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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Justin Smith said:

And all those who will be thrown into poverty (both here and abroad, including the third world) as the economy crashes, including those who will die as a result. Just because that will happen in the medium / long term doesn't make it any less significant.

 

Straight question LL, bearing in mind what I've just said,  if a repurposed drug came along which was effective against Covid 19, how effective would it have to be to get rid of this lockdown ? 

% improvement in death rate :

 

50% (i.e. a death rate of between one in 2,000 and one in 200)

65% (i.e. a death rate of between one in 3,000 and one in 300)

75% (i.e. a death rate of between one in 4,000 and one in 400)

80% Can't be bothered to work it out......

90% (i.e. a death rate of between one in 10,000 and one in 1,000)

99% (i.e. a death rate of between one in 100,000 and one in 10,000)

Have I missed something, or has LL, or anyone else, actually answered this question ?

It's all very well these people saying we should save every possible life, but at what point do they think we should start returning to normal life ? Let's be honest, it is all down to the death rate, if the latter was (provably) 1 in 10,000 we wouldn't be locking down at all, so, at what point should we be getting back to normal ? As a reminder, the current overall death rate is between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 100, the huge range is because nobody knows how many people have (or have had) this virus.  For someone over 80 with a serious pre-existing medical condition it'd be about 100X higher than for someone under 30 of normal weight and with no pre existing condition(s), lower still for women. Kids under 10 have such a low risk of death they don't even appear on most statistics.

Edited by Justin Smith

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46 minutes ago, apelike said:

Can you tell me what EU countries that signed up to the procurement scheme have and how many?

No and since we haven't all I know is we won't be getting any from that source.  Even if there were very few that signed up and each received very few the fact remains that we didn't even buy a ticket.

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7 minutes ago, Justin Smith said:

Have I missed something, or has LL, or anyone else, actually answered this question ?

It's all very well these people saying we should save every possible life, but at what point do they think we should start returning to normal life ? Let's be honest, it is all down to the death rate, if the latter was (provably) 1 in 10,000 we wouldn't be locking down at all, so, at what point should we be getting back to normal ? As a reminder, the current overall death rate is between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 100, the huge range is because nobody knows how many people have (or have had) this virus.  For someone over 80 with a serious pre-existing medical condition it'd be about 100X higher than for someone under 30 of normal weight and with no pre existing condition(s), lower still for women. Kids under 10 have such a low risk of death they don't even appear on most statistics.

What's the point Justin?  We know you want an end to the lockdown.  You're not going to budge from that position, no matter what evidence is put in front of you, and I'm not going to move from mine as deaths spiral out of control, until I see something massively game-changing, which is simply not on the cards at the moment.  

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1 hour ago, Lex Luthor said:

Especially now our NHS "heroes" have been silenced by threats .

 

 Do you have a link for the source you mention please?

Actually, I think I  might have found it.

 

It makes incredibly grim reading, if those projections are anywhere near correct for the UK, and I truly hope they are not, and that we can get off this trajectory sharpish.   Why is there such a discrepancy here?

 

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

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On 09/04/2020 at 15:30, trastrick said:

What's happening in Sheffield with the COVID19 restrictions?

 

This ex pat would like to know! 

 

No fish 'n chips, No pork pies?

 

No beer?

 

No buses?

 

Why not?

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Lex Luthor said:

Actually, I think I  might have found it.

 

It makes incredibly grim reading, if those projections are anywhere near correct for the UK, and I truly hope they are not, and that we can get off this trajectory sharpish.   Why is there such a discrepancy here?

 

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

I too hope the projections are well overstated.

 

I put the discrepancy down to this;

 

The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4."

 

This would appear to be a shortage of beds - and especially ICU beds - considerably higher than other countries.

 

Sincerely hope that this is not the case - although, for example,  I have heard it stated on a number of occasions that France has 3 times as many ICU beds as the UK,

Edited by Longcol

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/us-institute-revises-down-forecast-for-uk-coronavirus-deaths

These forecasts are constantly revised as you can see.

TheStates has varied between 60,000 and 200,000.

One factor constantly referred to is the importance of physical distancing and hygiene.

At least this is a controllable factor for many of us.

Not so much for many others both here and around the world.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Longcol said:

I too hope the projections are well overstated.

 

I put the discrepancy down to this;

 

The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4."

 

This would appear to be a shortage of beds - and especially ICU beds - considerably higher than other countries.

 

Sincerely hope that this is not the case - although, for example,  I have heard it stated on a number of occasions that France has 3 times as many ICU beds as the UK,

There’s so much data flying about no one knows.

 

id not seen the site referenced above before but an earlier poster referenced it so I had a look.

 

would have been about 6pm today and this same site said there would be 36000 deaths in Uk.

 

ive just come on here now and it’s 66000 so it’s nigh on doubled in 4 hours.  What’s changed since then?

 

i think all we can do is take it day by day and see what happens.

7 minutes ago, RJRB said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/us-institute-revises-down-forecast-for-uk-coronavirus-deaths

These forecasts are constantly revised as you can see.

TheStates has varied between 60,000 and 200,000.

One factor constantly referred to is the importance of physical distancing and hygiene.

At least this is a controllable factor for many of us.

Not so much for many others both here and around the world.

Just read this after I made the post above and make sense to what I read earlier.

 

shows you how quickly you can receive different information on different platforms though doesn’t it?

 

i thought projections had doubled two minutes

ago - but they’ve actually halved.

 

bizarre.

Edited by makapaka

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Lex Luthor said:

Actually, I think I  might have found it.

 

It makes incredibly grim reading, if those projections are anywhere near correct for the UK, and I truly hope they are not, and that we can get off this trajectory sharpish.   Why is there such a discrepancy here?

 

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

As Makapaka states, there's so much data flying around & anyone can probably find any data, including from dubious sources, to prove a point. 

 

For example, the following is from the Guardian from last November before we'd heard of COVID-19 & their figures appear to contradict the link above from IHME? 

 

The Guardian states the UK has over 100,000 beds available? 

 

"The number of beds in general and acute hospitals has fallen from 110,568 in April-June 2010 to 100,406 in the same period this year." 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

 

And don't forget, we now have the additional Nightingale hospital beds coming on line. 

Edited by Baron99

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Baron99 said:

As Makapaka states, there's so much data flying around & anyone can probably find any data, including from dubious sources, to prove a point. 

 

For example, the following is from the Guardian from last November before we'd heard of COVID-19 & their figures appear to contradict the link above? 

 

The Guardian states the UK has over 100,000 beds available? 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

Not all hospital beds are intensive care - it would appear there are 5,900 of them - 4,130 for adults.

 

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

 

 

The NHS also maintains critical care beds for patients who are seriously ill and require constant support. Unlike most other categories of hospital bed, the total number of critical care beds has increased in recent years. In 2011/12 there were around 5,400 critical care beds, by 2019/20 this had risen to 5,900 (NHS England 2019b) (Figure 5). Of these, around 70 per cent are for use by adults and the remainder for children and infants. 

 

There are over 5,000 new cases a day at the moment.

Edited by Longcol

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12 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

Honestly most countries have dealt with this better than us. I know they have a far less population density but Ireland are do a much better job than us. They locked before paddys night. We were still cheering horses on at Cheltenham and going to arena sized concerts. Those chickens will be coming home to roost very very soon.

UK has now gone +10k deaths from coronavirus, joining US, France, Italy and Spain- all who are exceed 10,000

 

Surprisingly China's death toll is 3,339 according to latest data. 

 

So yes, you're absolutely right, the UK has screwed this up big time and we are now just seeing the consequences 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Mr Fisk said:

UK has now gone +10k deaths from coronavirus, joining US, France, Italy and Spain- all who are exceed 10,000

 

Surprisingly China's death toll is 3,339 according to latest data. 

 

So yes, you're absolutely right, the UK has screwed this up big time and we are now just seeing the consequences 

The UK figure only includes deaths in hospital. The French figure inludes deaths in care homes as well - currently around  5,000.

Edited by Longcol

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