Coronavirus - Part Two.

[Carbuncle 0]

 

6 hours ago, Annie Bynnol said:

In science 'mostly right' =  start again from scratch.

The epidemiology modellers know their models are wrong, they are not trying to hide it. Their models do however contain insight. At the moment, that is in their last submissions to SPI-M-O and SAGE, it is clear that they feel uncertainty is particularly high at the moment. Not only are they signalling this with wide credible intervals ('known unknowns') but they are also signalling low confidence in their models ('unknown unknowns'). Government policy is to allow rates of infection to explode albeit not as rapidly as would have happened had the last restrictions been released on the 21st. The models suggest we will probably be ok (ie hospitals probably not over-run, deaths in the low 10,000s in the reasonable worse case) but we are going to be very vulnerable to any kind of unpleasant surprise (not captured in the models) emerging around the peak of the third wave.

 

Being an expert means having some sense of how much faith to place in your models. Being 'mostly right' does not mean they have to 'start again from scratch'. Their models are wrong but useful.

 

The news media is currently focusing on the relatively low current covid numbers and the possibility of business failures. They are not overstating the threat from covid, they are mostly ignoring the coming peak and speaking as if the possibility of a third wave is still a matter of conjecture when it actually started at least a month ago.

[butlers 261]

Just been on C4 that the nhs is putting planing in place for the 3rd wave to be half the size if the first.

 

As to letting go of restrictions like some were strongly calling for last autumn,more people died in care homes in the 2nd wave than the first despite testing being available and knowledge gained 

It seems a bit of a myth that " sheltering " the  vunerable would really have worked as well as some seem to believe.

 

[Longcol 601]

10 hours ago, top4718 said:

To be fair the conspiracy theorists have been mostly right so far.

They can't make up their mind if covid is real or caused by 5G phone masts and whether vaccines are used to kill us in our millions or implant us all with a microchip to control us.

 

But just like 9/11 etc they'll all unite round "it can't possibly  be what the MSM says....................."

[butlers 261]

Horizon special just starting now on the development of the Covid vaccine

[Mister M 1,625]

The Government are planning to legislate that all care staff in the residential care sector will have to be vaccinated.

 

I support them in that. I know that persuading people is always preferable, but apparently there is a significant minority who are refusing to be vaccinated and are not persuadable.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Mister M

[Annie Bynnol 612]

1 hour ago, Carbuncle said:

 

The epidemiology modellers know their models are wrong, they are not trying to hide it. Their models do however contain insight. At the moment, that is in their last submissions to SPI-M-O and SAGE, it is clear that they feel uncertainty is particularly high at the moment. Not only are they signalling this with wide credible intervals ('known unknowns') but they are also signalling low confidence in their models ('unknown unknowns'). Government policy is to allow rates of infection to explode albeit not as rapidly as would have happened had the last restrictions been released on the 21st. The models suggest we will probably be ok (ie hospitals probably not over-run, deaths in the low 10,000s in the reasonable worse case) but we are going to be very vulnerable to any kind of unpleasant surprise (not captured in the models) emerging around the peak of the third wave.

 

Being an expert means having some sense of how much faith to place in your models. Being 'mostly right' does not mean they have to 'start again from scratch'. Their models are wrong but useful.

 

The news media is currently focusing on the relatively low current covid numbers and the possibility of business failures. They are not overstating the threat from covid, they are mostly ignoring the coming peak and speaking as if the possibility of a third wave is still a matter of conjecture when it actually started at least a month ago.

I have been involved  over several post with someone discussing our very different views on the impact of corovirus. 

The 'mostly right' bit is a quote from them. I admit to playing on the phrase.

I made no link between 'mostly right' and the use of models which you introduced.

 

Modelling usually supports the the ability to make predictions and test them.

Medical science, theoretical physics, climate, environmental, behavioural etc., where the absence of evidence and the limited possibility of experimentation leads to statistical modelling techniques being used and accepted as the major source of evidence. This is risky and models are often repeatedly tweaked to give "better" outcomes that fit observations. As this is risky the majority of scientific research sticks to the orthodox method which will likely identify numerous 'dead ends'.  

 

[top4718 838]

1 hour ago, butlers said:

Horizon special just starting now on the development of the Covid vaccine

Please stop watching main stream media on this situation, they are paid to feed you absolute garbage, Lord Haw Haw would be proud.

[Guest makapaka]

1 hour ago, Longcol said:

They can't make up their mind if covid is real or caused by 5G phone masts and whether vaccines are used to kill us in our millions or implant us all with a microchip to control us.

 

But just like 9/11 etc they'll all unite round "it can't possibly  be what the MSM says....................."

The lad @top4718 has some valid points but has done what a lot of people do and take an extreme viewpoint whereby any counter is disregarded.

 

there’s definitely a valid argument that we’re storing up a different type of health crisis. There’s a definite argument that the impact on the young is not being considered.

 

it’s clear however that the virus has the ability to overrun healthcare systems if left unchecked, and does kill people, so arguing that it’s anything over than that is daft. Plus the conspiracy stuff is  nonsense.

 

I personally think we’ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner where we seem to be pursuing a zero tolerance to the virus whilst simultaneously trying to encourage a return to normality.

 

massive mixed message which is why we have stupid rules that make no sense - like allowing a pub to fill up with people drinking and not wearing masks but then putting one on to walk to the toilet etc - just makes people question the narrative.

 

a proper government would come out and provide real explanations of risk and why certain restrictions / guidance was in place - but we don’t have it.

 

for example I’m happy to wear a mask in a busy train carriage from Birmingham to Sheffield - i think it’s a joke I have to wear one to stand at the entrance to a pub which when I get in I can take off etc 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by makapaka

[Longcol 601]

6 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Please stop watching main stream media on this situation, they are paid to feed you absolute garbage, Lord Haw Haw would be proud.

Read the David Icke Forum and turn your brain to mush.................................

[Guest sibon]

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

Read the David Icke Forum and turn your brain to mush.................................

Read it? 
 

He wrote it.

[tinfoilhat 11]

16 minutes ago, top4718 said:

Please stop watching main stream media on this situation, they are paid to feed you absolute garbage, Lord Haw Haw would be proud.

You don't watch it, but know it's wrong. Classic toppers.

[swarfendor437 14]

Well just to look at things from a different angle on News reporting - staged events:

 

 

Agent provocateurs: