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I really wish we were testing more. If, and it's a big if, I choose to pick up on some anecdotal evidence I may well have it and I probably had it yesterday and dropped off shopping for old people. Symptoms like headache (particularly behind the eyes - if that makes sense) is one I've read, aches are another. None are that awful for me, I've had far worse with flu.

 

I've a temperature /shivers that's seems to come and go, but no chest pains and a bit of a cough, which is productive. I'm self isolating now with the rest of tinfoil towers who have the same. I'm quite sure we'll be fine, its those we've come across that concerns.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Albert the Cat said:

Ok that was at best tenuous or at worst total garbage. 

 

The Oxford report is speculation based on epidemiology models. The only true way to get a reliable mortality statistic is by widespread testing, tracing and follow ups on closed cases. South Korea probably has the most reliable numbers and they are sitting at 3% across all groups. 

Not really speculation.  More a testable prediction based on a well-established model and informed by expert opinion and such data as are available so far.  Other models, equally plausible a priori, might come up with very different numbers for the fraction of people who've already been infected.  The only obvious way to decide between them would be to test a random sample of say one or two thousand people.

 

Also, the case fatality rate in South Korea is currently standing at 1.4% and rising, according to the ECDC numbers collated by Our World In Data.

 

By the way I'm not saying that the Oxford report is flawless.  I could pick a few holes in it.  It's not been peer reviewed, and is work in progress.

Edited by CaptainSwing

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1 hour ago, nikki-red said:

Only symptomatic NHS staff are being tested, in a bid to get them back to work ASAP if the tests are negative.

Testing everyone would be pointless, the results can take over 24 hours. You could catch the virus straight after your swabs were sent off, then get a negative result.

I'm not really up to speed on this, so this might be a daft question, but would that still apply if there was an antibody test?  Presumably the only tests currently available are looking for viral RNA?

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16 minutes ago, CaptainSwing said:

Not really speculation.  More a testable prediction based on a well-established model and informed by expert opinion and such data as are available so far.  Other models, equally plausible a priori, might come up with very different numbers for the fraction of people who've already been infected.  The only obvious way to decide between them would be to test a random sample of say one or two thousand people.

 

Also, the case fatality rate in South Korea is currently standing at 1.4% and rising, according to the ECDC numbers collated by Our World In Data.

 

By the way I'm not saying that the Oxford report is flawless.  I could pick a few holes in it.  It's not been peer reviewed, and is work in progress.

To determine mortality rate you can only use closed cases that have a defined outcome. You can't speculate on the survival rates of active cases. 

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12 minutes ago, Albert the Cat said:

To determine mortality rate you can only use closed cases that have a defined outcome. You can't speculate on the survival rates of active cases. 

True, but the Oxford report isn't primarily trying to determine mortality rates.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

I really wish we were testing more. If, and it's a big if, I choose to pick up on some anecdotal evidence I may well have it and I probably had it yesterday and dropped off shopping for old people. Symptoms like headache (particularly behind the eyes - if that makes sense) is one I've read, aches are another. None are that awful for me, I've had far worse with flu.

 

I've a temperature /shivers that's seems to come and go, but no chest pains and a bit of a cough, which is productive. I'm self isolating now with the rest of tinfoil towers who have the same. I'm quite sure we'll be fine, its those we've come across that concerns.

Good luck. 

 

That's you off limits for 7 days then & your family for 14, as well as everyone else you've come into contact with.  If I can remember all the advice right? 

 

Edited by Baron99

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1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

I really wish we were testing more. If, and it's a big if, I choose to pick up on some anecdotal evidence I may well have it and I probably had it yesterday and dropped off shopping for old people. Symptoms like headache (particularly behind the eyes - if that makes sense) is one I've read, aches are another. None are that awful for me, I've had far worse with flu.

 

I've a temperature /shivers that's seems to come and go, but no chest pains and a bit of a cough, which is productive. I'm self isolating now with the rest of tinfoil towers who have the same. I'm quite sure we'll be fine, its those we've come across that concerns.

Hope you feel better soon mate.

 

all the best. 

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1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

I really wish we were testing more. If, and it's a big if, I choose to pick up on some anecdotal evidence I may well have it and I probably had it yesterday and dropped off shopping for old people. Symptoms like headache (particularly behind the eyes - if that makes sense) is one I've read, aches are another. None are that awful for me, I've had far worse with flu.

 

I've a temperature /shivers that's seems to come and go, but no chest pains and a bit of a cough, which is productive. I'm self isolating now with the rest of tinfoil towers who have the same. I'm quite sure we'll be fine, its those we've come across that concerns.

29th December I started feeling unwell, New Years Eve in bed by 8pm (and I love a drink) then started with burning eyes, sore throat, and a cough, what a cough, I was in agony every time I coughed, my back was killing me, struggled to get out of a chair. I was getting very worried I might need a walking stick (I'm elderly but very fit) it was that bad.. 12th of January thank god I was back to normal.

I put it down to Flu, but Iv'e had Flu before and some how this was different . now I'm beginning to wonder.. 

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36 minutes ago, Baron99 said:

Good luck. 

 

That's you off limits for 7 days then & your family for 14, as well as everyone else you've come into contact with.  If I can remember all the advice right? 

 

I’m not sure why my family are off limits for 14 days? If you mean wife and kids I haven’t got any!

 

But yes, off limits for 7 days. We’ve all got the exact same symptoms but none of the classics, but it’s definately 7 days in quarantine and we will be fine.

 

But how do we define contact? Tesco man was no closer than 2m (he dumped the order and ran!) and any drop offs of groceries any of us did was, again 2m minimum and the recipients were instructed to wipe things down anyway.  

 

I’ve hardly seen a soul for a week or so outside the above I don’t need to contact anyone. But what if I was a halfwit at skeggy last weekend, I’d have potentially given to loads of people.

40 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Hope you feel better soon mate.

 

all the best. 

Thank you, much appreciated.

 

I feel odd, but more worried about others I was supposed to be helping out.

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I just feel a bit guilty for having been "working from home" since last Friday but I've been given a laptop with no encription fob.

 

Fine, I'm being paid to do jigsaws but I'd really much rather do the work I'm supposed to.

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3 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

I’m not sure why my family are off limits for 14 days? If you mean wife and kids I haven’t got any!

 

But yes, off limits for 7 days. We’ve all got the exact same symptoms but none of the classics, but it’s definately 7 days in quarantine and we will be fine.

 

But how do we define contact? Tesco man was no closer than 2m (he dumped the order and ran!) and any drop offs of groceries any of us did was, again 2m minimum and the recipients were instructed to wipe things down anyway.  

 

I’ve hardly seen a soul for a week or so outside the above I don’t need to contact anyone. But what if I was a halfwit at skeggy last weekend, I’d have potentially given to loads of people.

Thank you, much appreciated.

 

I feel odd, but more worried about others I was supposed to be helping out.

Don’t feel bad - we aren’t being tested so you weren’t to know.

 

the new testing kits could be a massive help it’s just how many can get hold of them.

 

I’m pretty sure this virus has already spread far more than recorded as suggested by the government because of mild symptoms.

 

up until a week a so ago you’d got thousands travelling and socialising freely yet some old people who are sat in nursing homes are getting it.

 

One thing i noticed is that the media reporting is very sensationalised - the number of people reported to have died today was 1/3 of yesterday but no mention.

 

yet there’s been weeks of “soars” and “leaps” and “jumps” every time it increased marginally.

 

the figures in Italy are tragic but levelling out also.

 

fingers crossed.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, makapaka said:

Don’t feel bad - we aren’t being tested so you weren’t to know.

 

the new testing kits could be a massive help it’s just how many can get hold of them.

 

I’m pretty sure this virus has already spread far more than recorded as suggested by the government because of mild symptoms.

 

up until a week a so ago you’d got thousands travelling and socialising freely yet some old people who are sat in nursing homes are getting it.

 

One thing i noticed is that the media reporting is very sensationalised - the number of people reported to have died today was 1/3 of yesterday but no mention.

 

yet there’s been weeks of “soars” and “leaps” and “jumps” every time it increased marginally.

 

the figures in Italy are tragic but levelling out also.

 

fingers crossed.

 

 

If I have got it, given the number of people we interact, I’m a very unlucky person! Up side is - if I have got it - it’s nowt. I’ve had worse flu and I’m asthmatic. I’ll put half a stone though by the time I’m done as I’m eating anything not nailed down. Starving!

 

Two other points that I considered today Italy and Spain have a percentage of smokers of 22-23%. We have a percentage rate of 13% (women) 16.5% (men). I’d be surprised if that isn’t a fair sized influence on mortality rates when this is all worked out.

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