Coronavirus - Part Two.

[RollingJ 2,035]

7 minutes ago, Mister M said:

Johnson can please himself. He finds humour in most situations, "Operation Last Gasp" was his 'light hearted' gag at the UK's attempts to het more ventilators. No he can take the **** all he likes; I'm sure the people who have died from the disease would be ******* themselves laughing at his 'jokes', had they not died.

Meanwhile the Mail yesterday tries to con people that Johnson can be taken seriously when he said that his experience of being the PM while the disease was ravaging the population would 'Haunt me for as long as I live'

 

Well he can always cheer himself up with one of his amusing asides.

 

On your other point about not knowing if more people would've died had other decision been made. Professor Neil Fergusson disagrees with you. Prof Fergusson told a committee of MPs 

"Had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final death toll by at least a half."

 

 

 

And Ferguson can prove his point, scientifically?

[Mister M 1,625]

1 minute ago, RollingJ said:

And Ferguson can prove his point, scientifically?

Given that he's a epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals, I'm more inclined to listen to him and his advice to MPs, than someone off a social media site.

[RollingJ 2,035]

1 minute ago, Mister M said:

Given that he's a epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals, I'm more inclined to listen to him and his advice to MPs, than someone off a social media site.

Of course, I understand that, but can he prove his claim, as a scientist?

 

That's why I don't follow such sites as Twitter, Facebook, et al.

[Mister M 1,625]

Well Sheffield Forum is a social media site. With regards to Neil Fergusson being able to prove his claim, then no he can't.

[RollingJ 2,035]

35 minutes ago, Mister M said:

Well Sheffield Forum is a social media site. With regards to Neil Fergusson being able to prove his claim, then no he can't.

I appreciate SF is a social media site, but all posts are open to all, without having to 'follow' individuals, so you get a slightly more balanced view and follow things easier - well, I can.

 

Thanks for the comment about Ferguson, though - so he could be totally wrong - i.e. it's just his opinion?

[apelike 10]

47 minutes ago, Mister M said:

Given that he's a epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals, I'm more inclined to listen to him and his advice to MPs, than someone off a social media site.

He also said: "So whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then, in terms of its transmission, were warranted... certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."

 

Unfortunately for him  his past record does not show him up as being that accurate when it come to predictions.

 

Worldwide deaths he predicted, admittedly as a worst case scenario.

 

BSE 2002 predicted 50,000 actual 177

Bird Flu 2005 predicted 150M actual 282. This also lead the government of the time to waste millions of £'s on antivirals which were then not needed.

Swine Flu 2009 predicted 65,000 actual 457

 

Just to add.. the code he is using to model the Covid-19 pandemic is old and was written 13 years ago to simulate flu pandemics.

[Mister M 1,625]

25 minutes ago, RollingJ said:

I appreciate SF is a social media site, but all posts are open to all, without having to 'follow' individuals, so you get a slightly more balanced view and follow things easier - well, I can.

 

Thanks for the comment about Ferguson, though - so he could be totally wrong - i.e. it's just his opinion?

That locking down too late cost many lives? Based on what happened at Christmas with people mingling causing a spike in cases, I'd say it was an opinion that is more than likely. 

Neil Fergusson was asked before the select committee presumably because he's got more than an opinion.

[RollingJ 2,035]

@Mister M- I refer you to the post just before yours.

[Anna B 1,414]

3 hours ago, RollingJ said:

And Ferguson can prove his point, scientifically?

If the R rate is more than 2, then the numbers rise rapidly as the infection spreads. Once the numbers start to grow exponentially large, it's out of hand and all semblance of control is lost as it reproduces itself every day.

(Think the rice on a chess board adage, doubling every day.)

 

The whole thing rests on working fast and hard to stop it while the numbers are still small enough to deal with effectively. The government were told testing, testing, testing, particularly in the early days was paramount, (then you know what you are dealing with,) lock down asap. And then track and trace the relatively small numbers of those who have been infected.

 

This was a tried and tested method used in other countries who had been hit well before us, so we had time to prepare. 

Boris did none of this. Probably because he missed the first 5 Cobra meetings when I'm sure it was discussed.

 

Queensland, Australia went into Lockdown with a mere 5 cases, had draconian quarantine laws, and stopped it in it's tracks.

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Anna B

[RollingJ 2,035]

Great reply, @Anna B, but not to the point raised in the quote. 😉

[Staunton 18]

Boris Johnson would like us to believe that capitalism and greed enabled the success of the UK vaccine project. In fact, following the private sector catastrophy of the PPE scandal and the devastating failure of the promised world-beating outsourced test and trace project, the vaccine success is due entirely to social democratic mechanisms - up front public investment to encourage innovation in a sector that prefers to sell established staples - SSRIs, analgesics and nicotine patches; the use of legacy public education institutions; and supply of the finished product 'at cost' rather than to shareholder advantage, administered via the NHS. But don't expect these facts to be celebrated on the front page of the Daily Mail or explained bythe BBC

[apelike 10]

27 minutes ago, Staunton said:

Boris Johnson would like us to believe that capitalism and greed enabled the success of the UK vaccine project. In fact, following the private sector catastrophy of the PPE scandal and the devastating failure of the promised world-beating outsourced test and trace project, the vaccine success is due entirely to social democratic mechanisms - up front public investment to encourage innovation in a sector that prefers to sell established staples - SSRIs, analgesics and nicotine patches; the use of legacy public education institutions; and supply of the finished product 'at cost' rather than to shareholder advantage, administered via the NHS. But don't expect these facts to be celebrated on the front page of the Daily Mail or explained bythe BBC

I refer you to post #4581.