Are We Heading For A Recession Like In The 30s?

[tinfoilhat 11]

20 minutes ago, apelike said:

At the moment maybe, and as its early days yet I would expect more to follow as the current situation is not going to suddenly disappear. Give it another 6 months and see how France, Germany and the USA fair.

A little wager that theyll all do better than us ??

 

America will, they'll open up regardless of the dead stacking up. 

[tinfoilhat 11]

1 hour ago, CaptainSwing said:

Brazil too, and the Trump/Bolsonaro fanbase won't care.  Quite the opposite, if their economies are up and running they'll (have been told to) think that a few hundred thousand deaths were a price well worth paying.

In fairness to them, particularly the Americans, there's not much choice. They're not getting as much as us, they've still got to fork out for stuff like medical insurance, rent etc out of what ever the government deem to give them.

 

Back in April I looked at them on the telly with their placards "let us work" etc and laughed. "Look at those idiots! Don't they know there's a pandemic on?"

 

There are, if memory serves, 4.5m on furlough at the moment, staring at a cliff edge that's going to crumble away in October. By then pubs and restaurants might be shut again as well so schools can open. We should be prepared for similar protests.

 

 

[Pettytom 1]

3 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

 

 

There are, if memory serves, 4.5m on furlough at the moment, staring at a cliff edge that's going to crumble away in October. By then pubs and restaurants might be shut again as well so schools can open. We should be prepared for similar protests.

 

 

Indeed. The civil disobedience has yet to come. At the moment, give or take the odd gammons anti-masker, we’ve been pretty coherent as a country.

 

I can’t see that continuing when we still have a rich elite and yet, the end of furlough delivers  a significant underclass, struggling to eat.

 

There are bad times coming. That’s for sure.

[Tomm06 12]

20 hours ago, Pettytom said:

Indeed. The civil disobedience has yet to come. At the moment, give or take the odd gammons anti-masker, we’ve been pretty coherent as a country.

 

I can’t see that continuing when we still have a rich elite and yet, the end of furlough delivers  a significant underclass, struggling to eat.

 

There are bad times coming. That’s for sure.

So what do you reckon? Keep the furlough scheme going? 

[tinfoilhat 11]

2 minutes ago, Tomm06 said:

So what do you reckon? Keep the furlough scheme going? 

That or open everything else up. It's not like alot (the majority?) of the businesses that can't open weren't viable/profitable before March 2020. On the otherhand Debenhams, which has had it doors and website open for a while, for example has been wobbling for well over a year. 

 

I'm not sure. Boris wants to open up sporting events to spectators in october and if that happens everyone else will go "why not me?". Its worth noting theyre going to stop announcing the number of deaths every day.  He might go for broke, open everything up, brace himself for a couple of awful months before the vaccine arrives (If it does).

[redruby 279]

I agree with the view in this article that lifting restrictions too quickly would be counterproductive.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/13/lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-too-early-would-be-a-disaster

[Pettytom 1]

1 hour ago, Tomm06 said:

So what do you reckon? Keep the furlough scheme going? 

I don’t know what the short term answer is. It probably does involve continuing some of the furlough scheme.

 

Longer term, we have to look at a proper wealth tax to pay some of this huge debt back. We’ve some extraordinarily wealthy individuals and companies, it’s time for them to lose a bit of that wealth for the good of us all.

[Tomm06 12]

21 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

I don’t know what the short term answer is. It probably does involve continuing some of the furlough scheme.

 

Longer term, we have to look at a proper wealth tax to pay some of this huge debt back. We’ve some extraordinarily wealthy individuals and companies, it’s time for them to lose a bit of that wealth for the good of us all.

That sounds lovely but in the real world the country can't financially continue to support everyone. Specially when people have taken advantage already. Lastly it isn't down to the wealthy to help bail the world out. The sooner people get that out of their heads the quicker people may focus on a potential solution. 

[tinfoilhat 11]

6 minutes ago, Tomm06 said:

That sounds lovely but in the real world the country can't financially continue to support everyone. Specially when people have taken advantage already. Lastly it isn't down to the wealthy to help bail the world out. The sooner people get that out of their heads the quicker people may focus on a potential solution. 

Well it’s out of your head, so presumably you have a potential solution.

[Pettytom 1]

12 minutes ago, Tomm06 said:

That sounds lovely but in the real world the country can't financially continue to support everyone. Specially when people have taken advantage already. Lastly it isn't down to the wealthy to help bail the world out. The sooner people get that out of their heads the quicker people may focus on a potential solution. 

If you read what I wrote a bit more carefully, you’ll spot the word “some” in there. Not all, but some.

 

As for the longer term, it absolutely does fall to the wealthy to help sort this out. There is no other way.

 

Unless you have a cunning plan...

[tinfoilhat 11]

4 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

If you read what I wrote a bit more carefully, you’ll spot the word “some” in there. Not all, but some.

 

As for the longer term, it absolutely does fall to the wealthy to help sort this out. There is no other way.

 

Unless you have a cunning plan...

Indeed. Kids of wealthy people have had another leg up with A-Levels today.

 

Which is nice.

[Tomm06 12]

6 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

If you read what I wrote a bit more carefully, you’ll spot the word “some” in there. Not all, but some.

 

As for the longer term, it absolutely does fall to the wealthy to help sort this out. There is no other way.

 

Unless you have a cunning plan...

Fair enough. So once we have spent everyone else's money, which let's be honest would happen pretty bloody quick. Then what? 

 

Of course I don't have a plan, that's why it isn't my job to figure it out, I don't need one in order to know something isn't going to happen.