Coronavirus - Part Two.

[RollingJ 1,993]

4 minutes ago, butlers said:

The article has so many ifs,buts and maybes.

 

There's more good news today cases down and test positivity down 30% from an already low percentage

👍

[Guest makapaka]

37 minutes ago, RollingJ said:

Cheers - can't see the North of England mentioned in there, though.

No but whatever happens elsewhere will ultimately happen here.

 

it makes no sense to me.

 

that said - we live in an age where potential policy is just voiced by “experts” to the media - the government is oddly quiet about it though. 

[RollingJ 1,993]

3 minutes ago, makapaka said:

No but whatever happens elsewhere will ultimately happen here.

 

it makes no sense to me.

 

that said - we live in an age where potential policy is just voiced by “experts” to the media - the government is oddly quiet about it though. 

Bolded bit - exactly, and just how 'expert are these 'experts', and how much of the reports are journalistic interpretation? I take such 'news' with a large pinch of salt, especially that from your quoted 'source'.

[tinfoilhat 11]

54 minutes ago, RollingJ said:

Bolded bit - exactly, and just how 'expert are these 'experts', and how much of the reports are journalistic interpretation? I take such 'news' with a large pinch of salt, especially that from your quoted 'source'.

This is spot on - Too often the "experts" in the press aren't named until wayyy down the article and they aren't that much of an expert. Sometimes they aren't named at all.

[hackey lad 3,937]

19 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

There has been a documented case in France from that time. They tested a bloke, didn't test for anything they knew, stuck it on a shelf and tested it the summer and it tested positive for covid. I'll find the link.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

Thank you for that  , very interesting 

[Guest makapaka]

5 hours ago, RollingJ said:

Bolded bit - exactly, and just how 'expert are these 'experts', and how much of the reports are journalistic interpretation? I take such 'news' with a large pinch of salt, especially that from your quoted 'source'.

My worry is that the pinch of salt is not always taken by people in power - on the basis that it can come back to bite them.

 

the media pounces on the “experts” and it becomes the news - which creates pressure on the people in power.

 

so when I say we’re being warmed up for it / I’d expect it.

 

it’s weird that every time there is a relaxation of restrictions there is suddenly another reason to be immediately concerned.

 

said it before - I think we’re absolutely goosed by this - there’s no political way out - hence there is no way out.

Edited April 15, 2021 by makapaka

[RollingJ 1,993]

Understand your concerns now - in other words you are saying those in power are taking misleading soundbites to formulate policy - sounds about right to me.

[*_ash_* 88]

On 15/04/2021 at 14:10, butlers said:

I can find no evidence of confirmed Covid in the UK before Jan 29.

 

What date was testing first available in the UK?

 

Most people I still think at this time didn't really know anything about it. 

 

I think the first post on here wasn't until about the 24th (though the thread has gone, so I can't check)

[butlers 259]

Fair point.

 

But as we know how transmissible it is and pre Jan no one would have idea to mask / distance it seems odd that these much earlier illnesses did not strike down workmates/ family

[*_ash_* 88]

1 minute ago, butlers said:

Fair point.

 

But as we know how transmissible it is and pre Jan no one would have idea to mask / distance it seems odd that these much earlier illnesses did not strike down workmates/ family

I think butlers... once things have calmed down a bit, and more studies are looked at, we'll find out how early it really began, and where. I think some claim maybe as early as late September, especially if access to any bloods samples that were taken and kept before the outbreak are able to be checked.

 

I've seen some claims that blood from pregnant women that are kept, have found positive samples in October/November time, but it's obviously not really talked about, and I obviously can't check things like this...

 

People now want info on economy and vaccines. I don't think many people really care about the origin. That's something for the future. I don't even think anyone yet knows the original animal, though pigs or bats, I think are top of the list, at the moment.

 

As we know, thousands of people die every day. And before the pandemic, we just take them as deaths, flu like symptoms / breathing problems etc.

No one would suspect anything until an unusual number of things happen at the same time... i.e. exactly what happened! 

 

There are already lots of info to be found, to suggest that it originated a few months earlier... but even as infectious as it is, if the first person is ever known, it could have died out lots of times first from their contacts, without a major outbreak. Hence why we focus on the initial main outbreak at this market.

 

-

 

Don't forget, not everyone is in constant contact with people.

for example. If person 1 was in September, then this looks plausible to me... and means it could have started somewhere else other than the market... the earliest claims I have seen were the Italian samples. Which ties in with Italy being the first major outbreak if we remember. 

 

if person 1 passed it to 3 people, then no more. (based on the average r=3, which the original is considered to be around)

 

Person 1 might not have passed it on, or was a bit ill and stayed at home - dead end

Person 2 might have met no one, and passed it on to no one - dead end

Person 3 might have passed it on to 3 (and repeat this)

 

It's not a fast process at first (unless of course the 1st person was in the market, which doesn't seem likely to me)

 

Then at one point in time, someone had it, and worked in place where it could thrive, i.e. same people every day, lots of customers, 

i.e. Wuhan Market which is the current considered outbreak.

 

I think this is probably right. 

That's my look on it anyway. I don't read any conspiracy theories, this is how I think it happened based on what I've thought and picked up.

 

[Guest makapaka]

11 hours ago, *_ash_* said:

No one would suspect anything until an unusual number of things happen at the same time... i.e. exactly what happened! 

The ability to test for it is a double edged sword for me - there is an obsession with cases and not whether people are actually ill or if the health system is coping.

A prime example is the reaction to a bad flu season - we have become used to it - so unless we were told that the local hospital was being overrun by people with flu - we would never give it a seconds thought.

 

in this instance we are given a rolling weekly rate of how many people have coronavirus in the part of the city you live in.

 

There are comparable rates between crookes and Walkley for example - when the residents use largely the same shops and kids go to the same schools - it’s ridiculous.

[*_ash_* 88]

11 hours ago, makapaka said:

The ability to test for it is a double edged sword for me - there is an obsession with cases and not whether people are actually ill or if the health system is coping.

A prime example is the reaction to a bad flu season - we have become used to it - so unless we were told that the local hospital was being overrun by people with flu - we would never give it a seconds thought.

 

in this instance we are given a rolling weekly rate of how many people have coronavirus in the part of the city you live in.

 

There are comparable rates between crookes and Walkley for example - when the residents use largely the same shops and kids go to the same schools - it’s ridiculous.

Which wasn't known in January (or earlier), which is when we are talking about.