationalize why the vertiginous growth in daily cases has not lead to a similar growth, albeit with an appropriate lag to account for developing illness, in hospitalizations and deaths. Six weeks ago cases were running at about 1 per 1000 across all the adult cohorts. Following the loosening of restrictions, cases have taken off in the youngest group of adults where there is little 'herd immunity'  while remaining at low levels in older more vaccinated age groups where there was good 'herd immunity'. Here I am using 'herd immunity' to refer to the benefit we gain from immunity in the people of a similar age to ourselves who we tend to preferentially herd with. Cases are now so common in young adults that they are now driving up case rates in older cohorts even though there is presumably relatively little spread of infection within these cohorts.

 

Correction: thanks @makapaka (below) for letting me know I had forgotten to add the link: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19

Edited July 2, 2021 by Carbuncle

[Guest makapaka]

29 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Interesting data was released today in the ONS coronavirus survey (section 4) regarding the numbers of cases in different age groups. Growth in cases in school year 12 to age 24 group has been very high for about six weeks now which makes sense as they are the least vaccinated portion of the population. Up until last week, there seemed to be very little growth in cases in the various over 35 age groups. Unfortunately that has now changed. Although the 70+s, which is the group where there is the greatest vulnerability, still shows only modest growth in cases, the growth in cases in the 35-49 year olds was around 70% and in the 50-69 it was around 30% in the last week of data if you take the central estimates. Unfortunately, the little graphs in the relevant figure (figure 3) are on ridiculously unhelpful scales so if you want to verify my numbers you do have to download the data spreadsheet.

 

This helped me rationalize why the vertiginous growth in daily cases has not lead to a similar growth, albeit with an appropriate lag to account for developing illness, in hospitalizations and deaths. Six weeks ago cases were running at about 1 per 1000 across all the adult cohorts. Following the loosening of restrictions, cases have taken off in the youngest group of adults where there is little 'herd immunity'  while remaining at low levels in older more vaccinated age groups where there was good 'herd immunity'. Here I am using 'herd immunity' to refer to the benefit we gain from immunity in the people of a similar age to ourselves who we tend to preferentially herd with. Cases are now so common in young adults that they are now driving up case rates in older cohorts even though there is presumably relatively little spread of infection within these cohorts.

 

 

Where is figure 3? And section 4?

Edited July 2, 2021 by makapaka