Coronavirus - Part Two.

[medusa 16]

4 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Hurrah!

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/russia-claims-to-have-registered-first-coronavirus-vaccine.html

 

 

"No data has yet been published by the researchers and the long-term effects and safety of this possible vaccine currently remain unclear."

Not hurrah yet I'm afraid.  The new vaccine has been approved for use, but that's before it's even completed full safety testing, let alone efficacy testing. 

 

Testing comes in phases.  First come the basic 'does the molecule kill people' tests, which are all pre-clinical, then there are 4 formalised phases.

 

Phase 1 is safety testing for different doses and dosage regimes in healthy volunteers.  For this to progress further, the safety data should follow up these patients for over a year before licensing, which clearly hasn't happened in this case (but there may have been special dispensation to compress these phases, given the immediacy of the need).

 

Phase 2 is where they work out in a few volunteers (who are likely to have the disease in question) whether the drug has any of the effects that they are looking for, and at which doses, and if the side effects are sufficiently low to allow them to move onto phase 3.   About 60% of all drugs are withdrawn after phase 2 trials as non-viable.

 

Phase 3 includes a lot more patients, refining the dosage and reproducing the phase 2 trials on a much larger basis to check that the small scale results were not incorrect and that there aren't safety or side effect concerns when given to much bigger groups of patients.

 

After this has been done it is usually submitted to the licensing authorities with all of the trial data already collected.  Only about 30% of drugs that get as far as phase 3 trials pass this stage.

 

After phase 3 and licensing then phase 4 post-marketing surveillance can begin on the first patients to have the drug administered for real.  Most companies will then continue to perform trials in as many different scenarios and clinical settings as they can, for years after licensing.

 

If you haven't even started phase 3 trials then as far as I'm concerned, you're claiming success which is at best hopeful and circumstantial.  It may possibly be useless, or create side effects in a wider range of patients that we simply aren't aware of yet.

[Longcol 597]

10 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Hurrah!

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/russia-claims-to-have-registered-first-coronavirus-vaccine.html

 

 

"No data has yet been published by the researchers and the long-term effects and safety of this possible vaccine currently remain unclear."

Yeah - Putin is upping the odds with Trump and pushing the USA towards an untested vaccine / bleach in time for the presidential elections.

[whiteowl 54]

10 hours ago, Longcol said:

Yeah - Putin is upping the odds with Trump and pushing the USA towards an untested vaccine / bleach in time for the presidential elections.

Wouldn't surprise me if Trump awards a vaccine licence to Domestos.

[RiffRaff 10]

NZ is now suspicious that the sudden reappearance - after 102 days? - of covid is due to a freight consignment...

[the_bloke 17]

England finally uses the same methodology to count Covid-19 deaths as the other home nations, and we drop 5000+ deaths.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

[RiffRaff 10]

Somebody has pointed out that an anagram of coronavirus is....

Carnivorous.

 

Ironic, really.

 

[Longcol 597]

4 hours ago, the_bloke said:

England finally uses the same methodology to count Covid-19 deaths as the other home nations, and we drop 5000+ deaths.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

Although ONS show that 51,170 deaths in England and Wales alone have Covid 19 mentioned on death certificates up until the end of July.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#coviddeaths

[RJRB 688]

Whilst the actual performance on the control of Covid19 in England and Scotland may not be so different,I certainly think that the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon far surpasses that of Boris Johnson.

She has remained at the forefront of all press conferences and speaks with consistency and authority.

Johnson drifts in and out of the limelight as it suits  and I fail to see his supposed reputation as an inspirational orator.

Unfortunately those ministers who are required to speak on their particulat specialities are also uninspiring,with the possible exception of Sunak

Edited August 13, 2020 by RJRB

[Thirsty Relic 209]

2 hours ago, RJRB said:

Whilst the actual performance on the control of Covid19 in England and Scotland may not be so different,I certainly think that the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon far surpasses that of Boris Johnson.

She has remained at the forefront of all press conferences and speaks with consistency and authority.

Johnson drifts in and out of the limelight as it suits  and I fail to see his supposed reputation as an inspirational orator.

Unfortunately those ministers who are required to speak on their particulat specialities are also uninspiring,with the possible exception of Sunak

Yes - I have to agree, Sunak seems the best of a bad bunch, and one of (or possibly the only) politician to be enhancing his reputation in this crisis.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Fans are going to be allowed to the crucible to see the final. 300 hundred so it's quite low risk. But the government are hoping to "allow a wider return of fans to sport on the 1st October."

 

 

World Snooker Championship 2020: Fans expected to be allowed for final - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/53771656

 

The numbers are going up again. Am I missing something? 

Edited August 13, 2020 by tinfoilhat

[Tomm06 12]

1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

Fans are going to be allowed to the crucible to see the final. 300 hundred so it's quite low risk. But the government are hoping to "allow a wider return of fans to sport on the 1st October."

 

 

World Snooker Championship 2020: Fans expected to be allowed for final - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/53771656

 

The numbers are going up again. Am I missing something? 

The more we start stepping out the numbers are going to start rising. That's always going to happen. It's not overwhelming our health system, that's the important part. 

 

I mean personally I start drifting off watching snooker on telly but each his own. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Tomm06

[whiteowl 54]

4 hours ago, Tomm06 said:

The more we start stepping out the numbers are going to start rising. That's always going to happen. It's not overwhelming our health system, that's the important part. 

 

I mean personally I start drifting off watching snooker on telly but each his own. 

Agreed - as my previous posts have indicated I'm not a huge fan of this Government but they're probably right here. The original plan of the lockdown was to stop the NHS getting overwhlemed, not to stop the virus - that's unlikely to happen without a vaccine.

 

Places do need to open, we just need to be careful.

Edited August 13, 2020 by whiteowl