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Coronavirus - Part Two.

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33 minutes ago, apelike said:

No as you can turn off location tracking on a mobile phone.

Only by turning the whole phone off - the phones have to link to a base station to get a signal and this can be triangulated/tracked.

34 minutes ago, apelike said:

Its not a very well written article.

 

Its still a hypothesis and one of the doctors involved even states "... that the commentary has its limitations and should not be construed as anything other than a theory."

 

The data is also about wearing masks of different grades and not face coverings though, ie just a piece of ungraded cloth. It also talks about reducing the viral load that the wearer is exposed to as opposed to face coverings which are meant to help stop the viral load being expelled outwards into the surrounding air. We already know that surgical masks do work and that's why they are used in hospitals etc.

 

Notice this bit at the end....

 

"In a coronavirus outbreak on a closed Argentinian cruise ship, for example, where passengers were provided with surgical masks and staff with N95 masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection was 81 per cent. This is compared with 20 per cent in earlier cruise ship outbreaks without universal masking."

 

So in order to have any beneficial effect nationally everybody need to wear a graded surgical mask.

 

No as you can turn off location tracking on a mobile phone.

Its not a very well written response.

It is a hypothesis but it is based on facts and data...

 

So to have a beneficial effect, everyone should wear a mask, ideally a graded surgical mask, but the figures show that any mask is better than none.

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13 minutes ago, Litotes said:

Only by turning the whole phone off - the phones have to link to a base station to get a signal and this can be triangulated/tracked.

Turning it off is one way to have no tracking at all but triangulation tracking is not very accurate and can only give an approximate location which and useless for tracking a persons movements precisely.

 

13 minutes ago, Litotes said:

It is a hypothesis but it is based on facts and data...

Which the author states has its limitations, is just a theory and needs more data and time to test the hypothesis. 

 

13 minutes ago, Litotes said:

So to have a beneficial effect, everyone should wear a mask, ideally a graded surgical mask,

Strange as that's what I put as well... :)

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1 hour ago, apelike said:

Turning it off is one way to have no tracking at all but triangulation tracking is not very accurate and can only give an approximate location which and useless for tracking a persons movements precisely.

No, but you are still tracked...

1 hour ago, apelike said:

 

Which the author states has its limitations, is just a theory and needs more data and time to test the hypothesis. 

Once again, you shoot yourself in your foot - In scientific reasoning, a hypothesis is an assumption made before any research has been completed for the sake of testing. A theory on the other hand is a principle set to explain phenomena already supported by data. So you agree it is a theory which is already supported by the data... good now we can move forwards.

1 hour ago, apelike said:

 

Strange as that's what I put as well... :)

No, you said everyone should wear a surgical mask - I said everyone should wear a mask (ideally a surgical one, but any mask is better than no mask)... a subtle difference which you obviously did not see.

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3 hours ago, apelike said:

Its not a very well written article.

 

 

 

Well obvs.  It's in the Telegraph.  Point remains, though, that mask wearing may well be providing a level of immunity that wouldn't otherwise occur.

1 hour ago, apelike said:

 

 

Which the author states has its limitations, is just a theory and needs more data and time to test the hypothesis. 

 

 

Which is exactly how science works.  

1 hour ago, apelike said:

 

 

Which the author states has its limitations, is just a theory and needs more data and time to test the hypothesis. 

 

 

Actually ... Is it a theory or is it a hypothesis?  I assume a person of your obvious knowledge and experience knows the difference.

 

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There is always going to be uncertainty-amongst the public- surrounding the benefit of wearing masks,surgical grade or not.

Uncertainty arises from imperfect information.And as demonstrated on the Forum. There's no perfect information to refer to that will expunge the uncertainty.

So out of all the imperfect information circulating ,I will choose....

Quote

 but any mask is better than no mask)

.

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3 hours ago, apelike said:

In the UK the percentage of those over 16 that don't have a mobile phone now is very low at around 3%.

I think you're getting mixed up with households owning mobiles (95%)

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/289167/mobile-phone-penetration-in-the-uk/#:~:text=Currently%2C approximately 95 percent of,reported owning a mobile telephone.

 

Still large numbers of over 55's who do don't own a mobile.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271851/smartphone-owners-in-the-united-kingdom-uk-by-age/

 

Not keen on the token idea myself though.

Edited by Longcol

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1 hour ago, Litotes said:

No, but you are still tracked...

So being anywhere in an area of around 200-300 sq metres is being tracked... interesting.

 

Quote

Once again, you shoot yourself in your foot - In scientific reasoning, a hypothesis is an assumption made before any research has been completed for the sake of testing. A theory on the other hand is a principle set to explain phenomena already supported by data. So you agree it is a theory which is already supported by the data... good now we can move forwards.

No I agree with the author of the article who states its a hypothesis and the doctor who states its a theory.  Now you know what I meant by not well written.

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No, you said everyone should wear a surgical mask - I said everyone should wear a mask (ideally a surgical one, but any mask is better than no mask)... a subtle difference which you obviously did not see.

Being pedantic to try win an argument is a bit sad.

Edited by apelike

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1 hour ago, Lockjaw said:

 

Well obvs.  It's in the Telegraph.  Point remains, though, that mask wearing may well be providing a level of immunity that wouldn't otherwise occur.

Yes it may well do that, with the emphasis on may well so its not a certainty then... :)

 

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Which is exactly how science works.  

I agree and have not argued otherwise.

 

Quote

Actually ... Is it a theory or is it a hypothesis?  I assume a person of your obvious knowledge and experience knows the difference.

I refer to your first sentence about my saying it was not well written. Both terms were mentioned in the article so perhaps you should ask the author of it instead of me.

Edited by apelike

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21 minutes ago, apelike said:

Yes it may well do that, with the emphasis on may well so its not a certainty then... :)

 

I agree and have not argued otherwise.

 

I refer to your first sentence about my saying it was not well written. Both terms were mentioned in the article so perhaps you should ask the author of it instead of me.

Being pedantic to try win an argument is a bit sad.

But just because you are a pedant, doesn't mean your argument doesn't have some validity...

The difference is in the detail - and in a case of a pandemic, that can be a difference of life and death.

 

But, hey - you are willing to throw lives away about details...

29 minutes ago, apelike said:

So being anywhere in an area of around 200-300 sq metres is being tracked... interesting.

So to what precision is being tracked in your opinion?

1cm, 1m, 10m, 100m, 200m?

 

I am sure the government would like to know what you consider is allowable...

 

Please do let us know.

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1 hour ago, Longcol said:

I think you're getting mixed up with households owning mobiles (95%)

No the stats are from the ONS but I cant link them as it just goes to a pdf download.

 

Ofcom estimated that 3% of the UK3 adult population did not own a mobile phone. In particular in UK a total of 78.5 million mobile phone subscriptions have been registered at end 2014.

 

Given the date I would assume that the percentage is now lower.

 

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Cant view that as it asks to register. 

 

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As above. ONS data states around 3% 55-64 going up to around 10% 65-74.

 

Quote

Not keen on the token idea myself though.

Another idea that wont work unless compulsory.

Edited by apelike

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12 minutes ago, apelike said:

No the stats are from the ONS but I cant link them as it just goes to a pdf download.

 

 

Presumably you can provide a link to the pdf download?

 

Another link showing UK mobile ownership by adults a good deal less than 97%.

 

https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics#:~:text=In 2019%2C 79% of UK,is spent on social media.

Edited by Longcol

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6 hours ago, apelike said:

In the UK the percentage of those over 16 that don't have a mobile phone now is very low at around 3%.

That’s really not true.

 

According to Statista, 4% of households don’t have a mobile at all. 20% of households only have one phone.

 

So, a conservative estimate would give mobile ownership at no more than 90%. Some of those won’t be smartphones.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/387184/number-of-mobile-phones-per-household-in-the-uk/

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