George Floyd- Killed By Police

[melthebell 862]

Its ok everybody, Colstons statue tripped and fell

https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2020/06/07/statue-of-bristol-slave-trading-tory-mp-tripped-and-fell-insist-police

[Branyy 10]

On 06/06/2020 at 00:57, Arnold_Lane said:

I'll expand on my own point for the benefit of Branny as it wasn't clear enough for my liking.

 

A common claim is, broadly, that black people are more likely to commit (some) crime and will therefore be more likely to die at the hands of police when taken into custody.  Simple enough.  But wrong.

 

A) If you hypothesize that blacks commit 50% of all crime in the US, for every 1000 crimes, 500 will be committed by black people. It follows, for every arrest you'd expect half to be of blacks.

 

B) Then hypothesize 1 in 1000 people die in police custody.  In 10,000 arrests you'd expect 10 deaths and 5 of them to be of blacks.  If it's more than 5 they are over-represented. 

 

Saying blacks commit more crime so it's not surprising more die in custody conflates the two things and completely misses the point.

Sorry, my reply was removed for some reason.

I don't think there's anything wrong with using that statistic... Here's more details and numbers:

 

- US population is about 328 millions - 76% (249 mil) is white population, 13% (42.6 mil) black

- total annual number of violent crimes (arrests for murders and robberies in 2017) was around 83000, of which 44% (around 33000) committed by white population, 54% (around 41000) by black. Here I'm making a simplification and don't consider recidivism, I assume one crime is committed by one person.

- number of white people shot to death by police in 2017 was 457, black 223 (data from Statista Research Department, 2020)

- if we assume that these shootings happens during of after arrest, this concludes the probability of white violent criminal shot by police - 1.38%, probability of black violent criminal shot by police 0.54%.

[lazarus 68]

The people who pulled down the statue in Bristol should have been stopped one way or another, you cannot change history. Why didn’t black lives matter when the thousands of blacks were getting massacred by blacks in Africa, why didn’t black lives matter when young black men are getting murdered by other blacks in this country, yesterdays events in Bristol was just a day out for them and as for the statue it should be retrieved and put back on its pedestal, don’t let rioters win.

[Halibut 12]

26 minutes ago, lazarus said:

The people who pulled down the statue in Bristol should have been stopped one way or another, you cannot change history. Why didn’t black lives matter when the thousands of blacks were getting massacred by blacks in Africa, why didn’t black lives matter when young black men are getting murdered by other blacks in this country, yesterdays events in Bristol was just a day out for them and as for the statue it should be retrieved and put back on its pedestal, don’t let rioters win.

They did - and there were plenty of people making a noise about it; the term black lives matter hadn't been coined yet then.

No you can't change history, but you choose how you look at it and who you choose to celebrate.

[Halibut 12]

1 hour ago, Branyy said:

Sorry, my reply was removed for some reason.

I don't think there's anything wrong with using that statistic... Here's more details and numbers:

 

- US population is about 328 millions - 76% (249 mil) is white population, 13% (42.6 mil) black

- total annual number of violent crimes (arrests for murders and robberies in 2017) was around 83000, of which 44% (around 33000) committed by white population, 54% (around 41000) by black. Here I'm making a simplification and don't consider recidivism, I assume one crime is committed by one person.

- number of white people shot to death by police in 2017 was 457, black 223 (data from Statista Research Department, 2020)

- if we assume that these shootings happens during of after arrest, this concludes the probability of white violent criminal shot by police - 1.38%, probability of black violent criminal shot by police 0.54%.

It's alright everybody, call off the protests, some bloke in Sheffield's just done a calculation on the back of a fag packet. Police brutality and systemic racism isn't even a thing.

[Branyy 10]

1 minute ago, Halibut said:

It's alright everybody, call off the protests, some bloke in Sheffield's just done a calculation on the back of a fag packet. Police brutality and systemic racism isn't even a thing.

I'm not saying it isn't, I'm saying that evidence would be desired if you're already making judgements. You suggested looking up the statistics and I showed you it isn't there. 

But feel free to point any flaws in those numbers.

[Halibut 12]

1 minute ago, Branyy said:

I'm not saying it isn't, I'm saying that evidence would be desired if you're already making judgements. You suggested looking up the statistics and I showed you it isn't there. 

But feel free to point any flaws in those numbers.

I think you've just got yourself in a bit of a tangle there. Lol.

[Branyy 10]

Just now, Halibut said:

I think you've just got yourself in a bit of a tangle there. Lol.

Can you explain why? Do you have more precise calculations? I'd love to see. Please, be specific and point out the flaws. I'm more than willing to correct myself.

[Halibut 12]

8 minutes ago, Branyy said:

Can you explain why? 

Yes, you said you weren't disputing that there's a history of police brutality and systemic racism and then you faff around with some numbers and claim you've proved there isn't.

[Branyy 10]

7 minutes ago, Halibut said:

Yes, you said you weren't disputing that there's a history of police brutality and systemic racism and then you faff around with some numbers and claim you've proved there isn't.

Let me clarify then. I'm not making any definite claim regarding systematic police brutality and racism (nowadays). Simply because I don't have enough information and evidence. If someone claims that statistics show that there is systematic racism of police, I want to see that statistics. Because the statistics that I've seen so far don't back up this claim at all, and I've shown how.

If you have objections against the numbers I used, feel free to correct those values or assumptions and show more precise conclusions. It should be easy if it's just "faffing with numbers".

Edited June 8, 2020 by Branyy

[Arnold_Lane 0]

1 hour ago, Branyy said:

Sorry, my reply was removed for some reason.

I don't think there's anything wrong with using that statistic... Here's more details and numbers:

 

- US population is about 328 millions - 76% (249 mil) is white population, 13% (42.6 mil) black

- total annual number of violent crimes (arrests for murders and robberies in 2017) was around 83000, of which 44% (around 33000) committed by white population, 54% (around 41000) by black. Here I'm making a simplification and don't consider recidivism, I assume one crime is committed by one person.

- number of white people shot to death by police in 2017 was 457, black 223 (data from Statista Research Department, 2020)

- if we assume that these shootings happens during of after arrest, this concludes the probability of white violent criminal shot by police - 1.38%, probability of black violent criminal shot by police 0.54%.

George Floyd wasn’t being arrested for a violent crime and he wasn’t shot.

 

What do the numbers show for all deaths in custody regardless of offence? 

[Branyy 10]

4 minutes ago, Arnold_Lane said:

George Floyd wasn’t being arrested for a violent crime and he wasn’t shot.

 

What do the numbers show for all deaths in custody regardless of offence? 

I don't know, I don't have the absolute numbers. If you show me some a source, I'll have a look and use exact numbers for these too.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Branyy