Coronavirus - Part Two.

[ECCOnoob 1,030]

16 minutes ago, RiffRaff said:

Perhaps these people who are bleating about their holidays might consider the news that there has been more than a million new cases  globally just in the last four days.

......and such figures will be continuous throughout passage of time until if or when a developed, tested and proven vaccine is found.   That's sort of what happens when you have incurable virus outbreak.

 

There is a far more important factor to be considered beyond merely the shock attention-grabbing numbers.  How many of those million new cases will actually result in people dying?  What is the statistical risk of those infected suffering  severe hospitalisation levels as a result?    How many of those million new cases will be people who may never suffer noticeable illness at all?  

 

Taking reasonable and realistic precautions to try to slow down or even prevent the infection is perfectly well.  Applying the quarantine is perfectly well - after all those choosing to go abroad should simply be prepared to accept a risk of sudden change or disruption.  The TV tabloids that laughing call themselves news programs might have been sticking on vox pox opinions from 'distraught' Tracy from Grimsby doing lots of blaming of the government -  but it's not as if the government hasn't forewarned people. They have been saying for weeks that local or wider lockdown or changes may apply should there be any sudden change of circumstances.    Let's face it, if the government didn't do something then people would blame them for lack of action.   

 

However the key point is you cannot and shouldn't be stopping people from travelling. The world has to keep turning.  There is no current end date for resolution of this outbreak - so just how long do we stay under the bed covers hiding. 

 

For all the scary numbers this outbreak is still very much causing fatality to the minority of the global population. 

[Bargepole23 337]

57 minutes ago, ECCOnoob said:

......and such figures will be continuous throughout passage of time until if or when a developed, tested and proven vaccine is found.   That's sort of what happens when you have incurable virus outbreak.

 

There is a far more important factor to be considered beyond merely the shock attention-grabbing numbers.  How many of those million new cases will actually result in people dying?  What is the statistical risk of those infected suffering  severe hospitalisation levels as a result?    How many of those million new cases will be people who may never suffer noticeable illness at all?  

 

Taking reasonable and realistic precautions to try to slow down or even prevent the infection is perfectly well.  Applying the quarantine is perfectly well - after all those choosing to go abroad should simply be prepared to accept a risk of sudden change or disruption.  The TV tabloids that laughing call themselves news programs might have been sticking on vox pox opinions from 'distraught' Tracy from Grimsby doing lots of blaming of the government -  but it's not as if the government hasn't forewarned people. They have been saying for weeks that local or wider lockdown or changes may apply should there be any sudden change of circumstances.    Let's face it, if the government didn't do something then people would blame them for lack of action.   

 

However the key point is you cannot and shouldn't be stopping people from travelling. The world has to keep turning.  There is no current end date for resolution of this outbreak - so just how long do we stay under the bed covers hiding. 

 

For all the scary numbers this outbreak is still very much causing fatality to the minority of the global population. 

It's not as clear cut as death or recovery though. The evidence is suggesting that there a number of outcomes which are serious and life changing.

[Pettytom 1]

14 minutes ago, Bargepole23 said:

It's not as clear cut as death or recovery though. The evidence is suggesting that there a number of outcomes which are serious and life changing.

And, as yet, poorly understood.

 

Which is a good reason for staying, at least partially, under the bedclothes for the time being.

[Pettytom 1]

2 hours ago, apelike said:

And now a cat has caught it after the experts saying that it can't happen.

 

Can't post a link as it from yahoo news but....

 

"A pet cat has tested positive for the coronavirus, the first confirmed case of the strain infecting an animal in the UK.

The government said the cat is thought to have been infected by its owners who had tested positive for COVID-19, though the animal and people have all fully recovered."

 

 

Which would be more worrying if it was the other way round.

[Annie Bynnol 612]

Travel refunds:

If anybody cancelled their Sykes Holiday Cottage before  they paid the full balance will now get their deposit back.

 

We cancelled our holiday otherwise the balance would have automatically been taken from our bank as per contract. 

While Sykes have not agreed to anything they have now changed their minds about their "rules". Thank you to customer doggedness  and the  BBC (that is 6 years of TV licence you saved me).

 

 

 

 

[El Cid 216]

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Transport thinks the COVID19 crisis is all over, he has gone on holiday to Spain with his family!

[the_bloke 17]

Spanish press reporting that the true death toll in Spain is likely to be 60% higher than reported, taking it to a level almost the same as the UK - with 20 million less population than the UK.

[PeteM01 10]

1 hour ago, the_bloke said:

Spanish press reporting that the true death toll in Spain is likely to be 60% higher than reported, taking it to a level almost the same as the UK - with 20 million less population than the UK.

Probably not:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-cases-ons-pandemic-statistics-a9581076.html

[catmiss 12]

5 hours ago, El Cid said:

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Transport thinks the COVID19 crisis is all over, he has gone on holiday to Spain with his family!

Reported to have received warning of pending isolation on return but still travelled because he didn’t want to be seen as having privileged information. Now said to be coming back early to do his 14 day isolation 

[petemcewan 27]

Arnold Lane,

I hope the following answers some of your questions.

 

It's only a small trial .But it contains  good news.

Right at the end is reference to Historical Group control.

 

I can only guess at an answer to your  question about the 30yr. old.

There may be some problems with that person's immune system like low levels of CD4, CD8  cells, that predisposes a person to getting a severe infection.

 

The Randomised Placebo Control Trial is the gold standard. But it's not the only way of doing trials.

I'm biased towards  the no placebo approach because people get active treatment .

 

 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9490

 

 

 

 

 

[Arnold_Lane 0]

2 hours ago, petemcewan said:

Arnold Lane,

I hope the following answers some of your questions.

 

It's only a small trial .But it contains  good news.

Right at the end is reference to Historical Group control.

 

I can only guess at an answer to your  question about the 30yr. old.

There may be some problems with that person's immune system like low levels of CD4, CD8  cells, that predisposes a person to getting a severe infection.

 

The Randomised Placebo Control Trial is the gold standard. But it's not the only way of doing trials.

I'm biased towards  the no placebo approach because people get active treatment .

 

 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9490

 

 

 

 

 

Pete, that is about treating patients with Covid.  
 

You said to dump the placebo arm of vaccine trials.  
 

Why are the scientists involved in developing a vaccine in the UK not using a historic control group instead of placebo?

[the_bloke 17]

5 hours ago, Arnold_Lane said:

Pete, that is about treating patients with Covid.  
 

You said to dump the placebo arm of vaccine trials.  
 

Why are the scientists involved in developing a vaccine in the UK not using a historic control group instead of placebo?

I can answer that for you, if you didn't already know the answer;

 

A Historic Control Group is made of solid unquestionable data from subjects given placebos in previous clinical trials. It needs a considerable number of subjects in order to provide enough data to be relied upon which matches the subjects used in any future trial, which can take years to amass.

 

This is a brand new vaccine for a brand new virus. There is no historical data to draw upon.  You can't just pluck subjects out of previous trials for similar but different viruses and vaccines to be your control group, your outcome won't live up to scrutiny and would be a waste of time.